MLB DEEP DIVE – 4/27/17 (LATE)

Greetings Gamers!  We wanted to give you a free sneak peek at some of our premium baseball content for Thursday’s Early game set.

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Now let’s get down to business!

 

PITCHING

Chris Sale [LHP – BOS] vs NYY – Sale has been outstanding so far this season with a 0.91 ERA, 0.71 WHIP an amazing 42 strikeouts through 29 2/3 innings pitched (1.42 per inning).  Even better, current Yankees hitters have managed a paltry .200/.236/.341 slash line with only six extra base hits (three by Chase Headley and two by Chris Carter) with a whopping 34 Ks in 85 at bats (40%).  The one downside is that everyone will want him on their lineup on this thin four game night.  With this knowledge, one could choose to not play Sale and take a couple Yankee bats in a low dollar tournament and hope for a “variance” outcome with Sale giving up 4-5 runs.

Adam Wainwright [RHP – STL] vs TOR – Waino is just not the same pitcher he was from 2006-2015 and even in this great matchup against the frigid bats of the Toronto Blue Jays, there is not really much safety…however, in his last start he did coax the Milwaukee Brewers into nine strikeouts while allowing just two earned runs.  Yikes, if we are talking about Adam Wainwright as an option, then we know it is a tournament kind of night.

On the season, the Blue Jays have a 64 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus which is an advanced metric designed to neutralize park factors and create a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100) which means they are creating 36% less runs against right-handed pitchers than the average team.  This is what makes the shell of Adam Wainwright a potential SP2 with just eight options to choose from.

Kendal Graveman [RHP – OAK] at LAA – while we could consider RHP Ricky Nolasco, the fact that he has allowed seven home runs through his first four starts has turned me off for the most part.  That leaves us with Graveman who will be facing a pretty average Angels lineups that is striking out 21% of the time this season (14th) against right-handed pitching and scoring 7% below average.  The hiccup here would be that current Halos batsmen have had Graveman’s number with a .315/356/492 slash line with 11 extra base hits in 124 at bats along with only 19 strikeouts.

 

HITTING

HIGH-PRICED

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Jered Weaver, SDP – Over his last 1,162 plate appearances Paul Goldschmidt (1B) has tallied a .390 wOBA and a .218 ISO when facing fellow righties, which means he is much more than a lefty-killer these days.  David Peralta (OF) and Jake Lamb (3B) have quite a bit of pop in their bats as well sporting .212 ISO and .222ISO over the last two plus seasons when facing right-handed pitching.

Khris Davis (OF) – OAK at RHP Ricky Nolasco, LAA – As mentioned above, on one hand we have Ricky Nolasco has allowed seven home runs already this season and on the other hand Khris Davis has hit seven himself.  Put those hands together and welcome your April 27th home run call of the night!

Aledmys Diaz (SS) – STL vs RHP Casey Lawrence, TOR – Even with the double header today, there is a good chance we see Aledmys Diaz in the nightcap and he has been a terror against same-handed pitching during his young career with a .376 wOBA and a .239 ISO across 390 at bats.

 

VALUE

Jeremy Hazelbaker (OF) – ARZ vs RHP Jered Weaver, SDP – We can keep our fingers crossed that Hazelbaker makes the lineup for this lefty/righty matchup against Jered Weaver and his 86mph “fast ball” tonight.

Jaff Decker (OF) – OAK at RHP Ricky Nolasco, LAA – While we don’t have much of a book yet on Decker, he is leading off and is near the minimum price point on most sites.  If you are not “risking” things with RHP Ricky Nolasco as one of your pitchers, then Matt Joyce (OF) is also someone to consider with his proclivity for smashing extra base hits when he is in lefty/righty matchups.

Ryon Healy (1B/3B) – OAK at RHP Ricky Nolasco, LAA – Depending on your site of choice, Healy qualifies at either corner infield position.  He is a nice source of power and he is not really a recognizable name yet in the DFS world so he could potentially be overlooked, even with only an eight team player pool.

Ryan Schimpf (2B) – SDP at RHP Taijuan Walker, ARZ – Schimpf has light tower power, but he has really had trouble making contact this season batting just .115, though he does have four home runs among his seven hits and his walk rate is through the roof with 15 already in just 20 games played.

 

SHORT SLATE STRATEGY

FanDuel: Tonight I will be looking to join The Masses and will be anchoring my FanDuel squads with LHP Chris Sale which will still leave me a tick below $3,000 per hitter.  The goal with be to work in Paul Goldschmid – $4,300, Jake Lamb – $3,800 and David Peralta – $3,300.  To facilitate this we can punt our catcher position with Chris Herrman – $2,200 or Sandy Leon – $2,300 and in the outfield we can roll with Jaff Decker – $2,300 and Matt Joyce – $2,100.

DraftKings: There are two ways to go on DraftKings tonight.  LHP Chris Sale – $12,900 and then rolling the dice with one of the other pitchers, or rolling the dice with other pitchers and hoping that Sale has a bad outing.  This is shaping up to be a night where I will be playing in the low dollar tournaments for entertainment purposes and making a couple “off the wall” lineups in the hopes of catching lightening in a bottle.

FantasyDraft: It would seem that LHP Chris Sale – $25,200 and probably RHP Kendall Graveman – $15,200 are going to anchor my staff and then I want to work in as many D’Backs as possible with the Oakland Athletics outfield.