MLB Deep Dive 9/27/16 by DraftCheat
In the MLB Deep Dive, Peter Christensen (aka DraftCheat) brings you the most hard hitting, in-depth, MLB DFS analysis available in the industry today! Be sure to check out his thoughts on the days slate before you set your lineups and remember… it’s “Analysis so good… it feels like cheating!”
Max Scherzer vs. Diamondbacks ($14,200 DK; $11,300 FD)
Nationals’ RHP Max Scherzer checks in the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, FanDuel, and pretty much everywhere else across the DFS industry. I’m not normally a fan of paying this high of a percentage of my cap space for a single pitcher, but today may be the exception. Scherzer absolutely dominates right-handed pitching (38% K-rate, 3% BB-rate), and the Diamondbacks are extremely right-handed heavy at the moment. If they do choose to go with more left-handed hitters, they’ll have to take out some of their more dangerous hitters from the lineup. Either way, Scherzer should dominate whatever lineup the Diamondbacks roll out. Scherzer is both the highest floor and highest ceiling pitcher today, and even at his enormous price tags is worth paying for.
Chris Sale vs. Rays ($14,000 DK; $10,800 FD)
Just below Scherzer in price tag is White Sox’ LHP Chris Sale, who is coming off a terrible start in Philadelphia against a Phillies lineup that actually profiled well against him. I wasn’t surprised to see Sale perform poorly in that matchup, and hopefully if you watched the Deeper Dive that day you were able to avoid the Sale disaster. It’s a new day, however, and today I love Sale. At home against a Rays team that has strikeouts up and down the lineup, Sale should pitch deep into this game and double-digit strikeouts are very much in play. I don’t like Sale quite as much as Scherzer (pending lineups), but he’s close, and I fully expect both pitchers to dominate in what could be their last outings of the year.
Noah Syndergaard @ Marlins ($10,700 DK; $10,800 FD)
Mets’ phenom RHP Noah Syndergaard will take on the Marlins in Miami in a game the Mets will every much want to win after last night’s loss in the most emotional sporting event I can remember watching. The Marlins continue to deal with the tragic loss of Jose Fernandez, and while it flat out sucks to analyze a game this way, it’s easy to imagine a team that is (understandably) completely spent after giving everything they had left in last night’s amazing performance. I’m expecting a big performance from Thor in this game, and at least on DK it’s probably worth the price savings to jump down from Scherzer and Sale to Syndergaard. On FanDuel, where the prices are similar, I’d probably still prefer Sale and Scherzer.
Ian Kennedy vs. Twins ($8,900 DK; $8,300 FD)
Royals RHP Ian Kennedy is not a particularly fun guy to roster, as he gives up too many home runs and doesn’t seem to deliver huge performances enough. But depending on how strikeout prone the Twins lineup is tonight, he will be in play as a big home favorite in great pitchers park. The Twins have seen their team’s strikeout rate climb all season long and in the right matchup Kennedy has upside to deliver 7-10 strikeouts. He might have it tonight and should deliver value on his salary if he does. I do like him better on a site like FanDuel that values the win so heavily.
Jose De Leon @ Padres ($8,000 DK; $7,400 FD)
The Dodgers’ rookie RHP will take on the Padres in Petco in one of the best matchups of the day. De Leon has been up and down in his three starts at the MLB level, with his best performance by far coming against these same Padres where he struck out 9 hitters without issuing a walk over 6 IP in his MLB debut. I’m not expecting that kind of dominance again, and the Dodgers have not let him pitch deep into games (no more than 86 pitches in any of his three outings), but he regularly threw over 100 pitches in the minor leagues, and the Dodgers are big favorites in this matchup. I wish De Leon were cheaper, but he’s in play even at this price in what should be very low ownership, and he has amazing minor league numbers to back up what has been a solid start at the MLB level.
UPDATE: Kenta Maeda will now start for the Dodgers and he’s also very much in play.
Matt Moore vs. Rockies
Giants’ LHP Matt Moore was awful last time out vs. the Dodgers, but gets a great bounce back spot tonight at home against a strikeout prone Rockies team that struggles on the road. Most people will be hesitant to use Moore after such an awful performance, but he should be fine here and comes at a nice discount from the other usable pitching options.
Red Sox vs. Luis Cessa
Yankees rookie RHP Luis Cessa looks like he has pretty good stuff, but the results haven’t been great for him at the MLB level and he’s in for a tough matchup tonight in Yankee Stadium against the powerful Red Sox bats. Cessa has been largely unable to miss bats (just a 16% K-rate) and given up far too many home runs (2.3 HR/9). That’s a recipe for disaster against this Red Sox team in such a great park for hitting, and a strong case can be made for David Ortiz as the top overall hitter on the board, while Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaers, and Hanley Ramirez also make for very solid plays in this matchup, and a stack is very much in play.
Royals vs. Jose Berrios
Different day, same story for Jose Berrios, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball but one who is clearly not quite ready to compete at this level yet. Berrios is giving up a ton of hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate and is far too wild, and nobody is swinging a hotter bat than Kendrys Morales right now. He’s a fantastic contrarian play across the industry, and I also have interest in Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez in this matchup. All three guys should go overlooked and make for a great mini stack with Ian Kennedy in GPPs.
Rangers vs. Jimmy Nelson
Jimmy Nelson is pretty terrible, he’s even worse on the road, and he’s terrible against left-handed bats. That means Carlos Beltran and Rougned Odor are outstanding plays tonight and among the top options on all sites. But don’t overlook the right-handed hitters here either. Carlos Gomez is looking like his old self once again atop the Texas lineup, and Ian Desmond has started hitting the ball hard again. Texas should be a top stacking option tonight and is certain to be popular, but it’s one that is a pretty tough fade.
Cardinals vs. Robert Stephenson
Red RHP Robert Stephenson has not pitched well for the Reds and should be in for a rough outing tonight against the Cardinals, who need wins badly as they try to make the playoffs. Stephenson has been hammered by hitters from both sides of the plate and all of the Cardinals big bats are in play in this one as they should get good matchups out of the Reds pen after they knock Stephenson out of the game. The Cardinals check in as one of the top stacks of the night.