MLB Pitching Prognostication 9/27/16
All pricing is DraftKings unless otherwise stated
What a roller coaster of emotions yesterday watching that Marlins game. Time to regroup and get back into DFS mode tonight, kind of how DraftCheat did yesterday (shout out for taking down the Gold Glove). Anyway, let’s dive into the slate with some pitchers you should consider for tournaments tonight.
Julio Teheran – ATL at PHI – $9,500
Julio Teheran is clearly Atlanta’s best pitcher and takes the mount at home today against a bottom-tier Phillies team. Every time the Phillies play against a right-handed pitcher, they feature one hitter that’s above-average vs. righties. You couple that with a team that strikes out at about 25% vs. right-handed pitching and Julio Teheran is in an excellent spot not only to dominate the lineup, but to pick up the win and smash tournament value. Julio Teheran is in play tonight and I’ll have exposure in GPPs.
Matt Moore – SF vs. COL – $7,300
Lefties outside of Coors are the Achilles Heel for this Colorado team. LHP Matt Moore has held both sides of the plate to a .316 wOBA and a below average ISO this season. We get him a home which is one of the best pitchers parks in baseball and now Matt Moore becomes an interesting play in tournaments. If you’re looking to get away from the monster price tags that the top-tier guys have, Moore makes an excellent play in tournaments where he can exceed his price tag with a dominant outing. All three requirements are met in this matchup as he’ll face German Marquez, putting Moore in line for the win.
Ian Kennedy – KC vs. MIN – $8,900
RHP Ian Kennedy has struggled lately, but that can be attributed to the tough matchups he’s had to encounter. Tonight he’ll face a Twins team that got to him a few outings ago, but who he struck out at a nice rate. This time he’ll be at home where he’s been much better and an upgrade considering he faced them in Minnesota. We’ll have to wait for a lineup to solidify Kennedy as an option, but although the Twins hit righties much better than lefties, they also strikeout at about 25% as a team against them. This fits right into Kennedy’s hands as he’s a strikeout pitcher who can rack them up in bunches. If you’re looking for another arm who can reach 3x and be in line for a win, Kennedy is your man.
Chris Sale – CHW vs. TB – $14,000
This price tag is a bit absurd, but we saw what Shields was able to do yesterday. If Shields was able to go six innings, pick up a strikeout per frame, and get a win, Sale can do a lot more. The price tag is up there, but if you have a cheap pairing that you feel confident in, Sale would be my guy tonight. There’s nothing to say about the Rays except that they strike out at a really high rate. If we continue to see the Sale that goes deep into ball games, he can easily post a line of 8 innings with 10K’s and a win. Sale is my top-tier option of the night if I were to go there.
The top-tier pitchers in tonight’s slate are in great spots but it’s hard to fit them in with these huge price tags. I’m a huge fan of the second-tier of pitchers and seems like a way I want to go in tournaments. It lets me afford better bats and increase my upside in tournaments. Like always I’ll validate all these picks as lineups come out on the ‘Deeper Dive’ later today. As always, go for high upside in tournaments and shoot for pitchers that will return great pt/$ numbers. Till next time, party animals!