MLB DEEP DIVE – 4/27/17 (LATE)

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Now let’s get down to business!

 

PITCHING

Robbie Ray [LHP – ARZ] at SDP – This should be a fun Saturday night with several pitching options in play.  They guy who is filtering to the top of my list is D’Backs southpaw Robbie Ray. With the favorable change in pitching venues away from Chase Field to Petco Park as well as getting to face the Padres who are the second worst team in the league this season against lefties with a 70 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes park factors and creates a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100), meaning they are creating 30% fewer runs than the average team this season (the Royals are the worst against left-handed pitching with a 63 wRC+).

Also working in his favor is a 25.3% K-rate against right-handed hitters and a 28.6% K-rate against fellow lefties since the beginning of 2015. Ray is a fine option in all formats tonight.

Carlos Martinez [RHP – STL] vs SFG – Martinez has been a workhorse this season averaging 98.5 pitches per start with a solid 3.88 ERA and a 1.17 K/9 rate.  He will be facing a Giants team with the third lowest wOBA (weighted on base average) against right-handed pitchers this season and they also have an 82 wRC+ which checks in as the fourth worst in the league, so their lack of offense is not completely attributed to their home ballpark.  As long as Martinez can negotiate Brandon Belt, Denard Span and Buster Posey, he should be in line for another solid outing.

Zack Wheeler [RHP – NYM] vs LAA – This year’s Angels squad is firmly in the middle of the pack against right-handed hurlers with a 21.6% K-rate and they will be losing the DH (Albert Pujols) and the pitcher will be carrying the lumber tonight in New York’s National League park so that means a couple more strikeout opportunities.  Wheeler missed nearly all of 2015 and 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery after tearing his UCL in the spring of 2015.  He should be in line for a solid outing along the lines of 6 innings, 5 strikeouts, 8 baserunners allowed with a couple of earned runs.

Luis Perdomo [RHP – SDP] vs ARZ – This is not an easy matchup for LPD, however, his amazing ground ball rate (52.5% vs lefties and 68.4% against righties over his 26 Major League starts) has kept him out of trouble.  Though when he does allow a flyball, they leave the yard a whopping 20% of the time.  Getting the win against Robbie Ray and the Diamondbacks is going to be a tall order, but Perdomo slots in nicely as a second starter on multi-pitcher sites.

 

Honorable Mentions: Justin Verlander against the Rangers, though he has been pedestrian so far this season.  Jeff Samardzija in St Louis will be an off-the-board play with his price tag on FantasyDraft and DraftKings. Alex Meyer will help you get bats, but he has been putrid against batters swinging the stick from the left-side of the plate.  Yovani Gallardo is as plain as they come, but he is someone to consider in the late slates as an innings eater against a less than intimidating White Sox offense.

 

 

HITTING

HIGH-PRICED

Cody Bellinger (1B/OF) – LAD vs RHP Dan Strailey, MIA – The rookie has been outstanding with 14 extra base hits through is first 86 at bats and he gets a nice matchup against very average RHP Dan Straily, who has been incredibly lucky against the last 475 left-handed batters he has faced with a 3.97 ERA but a 5.36 xFIP.  We can also consider teammate Chase Utley (2B) who should be at the top of the order for the Dodgers with Justin Turner out of action and Yasiel Puig likely to miss this game and Logan Forsythe not expected off the DL until early next week.

Jake Lamb (3B) – ARZ at RHP Luis Perdomo, SDP – As mentioned in the Luis Perdomo write-up, if anyone can get the ball in the air against him, they have a good chance at a home run and we know that Lamb’s power plays in any park.

Manny Machado (3B) – BAL vs RHP Mike Bolsinger, TOR – Ho Hum, over his last 1,180 righty/righty mtachups, Machado has accumulated a 181 wRC+, a .236 ISO and a .363 wOBA.  Do not forget to stack the Baltimore Orioles tonight, you won’t want to miss out on the fun!

Chris Davis (1B) – BAL vs RHP Mike Bolsinger, TOR – Though he has been in a funk this season, the body of work over his last 1,000 plate appearances in lefty/righty matchups is phenomenal with an other-worldly .300 ISO (isolated power, where .200 is considered special and anything in the 240 range is elite).  We can’t forget that since the beginning of 2015, “Crush” Davis has knocked 74 balls out of the park.

Mark Trumbo (OF) and Adam Jones (OF) – BAL vs RHP Mike Bolsinger, TOR – Will round out the remainder of the Orioles onslaught.

Jean Segura (SS) – SEA vs RHP Mike Pelfrey, CHW – While Pelfrey never seems to get crushed and that likely will hold true tonight in spacious Safeco Field, he is not really a great pitcher either.  If you have the funds, Segura is a nice option who will be leading off for the Mariners and he can score with his bat and his speed.

