MLB Analytical Angles 9/28/16

Summary

We have a nearly complete 14-game slate on the board tonight which features half the teams over 4.5 implied runs and a scarcity of aces on the mound. Enjoy your hitting and don’t feel like you have to lean on the chalky stacks tonight.

Let’s do this!

All salaries will be FanDuel based, with Premium starting at $3,400 and higher.

Premium:

Carlos Beltran (OF) – TEX vs. MIL – Chase Anderson, on the road vs. LHH since July 1st (50 total batters faced): 5.76 xFIP, 2.0% K-BB rate. Beltran should be batting third on a 5.4 implied run total.

Trea Turner (OF) – WAS vs. ARI – Turner, against RHP at home over last 30 days: 175 wRC+, .277 ISO and ARI SP Shelby Miller has allowed SBs at a rate of 71% since 2013 (via Razzball).

Jose Bautista (OF) – TOR vs. BAL – Bautista has a 189 wRC/.370 ISO in his last 37 plate appearances against RHP at home while BAL SP Tillman has given up 1.08 HR/9 IP and a 5.41 xFIP since July 1st on the road against RHH.

David Ortiz (1B) – BOS at NYY – Yes, he ate a donut last night, but if you rostered him then, you know that he’s still in a great spot tonight against NYY SP Mitchell, who has a 5.41 SIERA over his last 30 days. Ortiz, as a reminder, has a 211 wRC+/.356 ISO/.483 wOBA against RHP on the road in his last 53 PA.

Brian Dozier (2B) – MIN at KCR – Dozier has a .353 ISO since July 1st on the road against LHP and is batting first for the Twins against KCR SP Jason Vargas.

Adrian Beltre (3B) – TEX vs. MIL – It’s not Beltre’s best split, but he is above average in wRC+ in split and MIL SP Anderson still carries a heavy reverse split, 5.23 xFIP and 1.71 HR/9 IP since July 1st. Beltre is batting cleanup in that Rangers lineup implied to score 5.4 runs tonight at home.

Jose Peraza (SS) – CIN at STL – Leading off against STL SP Mike Leake, who has a 1.71 WHIP and 4.94 SIERA over his last 30 days AND gives up steals 72% success rate.

Gary Sanchez (CATCH) – NYY vs. BOS – Sanchez against RHP at Yankee Stadium: 216 wRC+, .400 ISO, .493 wOBA.

Value:

Matt Kemp (OF) – ATL vs. PHI – Kemp has a 137 wRC+ against LHP at Turner Field since becoming a Brave and PHI SP Morgan has given up 2.13 HR/9 IP against RHH on the road this season.

Cameron Maybin (OF) – DET vs. CLE – This is Maybin’s best split, and he’s kept it hot with a 156 wRC+ and .405 wOBA over the last 30 days in split against CLE SP McAllister, and is batting second as the Tigers have as 4.6 implied run total.

Randal Grichuk (OF) – STL vs. CIN – In 68 PA against RHP at home since July 1st, Grichuk has a 180 wRC+, .359 ISO and .439 wOBA. Plus, Matheny has him batting second again (huzzah!) and the Cardinals are rocking a 4.8 implied run total. $2,900 only on FanDuel is great in this spot.

Hunter Renfroe (OF) – SDP vs. LAD – You probably saw his two HR night last night and he hit 30 in AAA prior to his call up. His stats right now at home: 247 wRC+, .588 ISO, .531 wOBA in 18 PA. $2,200 on FanDuel and batting fifth tonight.

Kennys Vargas (1B) – MIN at KCR – He’s got a 225 wRC+ and .294 ISO, with a .504 wOBA since coming back to the Twins against LHP on the road. He’s crushed lefties at home, too, so he’s seeing the ball really well against LHP. $2,800 on FanDuel

Starlin Castro (2B) – NYY vs. BOS – $2,200 on FanDuel tonight, Castro, in the last 30 days against RHP at home (30 PA) has a 143 wRC+, .286 ISO and is batting fifth tonight for the 4.2 run implied Yankees.

Nick Castellanos (3B) – DET vs. CLE – Nick is back off the DL and batting seventh for the Tigers at $2,400 on FanDuel. Nick, against RHP at home this season, has a 144 wRC+ and .388 wOBA.

Tim Anderson (SS) – CHW vs. TBR – Anderson, at $2,900 on FanDuel, is leading off against TBR SP Blake Snell, who since August 1st against RHH away has a 5.52 xFIP and 46.3% hard contact rate (60 batters faced).

Yasmani Grandal (CATCH) – LAD at SDP – Didn’t come through last night, but has a similar matchup against SDP SP Perdomo, and Grandal still carries a 121 wRC+ and .274 ISO since August 1st in split.

Good luck! – Jason