MLB Pitching Prognostication 9/30/16
All pricing is DraftKings unless otherwise stated
We’re reaching the last couple days of the MLB regular season with playoff races still to be determined. Today showcases another 15-game slate with pitching options at every tier. Here are the tournament plays that will end your season in style!
Yu Darvish – TEX vs. TB – $12,700
First thing that caught my attention was the ridiculous price tag for someone pitching in Texas. The next thing that caught my attention was his opponent, the Rays. Even though I hate the price tag, I can’t imagine a better scenario for one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game. I mention how I want a perfect matchup when I pay up for pitching and Darvish has a near perfect one. The strikeouts will be there as Tampa strikes out at about 26% against right-handers, he’s a -211 favorite and should be in line for the win, and although the park isn’t all that favorable, the weather is a lot better than it was a month ago. If you’re paying up at pitcher, Darvish could be a nice pivot off Bumgarner.
Taijuan Walker – SEA vs. OAK – $8,900
RHP Taijuan Walker has been much better since coming back from injury, couple that with some mechanics changes and we have the Walker we’ve wanted all season long. Today he gets an Oakland team that is boom or bust. We’ve seen them strikeout quite a bit lately, but we’ve also seem them put runs on the board on even the best of pitchers. In Safeco, Walker will have a friendly park to pitch in, a projected lineup with two above-average hitters, and a playoff race in the balance. In a must-win game, I expect Taijuan Walker to perform at his best and give the Mariners the best shot at winning.
Carlos Martinez – STL vs. PIT – $9,200
This is more of a feeling than an actual play. The Cardinals are in a ‘win or go home’ situation. RHP Carlos Martinez has been their best pitcher all year long and will get the nod against a Pirates team with nothing to play for. Yes, the Pirates do a great job at limiting strikeouts, but Martinez has also shown he’s willing to go deep into games without racking up the K’s. Right-handed hitters are hitting a mediocre .248 wOBA on the season and this Pirates lineup is predominantly right-handed. If we get confirmation of a righty heavy lineup from Pittsburgh, I will have my fair share of Carlos Martinez in tournaments.
Madison Bumgarner – SF vs. LAD – $11,700
Well, this has to be the undisputed top play of the day considering how much is on the line for the Giants. LHP Madison Bumgarner will start at home against a Dodgers team who struggles mightily against lefties. This is another must-win scenario as the three teams fighting for the Wild Card spots are all separated by one game. The best hitters in this Dodgers lineup are primarily left-handed and Bumgarner has held lefties to a .228 wOBA and a .121 ISO on the year. I mentioned they will be at home which is the best pitchers park in baseball. Everything is lining up beautifully for Bumgarner to have his most important start of the season and get one step closer to a playoff appearance. Roster Mad Bum in any game type tonight.
Another night where top-tier pitching prevails. We’ve seen it the last few nights and it’s worked like a charm. It’s also a good strategy to target teams with something to play for as some of the teams out of contention will pull their players early. Again, tonight I’ll be rostering top arms and filling in my lineups with value stacks that provide upside in tournaments. There’s plenty of games to find viable cheap stacks and I’ll be sure to go over them in the last ‘Deeper Dive’ of the season. Till next time, party animals!