MLB Deep Dive 9/30/16 by DraftCheat
Madison Bumgarner vs. Dodgers
Giants’ LHP Madison Bumgarner will try to keep his team’s playoff hopes alive in a must win game vs. the Dodgers, who don’t have much to play for having already clinched the division. We’ll have to see what kind of lineup the Dodgers choose to roll out tonight, but regardless, Bumgarner, who has always pitched well in high-pressure situations, needs to be at the top of your list for cash games and in strong consideration for GPPs as well.
Carlos Martinez vs. Pirates
The Cardinals will rely on RHP Carlos Martinez to shut down the Pirates as they close in on a playoff spot tonight, and given the overworked state of the Cardinals’ bullpen right now we have to expect Martinez to work deep into this game. Martinez has been better at home this year and in the past, and even in a non-ideal matchup against the Pirates I expect Martinez to come up with a clutch performance tonight. He’s certainly got the stuff to do it and depending on the Pirates lineup tonight may be a top option tonight.
Taijuan Walker vs. Athletics
Mariners’ RHP Taijuan Walker has been getting ahead of hitters and getting a ton of whiffs since making some mechanical tweaks a few starts ago, but the home runs have continued to plague him and he’s been unable to avoid blow up innings. He’s a risky play tonight and not nearly as safe as the above two pitchers, but he has always been better at home and I do like the matchup for him against a strikeout-prone A’s squad. Walker has a lot of upside in this matchup and his ownership should be much lower than Bumgarner’s and Martinez’s. He’s an excellent play in your GPP action.
Daniel Norris @ Braves
Tigers LHP Daniel Norris has quietly been very impressive for the Tigers over the second half of this season, and he should fly under the radar once again tonight. He’s registered a double digit swinging strike rate in 5 consecutive starts, and gets the benefit of a nice park shift and pitching against an NL lineup tonight. I don’t like targeting pitchers against the hot-hitting Braves right now, but in tournaments at what I expect to be very low ownership on Norris, he makes for a great play with a significant amount of upside.
There are a lot of really poor pitchers taking the mound tonight as the season draws to a close, and while I’m normally a big fan of rostering cheap pitchers in GPPs, I’m not seeing anything in the bargain bin worth discussing. Tune into the Deeper Dive today to get my final takes on pitching as lineups come out.
Rockies vs. Brent Suter & Brewers bullpen
Let’s start right at the top with a Rockies team in Coors Field that gets to face a minor league pitcher in a bullpen game for the Brewers. The Rockies were absolutely dreadful in San Francisco over the last three games, but couldn’t land in a better spot tonight back at home against a pitcher that should not be making MLB starts and against a Brewers pen that doesn’t have many quality arms. It’s difficult to imagine this Rockies squad failing in this spot and at least in cash games they need to be on your short list, and they deserve strong consideration for tournament play as well.
Royals vs. Ryan Merritt
The Royals hitters also get a tremendous matchup against Indians rookie LHP Ryan Merritt who has struggled at the minor league level for most of this season and now will be tasked with shutting down a hot hitting Brewers team. Nobody on the Royals makes for a particularly tremendous target, but as a whole this team should do work against an Indians team that is now gearing up for the playoffs. I prefer a full Royals stack as opposed to one-offs if utilizing Royals tonight.
Diamondbacks vs. Edwin Jackson
The effectiveness of Edwin Jackson can come and go, but when he’s off his game it leads to offensive explosions and that is my prediction for the Diamondbacks at home tonight. Much like the Rockies, the D-Backs perform much better at home than on the road. If Jackson doesn’t have his good stuff tonight and/or can’t find his command, the powerful Diamondbacks bats may do some serious damage. Paul Goldschmidt, as per usual, tops the list of targets, but really any of the bats in the top five or six of this lineup are very much in play.
Rangers vs. Matt Andriese
I like Andriese as a pitcher, as he throws strikes and misses his fair share of bats, but when he gets hit he gets hit extremely hard with some of the hardest contact allowed of any MLB pitcher. Against the red hot Rangers lineup that has quality hitters 1-9, he’s likely to run into a lot of trouble here. My favorite play on the Rangers is the scorching, rejuvenated Carlos Gomez, but this entire lineup is in play and is my favorite pivot off of the Rockies if I’m stacking one of the high-total teams.
Astros vs. Daniel Wright
It remains very warm in Los Angeles which helps mitigate the pitchers park that we usually see at Angels Stadium, and the Astros get a premium matchup against the woeful Daniel Wright and a poor Angels’ bullpen. I expect the Astros to go very overlooked tonight as people don’t typically look to this park for hitting, but make no mistake, the powerful Astros have a ton of upside in this matchup and it should play more like a hitter’s park tonight than we are typically used to seeing.