MLB Tournament Thoughts by Peter Christensen aka DraftCheat – 8/4/17
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Now let’s get down to business with some insight from DraftCheat!
Tonight on FantasyDraft, we have a nice $10,000 Home Run with a very manageable $25 price point. The other thing to keep in mind is that 25% of the field will win tonight and with a 12 entry maximum on this tournament, no single player will flood the entry pool with a massive bankroll.
Kevin Gausman BAL vs DET $15,600 – The Orioles’ right-hander struggled immensely at the start of this season but has since turned around his fortunes and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in July, finishing 5th in the all-important whiff/swing metric at 34%, right behind superstar pitchers Corey Kluber, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Archer, and Max Scherzer.
Gausman is utilizing his fastball less frequently and throwing more splitters and sliders which has led to more whiffs, strikeouts, and better overall results. He should once again go overlooked tonight as he typically does given a relatively healthy team total for the Tigers, but I fully expect Gausman to dominate once again and he comes in at a discounted price tag of $15,600.
R.A. Dickey ATL vs MIA – $10,800 – Like Gausman, Dickey continues to pitch well in the second half of the year after a change in his primary catcher from Kurt Suzuki to pitch-framer extraordinaire Tyler Flowers. Dickey gets a home matchup against a decent Marlins offense, but one that hasn’t seen Dickey or a knuckle ball very often. Dickey has also been better at home this season and is incredibly cheap on Fantasy Draft checking in at just $10,800. Pair Dickey with Kevin Gausman and you can essentially roster any hitter you want.
Jose Altuve HOU vs TOR – $10,200 – One of the hitters I’ll be paying for today with my savings at pitcher is Jose Altuve. The Astros second baseman is nothing short of incredible delivering night in and night out, and gets a very strong matchup tonight against the Blue Jays’ Cesar Valdez, who is yielding a whopping 55% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters this season, tops on the slate by an incredible 14%. The Astros in general make for very strong plays tonight as they should beat up on Valdez and the Blue Jays’ bullpen.
Freddie Freeman ATL vs MIA – $10,200 – While this play is a better option for GPPs as Freeman is certain to carry very low ownership given that he has a left vs. left matchup against the Marlins’ Adam Conley, the matchup is much better here than it might first appear to your average DFS player. Freeman handles lefties very well and maintains nearly all of his power vs. left-handed pitching with a .277 ISO on the season.
Additionally, Conley does not have much discernible splits himself, getting hit hard by lefties and striking them out at a pedestrian rate. This matchup profiles well for Freeman all the way around and while you’ll have to pay to get him into your lineup, you could reap the benefits with a big game at low ownership.
Mike Trout LAA vs OAK -$10,200 – Trout is simply incredible and worth playing on nearly every slate, tonight being no exception. The best player in baseball, Trout is on fire right now and gets a strong matchup against RHP Jharel Cotton, an average pitcher at best who doesn’t have the arsenal to compete with Trout’s greatness. There is not a ton of analysis to be done here, simply lock and load the slugging, speedy outfielder into your lineups and reap the rewards.
Charlie Blackmon COL vs PHI – $10,200 – Charlie Blackmon at home vs. a right-handed starting pitcher is about as big of a hitter lock that we see in DFS. Blackmon is averaging an incredible 13.6 fantasy points at home compared to just 8.5 on the road, and that number climbs higher when you weed out left-handed starting pitchers.
Opposing hurly RHP Vince Valesquez is a solid pitcher, but Blackmon should dominate this matchup on his way to another big game. He’ll certainly be popular, but for good reason. He makes for a tough fade even at this price and ownership level.
Good luck out there tonight! ~ DraftCheat