Fantasy NASCAR Picks-O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas

Pearce breaks down his picks for this weekend’s Xfinity and NASCAR races below!

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Now back to the great analysis from Pearce!

First we will start off with the Sunday NASCAR race, scroll below to find the Xfinity breakdown.

 

NASCAR – O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway Field Breakdown

Kevin Harvick – He was the fastest at all of the intermediate tracks and the quasi-intermediate track (Phoenix). He was making his way to the front at Fontana before he wrecked himself. Harvick won the last Texas race and scored 26 fast lap points. He’ll have the fastest 10, 15, and 20 lap average. You can game theory fade him if you MME. It worked at Fontana. He’s expensive, but his price is irrelevant. He either hits or he doesn’t. He’s a pick ‘em.

Martin Truex, Jr. – Finally, Truex showed elite speed at Fontana. He hasn’t won at Texas, but he’s been consistently fast in the last four races. The track changed a lot last year, and the team adjusted to the repave. Truex scored 26 hog points in the spring race and 58 hog points in the fall race.

Kyle Busch – Last spring, Kyle Busch suffered bad luck at Texas. In the fall he suffered from apathy. It was a meaningless race because he had already qualified for the playoffs, and winning would have hurt him. Huh? If he wins two playoff races, then two cars point their way into the championship. That would have guaranteed the #1 contender, Truex,  a championship spot. It’s surprising that no one in the NASCAR media mentioned that last season, but it’s not really. They’re all lap dogs for NASCAR. This is a major glitch in the playoff elimination system.

What’s that you say? I need to take off my tin foil hat? Minutes before the race, Kyle Busch said on XM radio that the Texas fall race was meaningless and his team was focused on Homestead. Kyle Busch then proceeded to wreck on the first lap. The first lap. Who wrecks on the first lap? The guy that’s not allowed to park. Ever watch the NFL? What do playoff teams do the last week? They rest players. If Kyle Busch did that, he would have to deal with NASCAR, his fans, and his sponsors. He wrecked on the first lap, and then proceeded to cruise around for the rest of the race.

Still don’t believe me? Guess who he wrecked into on the first lap? His rival Brad Keselowski who was fighting for a playoff spot. That’s a lot of coincidences, but the real NASCAR media can’t be bothered by this stuff. The only person that actually cares about what’s going on is some dude writing fantasy NASCAR articles in his living room. Watch the video. Kyle Busch tried to wreck Keselowski on start. Kyle has said it many times that he owes Brad plenty of pay back, what better time than a meaningless race for him and an important race for Brad.

A couple months before that race, Keselowski wrecked Kyle Busch at Watkins Glen. Kyle responded by saying he wanted to “kill” Keselowski. This is so obvious, how come the media has never talked about this Texas incident? Unless of course, NASCAR wouldn’t let them because it makes their terrible playoff system look like a joke. Think about it. A driver that qualifies for the championship at Martinsville can go to Texas and Phoenix and attempt to wreck out his biggest threats. That could never happen at this level, but it did.

Brad Keselowski – After the Las Vegas race last year, Keselowski fell off the map. He’ll earn a top 10. It’s really not that difficult. You can throw out the 20th-37th place drivers. He just has to out race the 11th to 20th place cars. A Penske Ford should have no problem out running the Ricky Stenhouses and Austin Dillons of the world.

Chase Elliott – I am not making any predictions. I am going into this race with a tabula rasa approach. What Elliott does in practice is what matters. Hendrick should have made the appropriate adjustments to the new Chevy this week. Some will say that Hendrick deserves more time. They will say that JGR didn’t win in the new Toyota until the July New Hampshire race.

Martin Truex was fast at the being on the season in the new Toyota body last year. Also, Kyle Busch didn’t win any of the early races, but he was fast at Phoenix, Kansas, and Charlotte. Either way, the only thing that matters for Elliott is if he is fast in practice.

