JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION
Hey-yo! We have decided to bring the Power Report from Premium Slack Chat to its own article. For those uninitiated to the Power Report, it is where we look at metrics like:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Data Solutions metrics that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players has actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicated regression could soon be coming.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The chart below will help us identify who might be off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments today!
Over the course of the season, the top hitters will finish between 150-200 with their “expected power,” but in our 30 day scans, this is about normal.
EARLY SLATE GEMS:
Daniel Robertson, SS/3B, TB (199 EP, +75 GAP) & Tim Beckham, SS, TB (192 EP, +46 GAP): Chris Sale is going to be a very popular play on the early slate at pitcher, so the tournament move is to look to see if the opposing team has potential to flip the script on him and gain major ground on the field. Robertson has shown excellent power in his 41 ABs and Beckham has exploded this season, temporarily making Rays fans stop reminding each that their team to Beckham over Buster Posey.
Miguel Montero, C, CHI (185 EP, +47 GAP): Montero should start a catcher after Willson Contreras started last night in STL. Montero has a tough matchup against Carlos Martinez, but might still be a nice one off catcher punt, especially considering the hard contact so far this season, and progression to come for his results.
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (156 EP, +26 GAP): Smoak draws the matchup against whoever Seattle puts out there as a spot starter. Smoak has been making hard contact and the fly ball rate has come with him, getting 39%. When Smoak goes into slumps, it is when his ground ball rate leaps and the fly balls cease. You would like to see him be in the mid-40s, but for Smoak, 39% is just fine and he is of course very dangerous in Rogers Centre.
Carlos Correa, SS, HOU (154 EP, +0 GAP): Correa has the power and these stats have shown it is no fluke. Going against Luis Severino, who may also be popular, Correa has the power and the park to make things difficult for the Yankees starter, who has given up 1.53 HR/9 IP this season.
Jason Castro, C, MIN (154 EP, +67 GAP): Check the lineups, as even though the Twins will be facing a RHP (Clevenger), Castro caught last night and usually that means the backup would play. In this case, the Twins backup, Chris Gimenez, has a 212 expected power in 33 AB, and a massive GAP of +142 so he would be a fine discount option.
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Khris Davis, OF, OAK (243 EP, +102 GAP): I hear people saying how much he has stunk and, results wise, they are correct, and his low contact rate has a lot to do with that. But when he has made contact, he should have a lot more to show for it. Even in his last seven games, Davis has a healthy 168 expected power, but an output of zero. We have all seen a Khrush Groove hot streak, and the A’s as a team, and Davis certainly individually, are ready to pop. Maybe Nick Martinez is just the guy to unlock all of the goodness.
Speaking of which, go ahead and include Ryon Healy, 1B/3B, OAK (206 EP, +77 GAP), Yonder Alonso, 1B, OAK (225 EP, -16 GAP), and Jed Lowrie, 2B, OAK (148 EP, +43 GAP) into your Saturday plans as well.
Jay Bruce, OF, NYM (204 EP, +55 GAP): Mets let us down last night against Matt Garza, but they can pick it back up again as Bruce, who has been locked in with power, gets to face Kyle Davies, who brings his 1.5+ HR/9 IP and 36% hard contact allowed rate into a hitter’s haven in Miller Park.
Since we are in the stacky mood, you will find T.J. Rivera, 1B/3B, NYM (151 EP, +35 GAP) and The Grandy Man, Curtis Granderson, OF, NYM (146 EP, +47 GAP) in the mix for usage against Davies as well.
He got one last night, but another good, low cost, power hitter will be Justin Bour, 1B, MIA (157 EP, +43 GAP), who is often deadly against RHP at home. And Julio Teheran is back to his old self against LHH, offering up a .396 wOBA, 7.15 xFIP and 2.2 HR/9 IP to lefties, along with a 40.6% Hard contact rate.
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW
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