MLB Deep Dive 9/28/16 by DraftCheat
In the MLB Deep Dive, Peter Christensen (aka DraftCheat) brings you the most hard hitting, in-depth, MLB DFS analysis available in the industry today! Be sure to check out his thoughts on the days slate before you set your lineups and remember… it’s “Analysis so good… it feels like cheating!”
Jake Arrieta @ Pirates
Cubs’ RHP Jake Arrieta is the top pitcher taking the mound tonight and will get the benefit of throwing in great pitcher’s park at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, but with the Cubs having nothing to play for, the Pirates lacking strikeouts in their lineup, and Arrieta not being a pitcher that typically dominates anyway, do we really want to pay top dollar for a pitcher with so many question marks? If there are value bats you love tonight and you have the salary, by all means use Arrieta, but he shouldn’t be a building block of your lineup.
Cole Hamels vs. Brewers
We’ve seen pitchers that have very low strikeout upside dominate this Brewers lineup that is whiffing at near historic rates. Hamels should be a popular selection tonight, and he could certainly be in for a big game. But there are concerns here as well. Hamels has not pitched well at home this season, can be home run prone to right-handed bats, and also does a poor job holding runners, and the Brewers have a ton of speed near the top of their lineup in Jonathan Villar, Hernan Perez, and Orlando Arcia. This is one of those weird spots where I may have exposure to Hamels on some lineups and Brewers stacks on others, as this matchup could easily go in either direction and both sides of it have a ton of upside.
Jeff Samardzija vs. Rockies
Giants’ RHP Jeff Samardzija has pitched much better in the second half of this season as he’s rediscovered what may be his best pitch – a curveball. The Shark was not throwing that pitch at all for the first half of the year and is now utilizing it nearly 20% of the time. It’s a big change for him and a change that has resulted in better results, particularly against left-handed bats. He’s my top point-per-dollar pitcher tonight in a home matchup vs. the Rockies who struggle on the road, particularly in a ginat park like AT&T Park in San Francisco. Roster Samardzija with confidence in all formats tonight.
Jose De Leon vs. Padres
I love the matchup and talent for De Leon here, but the question mark is how deep into this game he will be allowed to pitch. The Dodgers are doing some strange things with their starting rotation right now, and it’s enough to make me hesitant to roll De Leon out in my lineups. But I do think he pitches very well while he’s in the game, and if the Dodgers do let him throw 90+ pitches he should be in contention for the top point-per-dollar play on the night in a great matchup against a strikeout happy Padres team in pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
Francisco Liriano vs. Orioles
Not a pitcher to roster for those looking for safety, Jays LHP Francisco Liriano nevertheless brings a ton of upside to the table as he seems to have rediscovered some velocity and command after pitching out of the bullpen for a few outings. Liriano has looked downright nasty since then, and in a home matchup against an Orioles team that can certainly swing and miss at their fair share of pitches, there is no doubt Liriano has some upside in this matchup. Of course, his command can desert him at any time, and if it does he could be in for a short outing with all of the power the Orioles bring to the table. It’s a dice roll on Liriano tonight, but I think he’s got a decent chance of delivering a top performance at what should be very low ownership and a fairly low salary as well.
Red Sox vs. Bryan Mitchell
Yankees RHP Bryan Mitchell continues to survive at the MLB and get starts despite missing almost literally zero bats with his pitches. His K/9 vs. right-handed hitters remains under 2.0, and you simply can’t survive for long in baseball with a number that low. Especially against an extremely good offense like the Red Sox in a bad pitcher’s park in Yankee Stadium. Load up any and all Red Sox bats tonight and reap the benefits.
Brewers vs. Cole Hamels
This is GPP only, and I mentioned it in my right up of Cole Hamels. Hamels could very well dominate here, but the Brewers have power and speed from the right-hand side, both of which are the kryptonite to Cole Hamels finding success. Base runners have stolen 24 bases this year off of Hamels and just 3 have been caught stealing, so expect Jonathan Villar, Hernan Perez, Orlando Arcia, and perhaps even Ryan Braun to be off to the races here. I absolutely love this stack in GPPs as it has extreme boom potential (though a high potential to completely bust as well).
Detroit vs. Zach McAllister
The Tigers continue to crush right-handed pitching, last night teeing off on Mike Clevinger and the Indians’ pen. The Tribe has nothing to play for at this point, so they aren’t likely to use many of their good bullpen arms, especially if the Tigers get to McAllister early in this one. Miguel Cabrera is absolutely locked in right now and deserves strong consideration, as do Victor and J.D. Martinez and of course my main man Justin Upton who is red hot right now and continues to crush the baseball.
Twins vs. Jason Vargas
The ballpark leaves something to be desired, but a matchup with Jason Vargas is about as good as it gets. Vargas has always been home run prone, but he’s well past his “prime” and has been getting hit very hard at the MLB level after not fairing well in the minor leagues either. The Twins make for a sneaky stack tonight even on the road in a tough park to hit in.
Rangers vs. Chase Anderson
Brewers’ RHP Chase Anderson isn’t terrible, but he’s got a tough task ahead of him pitching in Texas against a deep and talented Rangers lineup. Anderson is a reverse splits pitcher, which bodes well for the success of a scorching hot Carlos Gomez, Ian Desmond, and Adrian Beltre, though of course Carlos Beltran, Rougned Odor, and Jonathan Lucroy are in play as well. This is a top stack tonight and one you should have exposure to.