MLB Tournament Thoughts by ShipMyMoney aka Adam Scherer – 9/22/17

Greetings Gamers!  We wanted to give you a free sneak peek at some of our premium baseball content to for tonight’s $5,000 Home Run on FantasyDraft with a reasonable $25 entry fee and a 6-entry limit, so we will not see the field overrun by anyone one player with a giant bankroll.

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Now let’s get down to business with some insight from ShipMyMoney!

 

Starting Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates, $15,200 Cole struggled in his last outing against the St. Louis Cardinals but his price is even lower tonight against the Nationals.  Pitching is a bit thinner than usual on tonight’s slate as both of the premier expensive arms are pitching for teams that have already clinched a playoff berth and cannot improve their standing within their division and/or league.  The position of their respective teams within the standings makes them riskier options as it is possible they will be pulled from the game relatively early in order to keep their arms fresh for the postseason.  That is not the case for Cole, who’s Pirates will not be in the postseason.

Despite some shaky outings recently, Cole’s strikeout indicators are still up as he has recorded a swinging strike percentage greater than 10.5 percent in six of his last seven starts- for context, his season average is 9.6 percent.

The Nationals lineup is also likely to consist mostly of righties and Cole is better against righties than lefties, plus there is a chance that some of the Washington regulars are rested.  Pay attention to the lineup to make sure that the Nationals do not load up on lefties against Cole but this is a nice spot for him as long as the lineup is mostly right-handed and/or is missing key starters.

Chris Stratton, San Francisco Giants, $14,400 Stratton is a very interesting tournament play as he faces a San Diego team that is markedly worse against right-handed pitching.  The Padres have several hitters owning strikeout percentages that sharply decrease and yet at the same time see their power increase against left-handed pitching compared to righties.

This means we want to look to pick on them with right-handed pitching since most of their current lineup iterations strike out at least 22-23 percent of the time in these situations and several hitters even flirt with the 30 percent mark.  Stratton has been good against right-handed hitters this season, allowing a .302 wOBA with a 21.7 percent strikeout percentage.  Also working in Stratton’s favor is that the Giants have nothing to play for and they should want to see more out of their young right-hander.  This lowers the risk that he is a casualty of extended bullpens and is pulled from the game long before he otherwise would be.  Keep any eye on the San Diego lineup but, if it is there normal lineup consisting mostly of right-handed, high-strikeout hitters, consider rostering Stratton over more popular options in his price range such as Dan Straily in order to give yourself an edge in tournaments.

 

Infield

Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies, $10,800 This is a no-brainer but still deserves a mention as Arenado faces a left-handed hurler in Coors Field.  Hyun-Jin Ryu is not just any lefty as he is a quality starter and has been better against righties than lefties throughout his career with the Dodgers.  That said, Arenado is one of the best hitters on the planet, particularly in Coors Field and against lefties.  He has posted a .473 wOBA and .373 ISO against lefties at home over the last two seasons.  He will be popular but is a strong play regardless.

Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers, $7,500 Gallo will face Oakland right-hander Raul Alcantara tonight in Texas.  Alcantara is not good by any stretch.  He has thrown 42.0 innings in The Show, split evenly between left-handed and right-handed hitters.  Against lefties, like Gallo, Alcantara has allowed a .365 wOBA and 2.57 home runs per nine innings.  Importantly for Gallo, Alcantara has struck out just 12.0 percent of lefties that he has faced.  As we know, Gallo’s biggest weakness is his inability to make contact.  He has massive power whenever he is able to hit the ball and Alcantara’s style of pitching plays to his strengths.  Alcantara has also allowed 42.9 percent hard contact to lefties and just 12.9 percent soft contact.  This is a prime spot for Gallo and he is way too inexpensive.

 

Outfield

Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers, $8,800 Puig is a sneaky way to get exposure to the Dodgers tonight as he has plenty of upside against RHP Chad Bettis in Coors Field but is likely to come at lower ownership than most of his teammates as he does not have a platoon advantage and he is one of the more expensive hitters that is not named Cody Bellinger.  Puig actually has shown more power against righties than lefties, however.  Since the start of last season, Puig has a .351 wOBA and .211 ISO against right-handed pitching and a .298 wOBA and .151 ISO against lefties.  Chad Bettis has struggled against all hitters since returning from the disabled list this season and he was much worse against righties than lefties last season.  Last season, Bettis allowed a .362 wOBA and 1.65 home runs per nine innings to righties.  Puig is a great tournament play on tonight’s slate.

Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians, $10,800 Ramirez is expensive but he is in a dream spot tonight against RHP Mike Pelfrey and the White Sox.  Pelfrey has burned people plenty of times this season because he is surprisingly decent against right-handed hitters and for some reason people cannot figure that out.  He is as bad as people think he is against left-handed hitters, however, allowing a .362 wOBA and 2.30 home runs per nine innings to lefties this season.  In addition, the tall right-hander is terrible at holding runners.  He has allowed 25 stolen bases in 117.1 innings this season.  Jose Ramirez has 16 steals on the year and has upside at the plate and on the bases in this spot.

Best of luck in taking second place tonight! ~ShipMyMoney

Adam Scherer (aka ShipMyMoney) has been playing full time DFS for the last two years since taking a “sabbatical” from law school.  He specializes in MLB and NBA and has a couple live finals appearance under his belt along with a couple high five figure victories in tournaments.  Adam likes to dig into the analytics as well as use the “eye test” particularly for his pitcher analysis and understanding NBA game flow and coaching strategies. You can find his work on FanVice.com for both articles as well as the Deeper Dive live video show airing regularly at 5pm ET or on Twitter @ShipMyMoneyDFS