Kyle Larson – It’s Harvick, Truex, Kyle Busch, then Kyle Larson. The shift to the new Chevy body is probably the reason he’s the 4th fastest. Hopefully, Chip Ganassi has made adjustments. I want to see Larson first or second in 15 lap averages. I want to see that his fall off is comparable to Harvick. If it isn’t, then this team is still playing catch up.

Denny Hamlin – If he’s on the front row, sure. If you think two cars run away with the show, then he could squeeze into the optimal lineup with a couple place differential points and forty plus finishing position points. He and Brad Keselowski are the same, but Hamlin’s price makes him viable.

Joey Logano – A cheaper version of the Hamlin play.

Ryan Blaney – A cheaper version of the Logano play. Maybe, he could squeeze into a three hog lineup. Let’s say you play Harvick, Truex, and Busch. Nope. That won’t work.

Jimmie Johnson – Based on track history this is a cheap price. Based on the car it’s about right. Based on the driver having a gray beard the price is right. Tony Stewart with grey bread sucked. Jeff Gordon with gray beard sucked. Dale Jr. just with beard sucked. It’s a scientific fact. Truex won with a beard, but that was an upgrade compared to his previous style, the boy band/hard rock chin strap. Lebron James’ crazy beard lost to Golden State. Lebron James normal beard wins a championship for cCeveland. Hockey beard doesn’t count. Playoff beards are dumbest thing in the world.

Hey let’s all grow our beards during the playoffs. Cool, I’ve already got one. Hey, me too. Wait, we all have beards already! Is this my regular season beard or may playoff beard? How about a team shaves for the playoffs. Remember 15 years ago when NO ONE had a beard. It was embarrassing to have a beard. Now, it’s cool to have a beard, but if everyone does something shouldn’t it be uncool? Look at Jimmie Johnson’s beard. Tell me that the beard trend isn’t over.

If you believe that beards are forever, just look at family photos of your dad. You’ll notice beard, no beard, mustache, beard, no beard again. It’s cyclical. If your dad followed trends, then how are you any different? I expect you to shave that damn beard off at the end of this article.

Kurt Busch – As long as he doesn’t qualify too far forward, he can hold his position and sneak into the optimal lineup. He might not be the best point per dollar play, but he could squeeze into the optimal lineup by raw points. Plus, he always has the chance of going under-owned because he’s not elite, and there are more appealing drivers for slightly less.

Aric Almirola – With the price drop, he’s back in play. We need Almirola to qualify poorly, but that’s not a big if. His average finish this season is 11th, and that’s where I would put him this weekend. That’s 33 fantasy points and that’s not enough at his price. We need some place differential.

Clint Bowyer – I am kicking myself. I went back and looked at every lap from practice #2 at Martinsville. It was clear that he could be a hog. He was third on 20 lap average, and 75% of his laps were +93 mph. That ranked him number one. I screwed up. I had already made up my mind after practice #1, not believing there would be a practice #2….At intermediate tracks, he’s been fine. He struggled a little and got into a little bit of a wreck at Las Vegas, but other than that, he’s a top 10 car. He’s priced too low. DraftKings must have been partying with Bowyer when they came up with this price. His ownership is going to be sky high this week. He’ll be completely out of play next week when he’s priced at $9,500. I’ll bet anyone that he’s in my DraftKings price check video next week. Yes, I can put anyone in the video that I choose, but for the most part, I take the 3 biggest price changes each week. Anyone want to take this bet? I got $100 that says Bowyer is in the price check next week. How about $100 that he is in the price check next week as one of the three biggest increases, then one of the three biggest decreases the following week?

Erik Jones – This is a steal. Statistically, he’s better at the intermediate tracks than all the drivers priced slightly above him. Point per dollar he’s better than Johnson, Blaney, and Logano. I wonder if other fantasy NASCAR articles say, “I’m Jonesing for Jones.” That’s sound pretty terrible.

Ryan Newman – Did I ever tell you the story about how this guy cost me $35,000. Of course I did. I hate this guy.

