MLB Tournament Thoughts by ShipMyMoney aka Adam Scherer – 9/1/17
Greetings Gamers! We wanted to give you a free sneak peek at some of our premium baseball content to honor the GIGANTIC $100,000 Walk Off tournament on FantasyDraft.
Additionally, they are running a simultaneous “shadow GPP” and will be giving away swag and special prizes for NFL Week 1 including the following:
1st 2 tickets to any NFL regular season game of your choice
2nd TY Hilton autographed authentic game used football
3rd Andy Dalton autographed full sized replica helmet
4th-10th $25 Week 2 Run and Gun ticket
11th-20th FantasyDraft Hoodie
21st-30th FantasyDraft Tee Shirt
31st-50th $5 Week 2 Wishbone ticket
51st-150th $1 Week 2 Spiral ticket
This “shadow” GPP will automatically register any entries from the $100,000 Walk Off, so no additional steps are needed by the entrants.
- An upcoming NFL freeroll which is only available to gamers who have signed up and made a deposit to FantasyDraft with a FanVice referral.
- 30 days of FanVice premium content (current FanVice subscribers will have their expiration date extended by 30 days).
- A deposit bonus from FantasyDraft
Now let’s get down to business with some insight from ShipMyMoney!
Tonight on FantasyDraft, we have a massive $100,000 Home Run with a reasonable $55 entry fee and a 30-entry limit, so we will not see the field overrun by anyone one player with deep pockets. There are 13 games on the slate, so here are some of the players I am eyeing for my tournament lineups.
Luis Castillo, Pittsburgh Pirates, $18,300– Castillo has had an impressive rookie season for the Reds. They are planning to shut him down after a couple of more starts, but that should not affect him tonight since it does not appear that they are going to limit his pitch count. Castillo has struck out 26.9 percent of hitters over the last 30 days with a groundball percentage of 55.9 percent and 23.9 percent soft contact. He has been even better against righties, striking out 28.6 percent of righties with a 61.5 percent groundball percentage and 26.8 percent soft contact.
The Pirates’ projected lineup has just two lefties in it. While most of the hitters in the Pittsburgh lineup are tough to strike out, Castillo’s stuff is well above average as he has three excellent pitches in his fastball, slider and change-up so he should be able to generate strikeouts despite the matchup. He managed to post a 13.2 percent swinging strike percentage in his last start against Pittsburgh.
Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers, $16,400– Nelson has made major improvements this season and he will face a Nationals team that is short on left-handed power, which is Nelson’s biggest weakness. Nelson has a 22.0 percent strikeout percentage, 53.9 percent groundball percentage and 31.9 percent soft contact percentage to right-handed hitters at home this season. Over the last 30 days, Nelson has struck out 26.9 percent of righties. He is too cheap for a matchup that is much more favorable than it may appear at first glance.
Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians, $17,400- Clevinger has shown huge upside mixed in with some inconsistency this season, but he is usually a pretty easy pitcher to predict. Clevinger has three quality offspeed pitches that all generate swinging strikes and complement his mid-90s fastball. His issue is a high walk rate that stems from a very low 41.1 percent zone percentage. He is at his best when he is facing teams that have aggressive hitters that will chase pitches out of the zone, such as the Royals in his last start, as hitters have made contact with just 53.9 percent of Clevinger’s pitches that they have swung at outside of the zone this season.
The Tigers’ trade of Justin Upton last night leaves them with a much weaker lineup than they began the season with, as three of their main power hitters in Alex Avila, J.D. Martinez and Upton are now all wearing different uniforms. The projected lineup for tonight’s game features 7 right-handed hitters and Clevinger has a 28.8 percent strikeout percentage against righties this season. On top of that, six of the nine hitters have above average o-swing percentages which, as mentioned, is important for Clevinger.
Finally, there is no left-handed power in the lineup. Clevinger has allowed 1.85 home runs per nine innings to lefties, but Andrew Romine and Alex Presley have careers ISOs against right-handed pitching of .070 and .136, respectively. This lines up as another spot where Clevinger should have success.
Lucas Duda, Tampa Bay Rays, $7,800 — Duda gets a nice park shift as he faces Reynaldo Lopez in Chicago. Lopez did not have as strong a season at AAA this season as most people expected and he is a flyball pitcher who, in his limited time with the White Sox this season, has allowed 2.61 home runs per nine innings. Duda has a .362 wOBA and .278 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 12 months and can do a lot of damage tonight against Lopez and a terrible Chicago bullpen.
Logan Morrison, Tampa Bay Rays, $8,400– I usually try and avoid writing about two hitters from the same team but Duda and Morrison are two of the top hitter plays on the slate at any position. Morrison is $600 more expensive than Duda but has shown even more power against right-handed pitching than Duda, with a .309 ISO against righties over the last 12 months. He is also in good form as he has a 63 percent flyball percentage over the last 15 days and his average distance on balls in play is 8 feet further than his season long average. He, too, should benefit from the improved hitting environment at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies, $10,800– Rostering Blackmon at home is a bit of a no-brainer but he deserves a mention anyway. Taijuan Walker has allowed just shy of 1.5 home runs per nine innings to opposing lefties this season and Blackmon has a .520 wOBA and .409 ISO at home against right-handed pitchers this season. On top of what he can do at the plate, Walker has been very bad at holding baserunners over the last couple of seasons. Blackmon has 13 stolen bases this season and should be able to run on Walker easily if he happens to only reach first base in any of his plate appearances.
Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins, $10,800– The beauty of FantasyDraft is that it is relatively easy to fit your favorite one-offs into your lineup. Stanton should be one of your favorites tonight. He, obviously, has upside in any matchup but this is an especially appealing one. Nick Pivetta has shown flashes of upside this season but has really struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark. His 41.9 percent flyball percentage and 44.9 percent hard contact percentage to righties has led to 2.98 home runs per nine innings for right-handed hitters against Pivetta. While the game being played in Miami does help Pivetta’s flyball tendencies compared to his home park in Philadelphia, Stanton clearly has enough power that the stadium he plays in does not matter. Do what you can to pay up for Stanton tonight. Marcell Ozuna – $9,000 is an excellent option if you cannot quite find the money for Stanton.
Best of luck in taking second place tonight! ~ShipMyMoney