MLB Pitching Prognostication 9/3/16 (Early Slate)

The early slate this afternoon consists of four games and features a couple of aces and a couple of mid- tier pitchers with high upside that carry a lot of risk.  I would avoid playing cash games today for a couple of reasons.  First, since there are only four games, it is just too high variance for me to want to play.  Second, the two aces are in less than ideal matchups with Madison Bumgarner facing the Cubs and Jake Arrieta facing the Giants.  If I did play cash, Bumgarner would be my number one pitcher because he has more strikeout upside than Arrieta does.  He is also priced lower than usual on most sites to account for his difficult matchup.

For GPPs, I want to target the mid-tier arms.  Blake Snell would be interesting but he is dealing with a leg injury and facing a very dangerous Blue Jays team.  There is a ton of risk there even without the injury so I will pass on him. Dan Straily, however, is worth a look.  He has been pitching really well lately, with the exception of his last start.  His swinging strike numbers have been increasing in the second half and people haven’t really noticed.  The Cardinals are a potent offense but have been slumping lately against really bad pitchers like Wily Peralta.  This is a great spot to roll the dice with Straily at very low ownership.  Joe Musgrove is the other pitcher I am interested in for GPPs.  He is also in a risky matchup (hence why I recommend avoiding cash games) but he has flashed a ton of strikeout potential when he isn’t getting lit up.  On a slate with so few options it is worth the risk to roster a cheap pitcher with a ton of upside and hope for the best.