MLB Pitching Prognostication 9/29/16
All pricing is DraftKings unless otherwise stated
Yesterday we felt a little uncomfortable about pitching considering the names that were taking the mound, but we performed very well. Guys like Miguel Gonzalez, Francisco Liriano, Blake Snell all performed extremely well. Tonight we have a similar slate where we’re not completely confident in these names but some do possess great matchups. Let’s dive in!
Jose Quintana – CWS vs. TB – $9,700
The king of the under. Jose Quintana has hit the under in every start except one. If the trend continues tonight, Quintana will be a staple of winning lineups. Not only does he go deep into games, but he’ll be able to pick up a strikeout per inning against a team who strikes out at 29% against lefties! It’s no secret that Tampa is mediocre in all facets of the game and a good pitcher like Quintana should capitalize on that. Roster Jose Quintana with confidence in any game type.
Marcus Stroman – TOR vs. BAL -$8,300
Toronto suffered a brutal loss yesterday when they blew a save and allowed Baltimore to take one in the late innings. With that being said, one thing has held true this series and that’s that Toronto pitching has dominated. We saw Aaron Sanchez and Francisco Liriano go deep into games and post double-digit strikeouts. If the trend continues this game Stroman should pitch decent enough to provide some tournament value. Although Baltimore hits righties exceptionally well, Stroman has limited right-handed bats to just a .309 wOBA on the season and an ISO of .138. If Stroman can limit the hard contact and go deep into this ballgame, we’ll be looking pretty in tournaments.
Johnny Cueto – SF vs. COL – $11,200
Another arm against the Rockies away from Coors field. It’s becoming a trend in the industry and one that’s providing great results. We saw what Moore and Samardzija were able to do against this team and Cueto is a better pitcher than both. If Cueto can have another double-digit strikeout game like the previous two in this series, he’ll be the top-tier arm to own tonight. Cueto has held both sides of the plate to wOBA’s well below league average and ISO’s reaching a league low. The park is also a boost as this is one of the friendliest pitcher’s park in the league, completely opposite to what Coors Field is to the Rockies. If you’re going to pay up tonight, Cueto seems like a safe option with some upside.
Danny Duffy – KC vs. MIN – $10,500
LHP Danny Duffy has struggle lately but that can be attributed to the difficult matchups. Today he gets a Minnesota team that struggles a bit more against lefties than they do righties. Guys like Sano, Kepler, Buxton, and Polanco all have extreme strikeout rates against left-handed pitchers which fits into the hands Duffy. Duffy has been electric this year, striking out lefties at 35% and righties at 25%, well above league average against both sides of the plate. If we get the good Danny Duffy tonight, he will blow pass his salary and provide extreme value in tournaments. I’ll confirm this play as the lineup comes out later today on the ‘Final Countdown’.
Although some of the names going today seem a bit risky, there are some trustworthy pitchers with favorable matchups. We’ve seen lately that cheap stacks have been taking down tournaments and the same can happen tonight. If you want to pay up, feel free to use some cheap high upside stacks to get the upside you need in tournaments. I will most likely roster one of the high priced guy and pair according to the stack I’m using. As lineups come out we’ll have a better understanding of the slate and where we can go. Till next time, party animals!