MLB Analytical Angles 9/11/16
Solid split slate today, with 11 games going early (1:10 EST) and four more going at 4:05 EST. While I am going to list out all the names as if this were an all-day affair, I will call out when the participant is located in the LATE slate.
There are plenty of gas can targets out there today and it’s going to be hard to get at all of them, so you have to make a stand on who you think the two or three top targets are and go after them. Are you a big believer in the awfulness of Jered Weaver? You’re in luck today! Got a feeling about the recently returned Williams Perez in Atlanta? Play it! Don’t spread yourself too thin trying to cover everything, grip your favorite targets and then rip it.
Here are my favorite targets on the slate – see if you can tell where I’m planting my flag this fabulous Football Sunday!
Curtis Granderson (OF) – NYM at ATL – The Grandy Man whiffed against John Gant last night, but gets a shot at redemption against an even more impotent foe, Williams Perez. The ATL SP has a 5.75 xFIP and 2.13 HR/9 IP against LHH this season.
Carlos Beltran (OF) – TEX at LAA – Going against Jered Weaver is almost cheating – he doesn’t even have the favorable home split anymore. He’s bad against everyone. So let’s pick Beltran, who’s batting third in the hot Texas Rangers lineup, with a 5.1 implied run total.
Jayson Werth (OF) – WAS vs. PHI – Coming off a day off, Werth steps back into matchup against Adam Morgan, a LHP who gives up 4.68 xFIP and 2.73 HR/9 IP against RHH. Werth has strong 147 wRC+ and .213 ISO against LHP at home this season.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B) – ARI vs. SFG – LATE – Goldy is gold-y against LHP at home. This is the third straight season he’s been over 200 wRC+ against LHP at home, with a 224 mark this season a .333 ISO. SFG SP Matt Moore since August 1 has a 5.44 xFIP and 19.2 BB rate against RHH away from SFG.
Ian Kinsler (2B) – DET vs. BAL – Kinsler and the Tigers let down America on Saturday night, but get another swing at things against BAL SP Tillman, who has allowed an xFIP of 5.50 on the road against RHH since July 1.
Anthony Rendon (3B) – WAS vs. PHI – Rendon against LHP at home since July 1st: 161 wRC+, .273 ISO and gets the same friendly matchup against PHI SP Morgan and the Nationals have an implied run total of 5.6.
Corey Seager (SS) – LAD at MIA – Seager faces MIA SP Urena, who has good stuff, but lacks the out pitch to miss bats more (8.5% swinging strike rate). He’s also struggled against LHH at home, with a 5.62 xFIP and 1.80 HR/9 IP. Seager, since July 1 on the road against RHP, has a cool 160 wRC+ and will be batting in the top third of the Dodgers lineup.
Wilson Ramos (CATCH) – WAS vs. PHI – Wilson Ramos has a 315 wRC+ and .476 ISO since July 1 against LHP at home. See above for the Adam Morgan matchup goodness and exorbitant implied run total on this game for the Nationals.
Rickie Weeks (OF) – ARI vs. SFG – LATE – The sample size is small, but that’s likely because he smashes LHP so much they don’t last long enough to come back around again. Weeks has a 428 wRC+ and .286 ISO against LHP at home this season and I already described SFG SP Moore’s struggles above with Goldy.
Carlos Gomez (OF) – TEX at LAA – If they bat him leadoff again, let ‘er rip as Gomez launched two longballs Saturday night against RHP Daniel Wright and Jered Weaver, as I showed above, is bad against everyone, with a 5.54 xFIP and 1.93 HR/9 IP at home against RHH.
Cameron Maybin (OF) – DET vs. BAL – If he’s batting second like he has been, he’s good in this spot against the aforementioned Chris Tillman. Maybin has a surprising 179 wRC+ against RHP at home this season.
Logan Morrison (1B) – TBR at NYY – Love LHH in Yankee Stadium and NYY SP Cessa has offered homers to both LHH and RHH evenly, at 2.08 vs. LHH like Morrison, who has a 258 wRC+ and .500 ISO since August 1st against RHP away from Tampa.
Starlin Castro (2B) – NYY vs. TBR – Pretty inexpensive on FanDuel and he’s been batting fifth in the lineup, Castro has a solid 125 wRC+ and .211 ISO against RHP in Yankee Stadium.
Adrian Beltre (3B) – TEX at LAA – One more Ranger here, and it’s Beltre, who since August 1st has hit RHP away from Texas at a 169 wRC+/.260 clip and now gets to face Jered Weaver.
Chris Owings (SS) – ARI vs. SFG – LATE – And now one last Diamondback, Owings, who this season has a 195 WRC+/.364 ISO split vs. LHP at home. Seriously, how long is Matt Moore going to last here? Stack ‘em up!
Yamani Grandal (CATCH) – LAD at MIA – Grandal gets MIA SP Urena, whom we’ve documented above struggles against LHH at home, and Grandal, since August 1st, has a 193 wRC+ and .400 ISO against RHP on the road.
In the four game late slate, clearly I like the Diamondbacks stack against Matt Moore and the Giants. The Giants themselves are sneaky because they hit RHP so well away from San Francisco (witness Saturday night), Chase Field is so good and Zack Greinke has really struggled there.
In the main slate, the Nationals are the top play against Adam Morgan, and while some are going to run to Toronto, I think I’m staying away because Clay Buchholz has figured something out and the command has returned. That leaves me with the Tigers against Chris Tillman and the Mets bats against Williams Perez in my top three stacks of the main slate.
Good luck, everybody!