MLB Deep Dive 9/12/16 by DraftCheat
In the MLB Deep Dive, Peter Christensen (aka DraftCheat) brings you the most hard hitting, in-depth, MLB DFS analysis available in the industry today! Be sure to check out his thoughts on the days slate before you set your lineups and remember… it’s “Analysis so good… it feels like cheating!”
Carlos Carrasco vs. White Sox – Carrasco and the Indians head to Chicago to take on a White Sox team that is much more strikeout prone than we saw early on in the season, and Carrasco is dealing right now. He can still give up hard contact from time to time, and the home run ball is always a threat with him, but he’s going to fire strikes, get ahead in the count, and miss a lot of bats. It looks like a good pitching environment weather-wise in Chicago tonight, and Carrasco has historically performed better on the road. You’ll have to pay for his services, but Carrasco has both the highest floor and highest ceiling of any pitcher taking the mound tonight.
Kyle Hendricks vs. Cardinals – Hendricks continues to get the job done for the Cubs despite his less than impressive repetoire of pitches. He’s done a fantastic job limiting hard contact all season and, in the second half of the year, has really stepped up in his ability to miss bats. Tonight he’s got what looks like a reasonably tough matchup on the road against the Cardinals, but keep in mind Hendricks had by far his most dominant start of the season against this same St. Louis team just a few starts ago where he struck out 12 with 0 walks over 7 innings. He’s an excellent play tonight in all formats and does offer some savings from Carrasco on most DFS sites.
David Price vs. Orioles – This seems like a scary matchup against a power-laden Orioles squad, and there is certainly some blow up potential for Price here – I wouldn’t use him in cash games – but this Orioles’ team can also strike out a high rate and is much worse against left-handed pitching. Price has handled pitching in Fenway quite well and if he’s on his game should shut down this lineup with a lot of strikeouts along the way. I like him a lot in GPPs especially where you can get him at a discount.
Jeff Samardzija vs. Padres – Any pitcher facing the Padres we must consider for DFS purposes with their high strikeout rate against pitchers of both handedness. Samardzija will benefit from pitching in perhaps the best pitchers park in MLB at AT&T Park in San Francisco, and has seen his swinging strikes and whiffs tick upward lately as he’s reintroduced a curveball into his arsenal. The Padres have the lowest total, per Vegas, of any team on this slate, and combined with their high strikeout rate that puts Samardzija firmly in play. He’s not a pitcher I love to roster, but this is a strong matchup and he needs to be considered despite his high price tag.
Gerrit Cole vs. Padres – Great matchup here, but Cole is coming off the DL, is not a high strikeout pitcher anyway, and is most likely on a pitch count. I’ll be avoiding though I do expect him to be somewhat popular.
Jose De Leon vs. Yankees – The Dodgers’ rookie RHP De Leon looks to be the real deal. He’s dominated every level at the minor leagues and looked outstanding in his first MLB start (albeit against the Padres). This isn’t an ideal matchup for him against the contact-happy Yankees in Yankee Stadium, but given the discount he presents from other starting pitchers, I’ll still have some exposure to him. Probably a GPP play only but a very strong one.
Mets vs. Mat Latos – There was a time not so long ago when Mat Latos was a very effective pitcher. Due to injury and father time, those days seems like a distant memory and after having an ineffective first couple months of the season Latos has pitched in the minors and now will get a shot to start again. Latos walks too many hitters, doesn’t miss many bats, and gives up the long ball at a very high rate. He’s also worse against lefties, and against a Mets’ team that is stock full of them, this could be a rough start for the right-hander. Look for the Mets to do some damage on the road in Washington tonight.
Nationals vs. Rafael Montero – On the other side of the ball we have an outstanding matchup for the Nationals against the Mets’ Rafael Montero who is downright awful yet seems to get some love in the DFS community for reasons I do not understand. Montero, after pitching poorly in the minor leagues all season, has now made a few starts at the big league level and carries a 6.40 SIERA into this matchup. A lot of that damage has been done via the walk (8.49 BB/9!), which is not great for DFS purposes, but does of course but a full Nationals stack squarely in play. We should note Montero has always been much worse against left-handed hitters, and if you’re taking just one or two players from the Nationals, Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper make for by far the best individual plays.
Rockies vs. Shelby Miller – While we prefer to roster Rockies hitters at home, we can make an exception for a road matchup in Chase Field against the truly awful Shelby Miller. I do much prefer the lefty bats against Miller here, who has allowed a whopping .415 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season, but really the whole stack is in play as his .344 wOBA to righties is nothing to right home about. Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonalez, and David Dahl make for some of the highest upside bats on this slate and will certainly be making my lineups, and it’s hard to avoid Nolan Arenado if you’re stacking Rockies. All aboard!
Blue Jays vs. Jake Odorizzi – The Rays’ RHP Odorizzi is good vs. lefties and good at home, neither of which he’ll have the opportunity to take advantage of tonight facing a power filled, right-handed heavy, Blue Jays lineup. The Jays’ have not had much success against Odorizzi in the past, but I think that changes tonight and they are my favorite “under-the-radar” stacks.
Dodgers vs. Bryan Mitchell – The Dodgers obliterate right-handed pitching and get a very nice matchup against a rookie RHP Bryan Mitchell of the Yankees. They should be able to take advantage of the short porch in right-field and make for an excellent stack or as one-off plays. If Yasmany Grandal is in the lineup he’s my #1 overall catcher, while I also have a lot of interest in Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Turner, and even Chase Utley. This stack could hit in a big way.
Astros vs. Martin Perez – Rangers’ LHP Martin Perez always seems to avoid the huge blowup game, but his numbers vs. right-handed bats are still very poor overall and the Astros have the power to take him deep at home in a good hitters’ park. Look to George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Evan Gattis to do the damage here.