Nelson Cruz (OF) – SEA vs RHP Mike Pelfrey, CHW – Too many gamers think of him as just a lefty-masher, when Cruz actually crushes all pitchers.  He has 36 home runs against right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season so go with his 21 against southpaws. Enjoy!

J.D Martinez (OF) – DET vs RHP A.J. Griffin, TEX – in his seven games back from the disabled list, Martinez has a whopping five home runs in 21 at bats.  He has been a noted power hitter since being acquired from the Astros and he is really putting everything together, albeit a little later than most players of his caliber.  Opposing pitcher A.J. Griffin has allowed 1.5 HR/9 to same-handed hitters over his last 84 innings pitched.

Ian Kinsler (2B) – DET vs RHP A.J. Griffin, TEX – Kinsler is another hitter that has been placed in the “against lefties only” box by most gamers.  It is important to note that he has a CAREER .334 wOBA, .162 ISO and a 104 wRC+ through 12 seasons and he has been right in line with those metrics over the last three seasons.

 

VALUE

Alex Avila (C/1B) – DET vs RHP A.J. Griffin, TEX – Avila disappointed last night, but we can go right back to him in another fine matchup and he should again be in the middle of the order with Victor Martinez on the paternity list and Miguel Cabrera dealing with a sore left side.  Avila has some SERIOUS power and it is only a matter of time before he has a MONSTER game.

T.J. Rivera (1B/3B) – NYM vs RHP Alex Meyers, LAA – Rivera has been outstanding against right-handed pitching over his last 150 plate appearnces with a .398 wOBA and a 190 ISO.  He may not be in the lineup with Lucas Duda (1B) back from injury, but if Jose Reyes continues to fill in at short stop for the injured Asdrubal Cabrera, Rivera could end up manning one of the corner infield slots.  Duda is also a viable play, though I will only look to him in Mets stacks as he is still looking a little rusty from his injury layoff.

Greg Garcia (3B/SS) and Kolten Wong (2B) – STL vs RHP Jeff Samardzija – Keep an eye out as lineup are released as these guys sometimes get favorable batting order positioning against right-handed pitching for the Red Birds.

Aledmys Diaz (SS) – STL vs RHP Jeff Samardzija – Diaz is dramatically better against same-handed pitching and this helps keep his price tag at a reasonable level.  He is fine as a one-off or as a key part of any Cardinals synergy strategy.

Matt Davidson (1B/3B) – CHW at RHP Yovani Gallardo, SEA – It is a thin 63 plate appearance sample size, but Davidson certainly has flashed power upside against right-handed pitching with a .317 ISO and a .550 SLG which has him profiling as a young Todd Frazier (1B).  Speaking of which, the Toddfather is definitely in play against Yovani Gallardo tonight with some sneaky extra-base hit upside himself.

MAIN SLATE STRATEGY

FanDuel:

Tonight I will be looking to anchor my squads with either Carlos Martinez – $9,400 or Robbie Ray – $9,100.  The goal with be to work in two “mini-stacks” from the:

Mets: Michael Conforto (OF) – $4,100, Jay Bruce (OF) – $3,800, Neil Walker (2B) – $3,400, T.J. Rivera (3B) – $2,600, Lucas Duda (1B)

Orioles: Chris Davis (1B) – $3,900, Manny Machado (3B) – $3,700, Mark Trumbo (OF) – $3,200, Adam Jones (OF) – $3,400, Jonathan Schoop (2B), $3,300

Tigers: Alex Avila (C) – $3,100, Ian Kinsler (2B) – $3,400, J.D. Martinez (OF) – $4,100, Nick Castellanos (3B) – $3,200

With discounted options such as Tyler Collins (OF) – $2,600, David Peralta – $2,700, Tommy Pham (OF) – $2,900 and Chase Utley (2B) – $2,300

DraftKings:

A fun way to go on DraftKings tonight is to try and “box” the win points by taking both Robbie Ray – $8,900 and Luis Perdomo – $7,000 in the game with the lowest projected run total (7.5) tonight.  This will leave nearly $4,300 per hitting slot and really allows for some flexibility with “stacking” the top offenses such as the Mets, Orioles, Tigers, Cardinals multiple ways and could provide a very entertaining evening if you want to run 20 lineups in the MLB $65K FOUR-SEAMER [20 ENTRY MAX].  Discounted plays on your radar should include Alex Avila (C/1B) – $3,500, T.J. Rivera (1B/3B) – $3,500, Kole Calhoun (OF) – $3,200 and Chase Utley (1B/2B) – $3,400.

FantasyDraft:

We could employ a similar strategy with the Robby Ray/Luis Perdomo lineup composition as detailed above or try a different tactic and look to Carlos Martinez – $21,600 and Zack Wheeler – $15,600 in an effort to garner two victories and additionally stacking their respective squads with a one-off batter such as Alex Avila (INF) – $6,900, Tyler Collins (OF) – $6,400 or Chase Utley (INF) – $6,800