Alex Bowman – You know that Daft Punk song “Harder Better Faster Stronger?” No? Well, do you know the Kanye West song “Stronger?” Of course you know that one. Anyway, Bowman is getting better every week. This shouldn’t be a surprise. He’s never been given anything. He’s no one’s relative. His dad isn’t a CEO. He’s experienced the struggle of being a real race car driver. The only thing worse than running for BK Racing is losing your BK Racing ride. That’s rock bottom. Bowman worked his way back into Cup by being the Hendrick engineer’s test driver in the simulator. Every week while young drivers are live streaming on twitch, recording podcasts in their barn or with former Sprint Cup models, or editing their vlogs, Bowman is in the simulator putting in work. If you want to root for a racer, this is your guy.

Austin Dillon – I will gladly take a 15th place finish from Dillon this week, but not negative place differential. If I can get 35 fantasy points from him, I’ll be pleased. He scored 33 points at Texas last fall.

Paul Menard – He’ll get hyped up just like every week, so I’ll fade the ownership. I’d rather have the safety of Austin Dillon or the low ownership and upside of Suarez.

Daniel Suarez – I play him on the wrong weeks. He’s like MLB DFS. His pit crew breaks a pit gun every week. If nothing goes wrong, he has the skill and the car to finish inside the top 10. That’s a big if because his team messes up a lot and so does Suarez. I wish that he was a little more expensive, so people would stay away. His ownership will probably be higher than I would like for it to be.

The new Texas track isn’t very racey. If your car is fast, then you’re fast. The driver can’t gain or lose much this week. These are the tracks where I like Suarez. He’s got a great car, and he has to make a big mistake to screw this up…but he’s been know to do that. He improved from the spring Texas race (20th place car) to the fall race (15th place car).

Jamie McMurray – Let’s recap. One week he has bad luck. He burns DFS players. They swear never again. Ownership drops, so his price drops. The next week the same thing happens. The next week the same damn thing happens. Of all the drivers that have been crucified in the slack chat, McMurray has got to be number one. It’s been brutal. He’s got game theory written all over him, but who’s to say he’s not done burning money?

McMurray doesn’t have a mechanical flaw or the yips. This is straight bad luck. We’re talking dark cloud following him around. You can study lap times and track history, but it doesn’t matter. This isn’t a scientific, data driven pick. Do you believe someone has a Jamie McMurray voodoo doll? Yes or no. If yes, do you think that person will be actively poking it this week? Yes or no. If you answered no to any of those questions, then go for it, but I don’t want to see you in the slack chat bad mouthing McMurray. You can find a better use for your time – investigate who has this voodoo doll. I think it’s the spaghetti monster with green ears.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – 18 more drivers to go. Good grief. Stenhouse is the less safe Austin Dillon. He’s got just as much speed, but remember this is Wrecky Spinhouse we’re talking about. He’s got upside, and he can end up on his side. His cheap price tag will inflate ownership, but that will likely be negated by qualifying too far forward. Last fall he started 12th and finished 12th and scored the 12th most fantasy points.

That’s the sick fetish play you’ve got to be into this week. He wasn’t in the optimal lineup because of his price, but if he does that this week, he’ll be in the optimal lineup. Your value plays should make you a little sick. You can check out the trends in this week’s podcast; I go over nauseam ad nauseam.

William Byron – He’s pretty cheap, but unpredictable. That’s not a cop out response. If you’ve looked at his practice laps from week to week, it appears that he does not know what he’s doing. He’ll nail a lap, and follow it up with his slowest lap of anyone in happy hour. He does the same thing in races. This is why he slips to 30th at times. If you mess up, you’re going to get passed by two cars.

If Byron gets the next five laps right, it doesn’t matter. The cars aren’t going to just let him by. Then he messes up another lap and gives up another spot. It usually takes him half of the race to figure it out. Here’s my advice to Byron’s team. Forget about qualifying. Spend all of practice 1 in race trim, so Byron can get as many laps under his belt before the race. If Byron qualifies well, he’s going to slide back to 30th during the race. That’s the same spot he’ll be in if he doesn’t practice qualifying. Not only am I the king of NASCAR media, but I should be the 24 car’s crew chief, too.

