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MLB Deep Dive 9/07/16 by DraftCheat

In the MLB Deep Dive, Peter Christensen (aka DraftCheat) brings you the most hard hitting, in-depth, MLB DFS analysis available in the industry today! Be sure to check out his thoughts on the days slate before you set your lineups and remember… it’s “Analysis so good… it feels like cheating!”

Pitchers to Consider

This is going to be a short list today. There are four pitchers I really like, and a bunch of guys I frankly have little to no interest in.

David Price vs. Padres

Not a ton of explanation needed here, as David Price continues to do David Price things and gets one of the best matchups in all of MLB traveling to Petco Park to take on the Padres who are simply not equipped to handle left-handed pitching, with a low team wOBA and a high K-rate. Price should mow through this lineup while collecting a good number of strikeouts along the way, and should get ample run support from the high powered Red Sox lineup. You’ll to pay a pretty penny for his services, but everything points to a big game for Price here and he should prove to be worth the high cost.

Carlos Carrasco vs. Astros

Carrasco has re-emerged as a dominant pitcher for the Indians over the last month, seeing an uptick in his whiffs/swing, swinging strike rate, strikeouts, and nearly every other metric. Carrasco is at the absolute peak of his powers right now and is fully healthy, and that’s a very scary proposition for opposing hitters. There is danger here in this Astros lineup – they’ve got a lot of power and could definitely score a couple of runs against Carrasco who does give up a decent amount of hard contact – but there is also an extreme amount of upside against a very strikeout prone Astros team. The choice between Carrasco and Price is one many will have to make, and I prefer Carrasco in GPPs but Price in cash games.

Robbie Ray vs. Dodgers

After a disappointing start vs. the Braves and a rough start in Coors Field last time out, Robbie Ray has seen his price come down across the industry for a prime matchup vs. the Dodgers in a  much more favorable pitching environment. Ray has destroyed left-handed hitters this season and has also been better away from Chase Field, and the Dodgers, as good as they are against right-handed pitching, are very poor against lefties. Ray’s discount puts him above Carrasco and Price on a point-per-dollar basis, though I do have both Price and Carrasco scoring significantly more raw points than Ray.

Brock Stewart vs. Diamondbacks

Dodgers’ rookie RHP Brock Stewart looks like an excellent pitcher. He’s dominated at the minor league level with a high strikeout rate, extremely low walk rate, and limited home runs given up. So far in his MLB innings he’s missed a lot of bats (12.4% swinging strike rate), and generated a solid number of ground balls (48% ground ball rate) but has given up a lot of home runs. That’s likely to correct itself soon given that he didn’t have any home run issues at the minor league level, and Stewart is priced at an extreme discount throughout the industry. He’s my #1 point per dollar play tonight against a Diamondbacks team that doesn’t hit right-handed pitching well and has a relatively high strikeout rate.

Hitters to Consider

Stacks:

Giants vs. Jorge De La Rosa

I was completely off the Giants yesterday against Tyler Anderson who generates an incredible amount of weak contact, but I’ll be heading to Coors Field tonight in a much better matchup against LHP Jorge De La Rosa. Hopefully Eduardo Nunez leads off again and if he does he’s my top SS on the night, while Hunter Pence and Buster Posey also makes for excellent plays against the left-handed De La Rosa. As bad as the Giants have been, this is still Coors Field and there’s a good chance it erupts tonight.

Rockies vs. Albert Suarez

Despite last night’s Coors Field dud, we’ve got to like both sides of this matchup with a total around 12 runs. Suarez is a run of the mill pitcher who doesn’t do anything particularly well or poorly, and all of the Rockies main cogs are in play. Stack this team up and reap the benefits as I think we see Coors return to form tonight with a big scoring outburst.

Royals vs. Kyle Gibson

 Check for weather in this game, but assuming it plays fine the Royals are once again in a good spot vs. Kyle Gibson and an awful, tired, Twins bullpen. Kendrys Morales and Eric Hosmer are among the league leaders in batted ball exit velocity over the past thirty days, and both players typically go overlooked. They are my two favorite plays for the Royals by far, though a full stack here is certainly very much in play.

Indians vs. Doug Fister

The Indians left-handed bats are in a great spot vs. Doug Fister tonight as the Astros’ right-hander is unable to miss bats vs. left-handed hitters and gives up a ton of line drives and home runs to left-handed bats. Jason Kipnis is my favorite play here, but Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, and Jose Ramirez also make for excellent plays that should carry a lot ownership tonight.

Individual Hitters:

Anthony Rizzo vs. Matt Garza

The Cubs offense is not especially hot right now, and while I expect their stack to be fairly popular tonight, it’s not a direction I’ll be taking. The one bat that I really do want to target against RHP is Anthony Rizzo, however. Garza is substantially worse vs. LHB and Rizzo profiles quite well against the arsenal of pitches that Garza uses. He’s a top play tonight in one of the best parks for left-handed power in all of MLB.

Brian Dozier vs. Danny Duffy

If you’ve paid any attention to MLB over the past month you know just how hot Brian Dozier is. I still expect him to go a bit overlooked in a perceived tough matchup vs. Danny Duffy. But Duffy has not been as effective in the last month and seems to be running out of steam a bit with a declining fastball velocity. Duffy is vulnerable to right-handed power and Dozier has more of it than anybody right now. Look for Dozier to continue his incredible run with yet another home run tonight.

Howie Kendrick vs. Robbie Ray

While I do really like Robbie Ray tonight, on team’s I’m not using him I’m going to deploy Howie Kendrick assuming he’s hitting in the top of the order. After a slow start to the season Kendrick has quietly turned it on in the second half of the season and Ray, for all his skills, gives up a lot of hard contact to right-handed bats. Kendrick has strong contact skills and should be able to turn around one of Ray’s heaters.

Ian Desmond vs. Ariel Miranda

Mariners RHP Ariel Miranda has really struggled in his rookie year, particularly against right-handed bats, and Ian Desmond is the Rangers bat most likely to be able to take advantage. He’s hammered left-handed pitching this year and should be once again be batting out of the 2-hole. Roster him with confidence tonight at what should be low ownership.