MLB Analytical Angles 9/27/16

Summary

We have a full-on, action-packed, 15-game slate on the board tonight which features another high scoring affair in Texas, the Sawks and the Yankees and a number of aces that which you should stay the heck away. Let’s do this!

All salaries will be FanDuel based, with Premium starting at $3,400 and higher.

Premium:

Mookie Betts (OF) – BOS at NYY – Betts against RHP, since August 1st away from Boston (126 plate appearances): 164 wRC+, .414 wOBA, 11.9 BB%, 9.5% K rate. Sorry, Luis Cessa, that five run implied run total against you and your teammates looks legit.

Nelson Cruz (OF) – SEA at HOU – Cruz has been hot, but how hot? Last 30 days: 160 wRC+, .354 ISO. Last 14 days: 212 wRC+, .488 ISO. Last 7 days: 229 wRC+, .636 ISO. HOU SP Mike Fiers against RHH at home: 38% hard contact, 1.49 HR/9 IP. CRUUUUUUUUUUUZZZZZ!

Trea Turner (OF) – WAS vs. ARI – Turner in the home vs. RHP split: 151 wRC+ and .286 ISO. WAS faces ARI SP Matt Koch, who is nobody’s idea of a missed bat specialist, so Turner will have some opportunity to get on base and steal tonight.

David Ortiz (1B) – BOS at NYY – Roster Ortiz in his last games ever, especially in LHH HR crazy Yankee Stadium against a SP in Luis Cessa that offers 2.38 HR/9 IP against LHH at home. As for Ortiz, he’s finishing up strong: In his last 89 PA against RHP away, he has a 210 wRC+, .360 ISO and .481 wOBA. Enjoy a few more times before this unreal hitter is out of our lives forever.

Dustin Pedroia (2B) – BOS at NYY – Batting in front of Betts and Ortiz will be Pedroia, who is above average in split here, though not dominant, he’ll be in position to get great pitches to hit and score some runs tonight.

Adrian Beltre (3B) – TEX vs. MIL – Since August 1st away from home against RHH, MIL SP Jimmy Nelson has a 5.01 xFIP, 7.1% K-BB% and 2.00 HR/9 IP. The Rangers have an implied 5.5 runs tonight and Beltre should be right in the middle of the production.

Corey Seager (SS) – LAD at SDP  – So good this season against RHP (144 wRC+, 160 since August 1st away from LA), Seager gets SDP SP Paul Clemens, who has a 5.44 xFIP with 14.4% walk rate against LHH.

Victor Martinez (CATCH) – DET vs. CLE – Martinez has bounced back at home against RHP lately, with a 123 wRC+ and .241 ISO against RHP since September 1st. CLE SP Clevinger has not fared as well as a SP, with a 5.10 xFIP when starting.

Value:

Carlos Gomez (OF) – TEX vs. MIL – Same as Beltre above in terms of matchup against MIL SP Nelson, and Gomez has a 147 wRC+ and .304 ISO since batting leadoff, with similar splits vs. LHP and RHP.

Randal Grichuk (OF) – STL vs. CIN –  The Magic 8-ball that Mike Matheny uses had Grichuk batting 8th last night, so maybe he’ll bat second tonight! We can hope. Grichuk’s vs. RHP at home split: Since July 1st (62 PA), he has a 178 wRC+ and .345 ISO.

J.D. Martinez (OF) – DET vs. CLE – This is JD’s best split (180 wRC+), and CLE SP Clevinger has a bad reverse split as a starting pitcher this season, with a 6.34 xFIP with 2.89 HR/9 IP.

Ryan Howard (1B) – PHL at ATL – 46.2% hard contact against RHP on the road since August 1st (39 PA) and faces ATL SP Julio Teheran, who has a 5.52 xFIP, 36% hard contact and 1.58 HR/9 IP against LHH at home.

Chase Utley (2B) – LAD at SDP – Should be leading off for the Dodgers against RHP Clemens, whose statistical struggles against LHH are above in Seager’s writeup, Utley has a nice 125 wRC+ and .246 ISO in 72 PA since August 1st in split.

Travis Shaw (3B) – BOS at NYY – For $2,900 and batting sixth in that strong Boston team total, Shaw has been average against RHP away from Boston, but Cessa’s struggles, along with Shaw’s teammate’s prowess, bumps him into play.

Stephen Drew (SS) – WAS vs. ARI – Drew has been batting fifth lately and providing value for his $2,500 salary. Since July 1st in split, Drew has a 170 wRC+ and .320 ISO.

Yasmani Grandal (CATCH) – LAD at SDP – I love rostering Grandal against RHP. Grandal against RHP since July 1st (180 PA): 172 wRC+ and .371 ISO. One of my favorite plays of 2016 and will be doing it again vs. SDP SP Clemens. Also, REVENGE!

Good luck! – Jason