Darrell Wallace, Jr. – I am more likely to buy the frozen premade Bubba Burgers at the grocery store than roster Bubba Wallace. Now, if the choice were between Bubba Wallace and a JTM, then I’m going Bubba Wallace.

Ty Dillon – Here comes another Fantasy NASCAR theory… Last year, Ty Dillon was always slow during practice, but during the race, he would find a way to finish around 20th. It seemed like he could just hang onto the leap lap or always get the lucky dog. This year, there hasn’t been any cautions. Dillon can’t hang onto the lead lap or get the lucky dog. He can’t squeeze his way to 20th.

If someone wants to go over the data from last year and confirm this, then that would be great. Otherwise, I am going to treat this like other believable theories such as evolution, climate change, and the big bang. It’s right up there.

A.J. Allmendinger – He’s been around a 20th place car at Texas, and his team has shown improvement every week at the intermediate tracks. My guess is that he finishes 22nd.

 

Kasey Kahne – 23rd.

 

Chris Buescher – At Las Vegas, he finished 15th. He looked good in the happy hour practice that weekend. If he has a top 20 car on the short run in the happy hour practice (he never makes long runs and there isn’t much fall off at this lap turner), then he can be a top 20 car. He would likely become my favorite value play at that point… This is his hometrack, too. It’s over! 100% Buescher this week!

Trevor Bayne – He’s really cheap, but we said that last week. He’s cheap because he has 3 DNFs in 6 races. When he doesn’t DNF, he’s a top 20 driver, and that’s awesome at this price. We said that last week, too. There have been so few racing cautions this year that you can remember them all. You can also remember that Trevor Bayne has been most of them. At some point, it has to level out, right? No one wrecks at the repaved, one groove race track in Texas. Trevor Bayne’s response, “hold my beer.”

Michael McDowell – The punts in the back are off limits. It’s Chastain to McDowell. You can throw Bayne and Buescher in, too (they’re not true punts because they have real rides). If I have to see that McDowell wreck one more time. The same people that chastise you for complaining about long green flag runs and the lack of cautions, are the same people that salivate over the McDowell wreck at Texas.

You can’t have it both ways. You can’t be a racing purist, but hyperventilate when someone posts the McDowell wreck on Reddit twice a year. “I’ll tell you, NASCAR should be commended for how safe they’ve made these cars.” You told us that last fall, and in the spring, and in the fall before that, as a matter of fact, you’ve been saying that two times a year for the last 10 years. You even sneak it in at the other tracks, if there is a somewhat hairy wreck. STOP! I’m losing my mind. I don’t care much for McDowell, I’d rather have his teammate, Ragan.

David Ragan – He is on a 5 race top 25 streak, but like I said two weeks ago, just look at the 26th through 37th place drivers, it’s not saying much. What’s funny is that Ragan’s only finish outside of the top 25 was a restrictor plate race. I can’t make sense of this world anymore.

Matt DiBenedetto – He stunk at Fontana and Atlanta, but those are old worn out surfaces. He scored top 25 finishes at Las Vegas and Phoenix (arguably more of an intermediate track than a short track). They’ve all been lap turners, but as far as tire management goes, this will be closer to Las Vegas. Don’t feed me the “but Goodyear is bringing a new tire, and you retweeted it.” I retweet articles before I read them. My bad. I read the article. It sounds like the same old crap NASCAR is always feeding us.

Remember five low downforce packages ago, when NASCAR figured it out. The disinformation had the actual drivers in the cars believing it. Obviously it wasn’t true because NASCAR keeps ripping parts off these cars every year like they’re sculpting the Venus De Milo.

Cole Whitt – He’s finished 28th or 27th in every race this season. I’ll take that from a punt, but this probably isn’t a punt week.

Ross Chastain – Whitt finishes 28th, and Chastain finishes 29th. That’s pretty good, they’re out racing good drivers in better equipment. The only way I see these punts cracking the optimal lineup is if cars wreck out. Wrecks don’t happen anymore because side by side racing doesn’t happen anymore. That’s what made the Harvick wreck at Fontana so interesting. Two cars were actually racing.

