JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION
The Power Report is back for this split slate Wednesday, with a look at the four game early slate and the 11-game main slate gems.
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Data Solutions metrics that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players has actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicated regression could soon be coming.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
These help us identify who might be off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments today!
EARLY SLATE GEMS:
T.J. Rivera, 1B/3B, NYM (134 EP, +37 GAP): He has waned a bit lately in terms of hard contact, but he is still due in terms of GAP and facing a mediocre LHP in Patrick Corbin in an outstanding hitter’s park. Likely getting a two-hole hitter at $3,200 on DK in an outstanding situation. You can also go with Wilmer Flores, 1B/3B, NYM (121 EP, +52 GAP), who does a number on LHP and will cost you almost the same as Rivera ($3,300 on DK).
Yasmany Tomas, OF, ARI (165 EP, +8 GAP): Tomas is one of my favorite plays, especially at home. He has prodigious power and can get overlooked by casuals who see only Goldy home runs in their eyes. Tomas homered Tuesday, but his one week GAP heading into that game was an incredible +148. The matchup with NYM SP Matt Harvey, who is giving up 2.25 HR/9 IP and now has to control things in Chase Field, makes Tomas interesting once again.
Tim Beckham, SS, TB (179 EP, +43 GAP): CLE SP Josh Tomlin gets crushed by RHH power, of which Beckham is one of the best the Rays have. Playing in a hitters park in Cleveland, Beckham can start to cash in some of that owed power at the expense of Tomlin’s 2.0 HR/9 IP or greater HR rate over the past three seasons to RHH.
Justin Bour, 1B, MIA (167 EP, +5 GAP): So let us say you will NOT be rostering Lance McCullers in Miami. If that is the case, you may want to consider rostering Bour, who has been adding to his impressive at home vs. RHP resume and straight smashing overall lately, with an incredible 253 expected power over the last week.
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Alex Avila, C, DET (208 EP, +89 GAP): A guarantee to start behind the dish tomorrow (not an actual guarantee) due to the extra innings affair last night and James McCann catching all of it and the RHP nature of one Mr. Ubaldo Jimenez, who has a 5.41 SIERA this season. Ubaldo has also given up 2.14 HR/9 IP this season, feeding right into the power designs and skill set of Avila.
Staying with the Tigers, Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET (122 EP, +68 GAP) had a solid night in that slugfest and has more to catch up on in terms of his output. One thing to note is that Kinsler, unlike power bats like Avila, also has an above average contact rate of 85%, so he is making hard contact, a lot, and has less to show than he should. Those gaps are the most likely to close.
Oakland picked up the offense last night for nine runs, face Christian Bergman, who has done little in his little time this season and have a number of high expected power, GAP players like Khris Davis, OF (208 EP, +73 GAP), Ryon Healy, 1B/3B (175 EP, +54 GAP), Matt Joyce, who got one last night, OF (156 EP, +42 GAP), Jed Lowrie, 2B (134 EP, +37 GAP, 85% contact rate) and Yonder Alonso, 1B (197 EP, -46 GAP). The A’s have been near the bottom in production but they, as a team, may be ready to rise behind their power.
Cubs RHP Kyle Hendricks has stumbled out of the gate this season, with a 35% hard contact rate and 1.13 HR/9 IP, along with a SIERA of over 4.00 so far. The Reds have two LHH that can make Hendricks pay for his struggles this season against lefties, Joey Votto, obviously, 1B (173 EP, +12 GAP) and Scott Schebler, OF (157 EP, -10 GAP). Schebs is only batting sixth, usually, against RHP, and let down last night, but is only $3,400 on DK and if the wind is blowing out again, you can go back to Schebler for some power.
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters and another table for leaders in Most Owed Power. Enjoy!
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW
[pdf-embedder url=”https://www.fanvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/POWER-REPORT-051717-Jason-Walker.pdf” title=”POWER REPORT 051717 Jason Walker”]