MLB Pitching Prognostication 9/28/16
All pricing is DraftKings unless otherwise stated
The MLB season is coming to an end, but we still have big tournaments in these last few days that we can take advantage of. Like I do every day, I’ll provide a few pitching options that are usable in GPPs to help you increase upside. Yesterday went fairly well but it was also difficult to fail considering most viable pitchers had good outings. Let’s take a look at a few pitchers going tonight!
Francisco Liriano – TOR vs. BAL – $8,400
Pricing when it comes to pitcher, seems a bit tight today leading me to start off with LHP Francisco Liriano. We’ve documented on the ‘Deeper Dive’ that after his bullpen stint, Liriano has been a new pitcher. He’s throwing more first-pitch strikes and working ahead in counts all while keeping the swing and miss numbers intact. Baltimore is worse against left-handed pitching on the year, and showcase a projected lineup which features five hitters who can strikeout multiple times. It’s also worth noting that only one hitter is hitting above-average vs. southpaws. If we get the good Liriano tonight, he’ll make for excellent tournament value.
Miguel Gonzalez – CWS vs. TB – $7,300
Miguel Gonzalez is a matchup pitcher in which you have to pick and choose your spots with him. At home, against a Tampa team which hasn’t hit any starter this series, Gonzalez is in a perfect scenario to perform well. It’s been well documented that the Rays strikeout at a really high rate and today is no different. The projected lineup has a 26% K-rate against righties and that should play into Gonzalez’s favor. If Miguel Gonzalez can go seven innings with close to a strikeout per inning, he will definitely make you happy in GPPs.
Jeff Samardzija – SF vs. COL – $8,900
Colorado on the road is just a different team and doesn’t hit well outside of Coors. We saw Matt Moore dominate them yesterday and go for a career high in strikeouts. Although the Rockies struggle a little more against lefties, I don’t mind the Shark in this situation when you consider how tough pricing is. If he commands his fast ball like he did last start and paints the outside corners, Samardzija could be in for a nice night. This play will depend on the Rockies lineup and will be confirmed on the ‘Deeper Dive’ later tonight.
Cole Hamels – TEX vs. MIL – $10,700
The first two games have had similar results; the Brewers have been able to hit Texas pitching. This is a play I’m looking to fade in tournaments because of ownership but one where the numbers are in favor of Hamels. We know how bad the Brewers have struggled this year and today we might see more of the same. The projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 28% which plays into the favor of LHP Cole Hamels. In this series we haven’t seen the usual Texas heat so we can knock that off the board and hopefully get a decent outing here from Hamels. I will revisit this matchup once a lineup comes out on the ‘Deeper Dive’.
Pricing seems a bit tough today with most of the decent arms being priced up. These are the guys that initially caught my eye when looking for tournament options and more can arise as lineups come out. Paying up for bats is my usual strategy and these guys let me do that. Make sure to tune in later today as I give my final takes on these pitchers and how I rank them. Till next time, party animals!