When they interviewed Larson about it, he was surprised that Harvick was trying to race him. Just think about that. When you first heard that interview, you interpreted it as, Larson being shocked by Harvick’s aggression. Now, knowing what we have learned so far this season, Larson was shocked that Harvick was racing period. Do you know why the broadcasters made such a big deal about the battle for first at the end of the Phoenix race or at end of the Las Vegas race? It’s because no one had been racing each other all day. I’ve been saying this for a couple weeks. Look for it this week. Look for the lap turning.

There are 30 docile cars on the track that are penny-pinching billboards afraid of scratching their car. Compare that to the Xfinity and Truck series, where plenty of cost control measures have been put in place and those guys don’t care what happens to their car. This is their shot to make the big time. The real show is on Saturday. No one is talking about it, but the Xfinity races and the Truck races have been way more entertaining than the Cup races, and it’s because they’re actually racing. Ross Chastain is fun to watch in the Xfinity series. In the Cup series you never see him on the TV screen.

Reed Sorenson – Not at an Intermediate track.

J.J. Yeley – Not in the race.

Harrison Rhodes – Not at an Intermediate track.

Landon Cassill – Not at an Intermediate track.

Gray Gaulding – Not at an Intermediate track. Hold on. Let’s look at this closer. The bum that start last gets a look, but they’ve got to start last. Next, they have to outrace the other bums. Gray is not doing that. Cassill isn’t pulling that off in this car. Same thing with Rhodes. Maybe we can start Sorenson, if he starts last. Then you have to hope 3-4 cars wreck out. That’s not happening. No one wrecks anymore.

One real car wrecked out last year. The other three wrecks were punts. Two of those wreckers were the 39th and 40th place car. We have a 37 car field this week, so caution breeding jalopies will not being gracing us with their presence. Sorry about your luck Ty Dillon. In the spring race, two cars wrecked out. They were punts. They were the 37th and 38th place cars. THAT’S CRAZY.

Texas was ahead of the curve. This was mentioned in the podcast. Cautions are dead this year, and Texas is the biggest lap turner of them all. I hope that each stage goes completely green and four cars finish on the lead lap. The NASCAR purists will talk themselves in circles about how this is real racing and anyone that disagrees just likes wrecks and they should quit watching NASCAR and just watch WWE… at least the WWE is honest about what it is. NASCAR purists are beginning to sound like the guy that bemoans the fact that WWE is fake. They’ve become more detached from the reality of the sport than the football fan that makes the “all they do is turn left” joke.

 

XFINITY – My Bariatric Solutions 300 at Texas Motor Speedway Field Breakdown

Kevin Harvick – Always lock in the top Cup driver in the Xfinity series.

Ryan Blaney – If he looks good in practice, you can pair Blaney with Harvick and a couple punts. In the last Xfinity race, this Penske car ran away from the field. Let’s look at the Atlanta race. Harvick dominated (I don’t use the word lightly); his win was never in doubt. However, he did not hog all of the fast laps in that race. Christopher Bell was able to take Harvick’s fast lap scraps and piece together the second highest fantasy score.

Jamie McMurray – I can’t believe they are making him run these Xfinity races. McMurray said in an interview that he only wants to race at the tracks the Cup series infrequently visits (he mentioned Watkins Glen). Texas is not one of those tracks. McMurray’s original Xfinity schedule did not include Texas. He doesn’t want to run this race.

Ty Dillon – The #3 car is a slug.

Elliott Sadler – He’s a top 5 driver, but that’s not enough at his price. Laps led and fast laps are out of the question, Sadler needs double digit place differential points. Period. I’m not playing him unless that’s a possibility.

Justin Allgaier – It’s the same story as Sadler. Last fall at Texas, Sadler drove from 5th to 4th and scored the 4th most points based on finishing position. He was almost 20 points from the driver with the 3rd most points, and scored only 8 more points than the driver with the 12th most points. After the Cup superstars, the scores start to bunch up.

