FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 9
Let’s find some low-cost value plays at each position so you can mix/match your lineups to take down your tournaments this week. Value here are represented by $6,900 or less for quarterbacks, $6,500 or less for running backs/wide receivers, $5,500 or less on tight ends, $4,500 for kicker and $4,500 and lower for defenses.
We are looking at Sun-Mon slate only, so if you have any questions, hit me up in the Comments Area or reach out to me on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Case Keenum – LAR vs. CAR – $6,300 – Yes, it is Case Freaking Keenum, but hear me out. The Panthers have the fourth best run stuffing defensive line but have a very young secondary, explaining their 27th ranking in pass defense, per Football Outsiders. The game script would indicate, with the Rams being eight point underdogs, that the Rams should test that young secondary at some point, leaving Keenum in position to hit his value rather easily.
Charcandrick West – KC vs. JAC – $5,600 – Meet the Week 9 chalk. A must in cash games this week, even in tourneys, the chalk has not been quite as owned as maybe it should be. If it sounds familiar, it is just what was said in this space last week about Denver RB Devontae Booker, who made value at his low number. This week, the Jags are good against the pass but not as stout against the run, and the game script favors a Chiefs lead and West, without Jamaal Charles or Spencer Ware this week, should be front and center on everyone’s roster.
Darren Sproles – PHL at NYG – $4,800 – Sproles has somehow wrestled the primary running back duties from Ryan Mathews, and now is getting close to 20 touches per game which, even against a tough defense like the Giants, is good enough at this extremely low price.
Ty Montgomery – GB at IND – $6,500 – Classic post-hype week play, with Montgomery recovering from illness to play against one of the worst defenses in football. The game total is super high and the Packers have the touchdown (7.5) edge and playing at home, making a ball control play like Montgomery very valuable.
Latavius Murray – OAK vs. DEN -$6,000 – Denver’s defense is often off-limits to other players, but their run defense is sub-par, ranking 23rd in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards metric. Murray has returned and owned the running back duties for the Raiders, getting twice as many carries as the next guy and seven pass targets last week as well.
Donte Moncrief – IND at GB – $6,100 – Moncrief jumped right back into the fray and got nine targets, nearly missing a huge game by having a long touchdown called back. Against the Packers, Moncrief has a good chance of crossing 10 targets in a game script that will surely see a lot of passes for the Colts.
Michael Thomas – NO at SF – $5,800 – Thomas has his six catch, 60 yards floor with upside down to a science and now plays in a matchup in San Francisco. The Saints going through some running back tumult, which could raise the pass level of the Saints even more. The game total is an amazing 52.5 and the spread only 3.5 in the Saints favor, so there could be plenty of passing game love here.
Kenny Britt – LAR vs. CAR – $6,000 – As discussed with Keenum above, the Rams will find the Panthers pass defense far friendlier than their run defense. With the game script that will demand the Rams pass to catch up, Britt has the best matchup and has been getting the consistent targets to be considered the top target for Keenum.
Stefon Diggs – MiN vs. DET – $6,500 – He does get CB Darius Slay, but the 31st ranked run blocking of the Vikings indicates that, even against the Lions, they must pass. Diggs is easily the top target and with the Vikings the best in the league at not turning the ball over, there will be plenty of chances to score, something the Lions give up in the top half of the league in terms of points per play.
Kyle Rudolph – MIN vs. DET – $5,000 – Rudolph is third among all tight ends in targets per game with 8.0. Chicago is in the bottom half of the league defending the tight end and Rudolph is in on nearly every single snap for the Vikings.
Dennis Pitta – BAL vs. PIT – $5,200 – If Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is back from his meniscus injury, then the Steelers will be larger favorites and the Ravens should throw. In the last two weeks, Pitta has ten targets in each game, and eight the week before those two. With Steve Smith still not practicing, the short area routes are for Pitta and he’s the top option for the Ravens overall, volume wise.
Gary Barnidge – CLE vs. DAL – $5,200 – Not feeling great about Cody Kessler coming back, maybe, but the Cowboys are 30th in defensive efficiency when defending the tight end.
Kickers and Defense:
Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts – $4,400 – Colts give up sack at the highest rate in the league and the Packers are fourth in adjusted sack rate from a defensive standpoint. At home, with a positive game script, they are in play for such a cheap price.
Will Lutz – NO at SF – $4,500 – There a huge game total there and there might be some west coast game bias that will keep the min priced Lutz lower owned that he should be.
Good luck! – Jason