MLB Analytical Angles 10/09/16
Massive post-season action with three games on the all-day slate on FanDuel and two on the later slate. The Dodgers and the Nationals were postponed until today, so they are added to the fun on the all-day slate.
I’m going to go game by game to look at the action. All prices referenced are FanDuel pricing.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals
Easily pitching the best over the past 30 days on the entire slate, Rich Hill ($9,000) brings his 34.3% K-rate over the last 30 days to the nation’s capital. Included in this is a massive 26.00 K/BB ratio against RHH spanning 70 batters faced. Because of this, the only National bats that are of interest are Bryce Harper ($3,500) and Daniel Murphy ($3,700) who will be lower owned relative to the slate.
On the other side sits Tanner Roark ($8,000), who has had a 4.50 SIERA over the last 30 days worsened by a 12.7% walk rate. At home since July 1st (282 batters faced), Roark has a 4.51 xFIP, but he also has given up fewer than 1 HR/9 IP (0.66). He does pop up to 4.99 xFIP against LHH, but with a low home run rate, so I’m not crazy about the Dodgers bats.
Hitters to consider:
Nationals – Harper, Murphy
Dodgers – Corey Seager ($3,700), Chase Utley ($2,900), Adrian Gonzalez ($2,900)
Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox
Clay Buchholz ($6,400), is a thing today. Frequent readers will know that these Indians are much weaker on the road against RHP. Enter Buchholz, who has 30, 42 and 36 FanDuel points at around the same salary point and against the Yankees (twice) and the Orioles at Camden Yards, a very tough matchup this season. Vegas has him as a -134 favorite, although the game total is a high 9.5. Tournament play only.
The Tribe rolls out Josh Tomlin ($6,900) against the team with the best wRC+ and Weighted Runs Above Average against RHP in the Boston Red Sox. Since August 1st (53.1 IP), Tomlin has averaged only 5.23 K/9 IP. Not missing bats is lethal in this matchup and Tomlin has given up 36% hard contact over the same span, so he’s not generating soft contact, either. All the Red Sox bats are in play here, mix and match the stacks as you so choose, up and down the lineup.
Specifically, Brock Holt ($2,900) is a great value if he’s batting second again and Mookie Betts ($4,200) had a 173 wRC+, .258 ISO and .442 wOBA in split since July 1st (128 plate appearances). And, of course, David Ortiz ($4,300) is great in this split, with a 189 wRC+, .399 ISO and .406 wOBA over the entire season (258 PA).
Hitters to consider:
Indians: Only Carlos Santana ($3,500) holds his value and production in split for Cleveland.
Red Sox: Everybody in the lineup is in play for tourneys, and Dustin Pedroia ($3,300), Holt, Betts and Ortiz are cash game plays.
Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays
Oh boy. Colby Lewis ($6,500) is a starter in a playoff game. Lewis has been the worst starting pitcher over the last 30 days that is on the slate tonight. Lewis has a 5.98 SIERA, with 2.95 HR/9 IP over that span of time. The Blue Jays were eighth on the season against RHP and since June 1st (93 batters faced) on the road, Lewis has a 5.51 xFIP and 1.90 HR/9 IP. He’s particularly homer happy against RHH, where he has given up four home runs in the last 22 batters faced in split.
That is not good since the Jays are loaded with strong RHH, especially at home against RHP. Josh Donaldson ($3,900) has been awesome in split all season, but even still recently (last 83 PA), with a 172 wRC+, .369 ISO and .430 wOBA. Edwin Encarnacion ($4,100), since July 1st (147 PA), has a 170 wRC+, .298 ISO and .428 wOBA. Jose Bautista ($3,500) is in play, too, with a 149 wRC+, .269 ISO and .396 wOBA.
On the pitching side for Toronto is Aaron Sanchez ($9,000), who has turned in FanDuel points of 48, 57 and 30 in his last three starts, giving up one run in each. Control has been an issue, running a 10.7% walk rate in those starts, but has struck out 28% of the batters. Vegas likes the Jays to win as a -200 favorite and the implied run total is close to 3.5 for the Rangers.
Sanchez has been lethal to RHH in those starts, with a 32.3% K-rate, 3.2% walk rate and 2.27 xFIP, so it is the LHH that you want to roster, if any, in this game for the Rangers.
Hitters to consider:
Rangers – Rougned Odor ($3,400), Carlos Beltran ($3,700)
Blue Jays – Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki ($2,900), Russell Martin ($2,800)
Top cash game pitcher is Rich Hill and top tourney, for no-guts, no-glory, is Clay Buchholz.
Top bats are in Boston and Toronto, and Holt (BOS), Utley (LOS), Tulowitzki (TOR) and Martin (TOR) are the top values out there.
Good Luck! – Jason