Cole Custer – Same treatment as above.

Christopher Bell – He’s just cheap enough and just fast enough to steal some fast laps that he’s not in the same lot as the other Xfinity elite. He got part time Xfinity experience at Texas last fall and finished 6th.

Tyler Reddick – He’s cheaper than the guys above, but they’re a little faster. Based on price, I’ll lower my place differential demands a little bit.

Matt Tifft – The RCR driver has surprised me. You don’t switch from JGR to RCR and improve, but Tifft has. The story is great, but his price is too high.

Daniel Hemric – The price is a tad too low. Hemric is a 9K driver this season. The little bit of savings doesn’t do anything for me. From Sadler to Hemric, everything depends on qualifying position. If any of these guys have a double digit starting position, then they will be in play.

Ryan Reed – Atlanta – 10th, Las Vegas – 19th, Phoenix – 18th, and Fontanta – 17th. Atlanta is the outlier. Reed is a 15th place driver, and this price tag is too high.

Ryan Preece – Too cheap for the #18 JGR car. Preece finished 8th at Fontana. Chalky.

Brandon Jones – Too Cheap for a JGR car. Atlanta – 17th (blown tire), Las Vegas – 7th (out raced Kyle Busch), Phoenix – 11th, Fontana – 13th.

Ryan Truex – There are cars that are just as good for less, and better cars for just a little more. He’ll likely be low owned.

Michael Annett – 15th to 20th place driver. Needs to start at least 20th due to the soft pricing this week.

Austin Cindric – He is in the Penske car this week, not the Roush car. In the Roush car, he set your money on fire. At Atlanta, he drove the Penske car to a 7th place finish. He’s priced for the wrong car. I don’t know how much Fantasy Xfinity content is out there, so I can’t tell you whether players will be sharp to this. I assume Twitter will let it be known, and Cindric will be popular.

Chase Briscoe – He’s in the crummy Roush car. He took this car to 15th at Atlanta. Cindric finished 16th in this car at Phoenix, but DNF’d the other races.

Ross Chastain – The Boss finished 10th at Fontana. That’s 5 top 20s in 5 races this season. He hasn’t look bad at the Cup level either. Another thing, his salary dropped $900 this week.

Kaz Grala – This is too cheap for Grala. His crew chief is Shane Wilson (Clint Bowyer’s old Cup crew chief and Brendan Gaughan’s Xfinity crew chief). Wilson wouldn’t take a job with any team. There is something here, and it shows. Grala has finished 16th, 12th, and 14th in the last 3 races.

Ryan Sieg – His team ran out of tires in the last race. These small under funded teams depress me. Sieg is not a bad race car driver, but he’s never had better than a 20th place car. His price tag fits his talent, but his team ran out of FREAKING TIRES! I’m not paying $6,800 for Sieg.

Spencer Gallagher – The Xfinity Austin Dillon, but with a cheap price tag. The only way he screws this up is if he qualifies inside the top 10… We know what’s going to happen now.

J.J. Yeley – He races for Sieg’s team. He’s DNF’d 3 of the last 4. If they can’t afford tires how can they afford a $100,000 engine?

Garrett Smithley – Let’s see if we can get a nickname to stick – Garrett 25th-ley. Get it? He always finishes around 25th.

Dylan Lupton – He’s a decent driver for a decent team in a decent car, but his luck has not been decent. Lupton taught us a valuable lesson at Fontana that we probably already knew. Small team backup cars are garbage.

Alex Labbe – The DFS honeymoon is over, but he’s still a 20th place driver. That’s pretty good for a rookie driving for a small team. I’m thinking about creating a Labbe fan club website called, “It’s Labbe not Labbe.”

Jeremy Clements – His 15th place finish at Fontana reminded us why he needs to be on our radar every week. Fun fact: This team doesn’t have a big rig hauler. Clement rolls up to the track in his pickup truck pulling a trailer. You’re not going to get any closer to old school than Clements.

David Starr – He had engine failures in 2 of 3 west coast races. At Fontana, he didn’t wreck or park, so he defaulted to a 26th place finish.

Vinnie Miller – If he starts in the back.

Joey Gase – He finished 16th and his salary dropped $500. His last 4 races: 26th, 20th, 24th, and 16th. I don’t care if he earned negative place differential in some of those races. He’s not a $5,600 driver. He’s shouldn’t be priced between Light and Starr, there is space joke in there somewhere, but it’s escaping me.

Stephen Leicht – Why is he priced higher than Josh Williams. No way. He must start last, then you can think about. Dead last.

Josh Williams – His average finish is 25th over his last 4 races. Pretty good for a punt, but he’s in much better equipment than the other punts. Let’s run the scenario. He usually start around 28th. If he finishes 25th, that is 22 fantasy points. Is that enough? No. It is not enough points and he is not cheap enough for the optimal lineup. He needs a terrible qualifying effort.

B.J. McLeod – He qualifies too far forward, but he can’t help it; have you seen the cars behind him?

Josh Bilicki – With 42 cars on the entry list, Bilicki may not qualify for the race. Further complicating the Bilicki Glitch is that Joe Nemechek and Bayley Currey are cheaper. If Bilicki starts last, then you know what to do.

Timmy Hill – Two DNFs and two 34th place finishes. I do have to mention that he was in an optimal lineup once with a 34th place finish (he was priced under 5K that week). That says less about Hill, and more about Xfinity Fantasy NASCAR strategy.

Spencer Boyd – He hass been running at the finish in 4 of 5 races this season. All 4 were top 30 finishes.

Chad Finchum – He has DNFs in his last three races. It looks like he ran too many laps in those races for an S&P. He must have really impressed Carl Long in those limited amount of laps because the kid is going to run Carl Long’s Cup car at Bristol. That should be just great.

Joe Nemechek – He is in Matt Mills’ JD Motorsports car. The car sucks, but Mills made it worse. JD Motorsports tries to run races. Nemechek wouldn’t take a ride just to take ride. As Danny Glover would say, “I’m getting too old for this…” Actually, that may not be true. Nemechek finished 27th at Homestead for JDM, but the week before he start and parked for JDM at Phoenix. I can’t verify that it’s a start and park. He didn’t run very many laps in practice that week. That could mean S&P or a mechanical failure.

Normally, I would simply assume S&P, but quickly looking through Joe’s last 8 years of Xfinity races – he never start-and-parked once. Not so fast. Back when it was profitable to start-and-park, Nemechek was the king. In 2009, he start-and-parked 7 times in a row at one point. The #15 car has not start-and-parked once this season, but it has crashed in the last two races.

Matt Mills – Not racing. Nemechek is in his JD Motorsports car.

Mike Harmon – Apparently, he had a clutch problem on lap one. The FanVice subs were not having it, and went after him on social media for starting and parking. Harmon and a NASCAR reporter said it wasn’t a start-and-park. This was never verified. It was very Trump like. You would expect a journalist to provide evidence supporting their claim. The reporter did not. I’m with the FanVice guys. If it walks like a start-and-park, and talks like a start-and-park, then it’s a start-and-park.

Jeff Green – It’s sad. There are 42 cars on the entry list. That means two cars will go home. Green is fast enough to qualify, and he has owners points. He’ll make the race, and park the car.

Morgan Shepherd – S&P.

Bayley Currey – Labbe part 2. Leading up to the Atlanta race, I filled the chat with Labbe info. I loved him. I did a ton of research on the Canadian. Then on Saturday, I found out that everyone else was playing him, too. I’ve already filled the slack chat with Currey info (which is not easy to find), so I’m sure someone in one of those other slack chats that are [insert fire emojis for three lines or a paragraph at editor’s discretion], will be pushing the Bayley Currey punt, too.

Maybe we will keep this one our secret. I’m going to stop talking now.

Remember to check out the FanVice Premium Slack where I will be answering questions on race day for both races along with post-qualifying cheat sheets and projections for both races.

Good Luck! ~ Pearce