DraftKings NFL Bargain Plays: Week 7
Quarterback – below $6,500
In this edition of DraftKings NFL Bargain Plays: Week 7, there is a ton of value at the quarterback position on DraftKings this weekend. Below are the top three plays at the position but arguments could be made for Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Alex Smith, Brian Hoyer, & Colin Kaepernick. Value that seems destined for failure this week includes Landry Jones and Geno Smith.
Marcus Mariota – TENN vs. IND – $6,000
Marcus Mariota has been an excellent source of value the past two weeks. He finished as QB 6 in week six and QB 4 in week five with similar price tags to this week. He’s now rewarded with a matchup against the hapless Colts secondary. Indianapolis ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass on the year. Through six weeks, the Colts have given up nine touchdowns on 1,761 yards.
Andy Dalton – CIN vs CLE – $6,000
Andy Dalton is coming off a fine performance, in fantasy terms, against the Patriots. He went 21/31 for 254 yards and one touchdown. Now, he gets a prime matchup with the Cleveland Browns defense that ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass. The Browns should provide a great opportunity for AJ Green and the rest of the receivers to get their stats healthy this week.
Kirk Cousins – WAS at DET – $5,900
Last week, Case Keenum finished as QB 2 against the Detroit Lions. Let that sink in for a moment. Now, Kirk Cousins has struggled at times this season, but there is no reason to hold back on the Washington QB this week. The Lions have given up 17 touchdowns, 1,628 yards, and a quarterback rating of 119.3 on the year. In a week that there is a ton of value at quarterback, Dalton and Cousins feel like the most obvious plays at the price point.
Running Back – below $5,000
Tevin Coleman – ATL vs SD – $4,900
Tevin Coleman had a rough outing against the Seattle Seahawks but that was no surprise. Coleman, and the Falcons, get a great matchup as they look to bounce back into the win column. The Chargers have given up over 800 yards to running backs on the ground and through the air, which puts Coleman in a perfect situation. While last week’s results can be concerning, it’s important to see how dreadful San Diego has been against the pass, where Coleman should excel again this week.
James White – NE vs PITT – $4,600
James White played in 61% of the New England offensive snaps against the Bengals last week. With Tom Brady back, it looks like the Patriots are more than comfortable returning to their use of a short pass game in place of a steady run game. Pittsburgh defense was just gashed by Jay Ajayi and sits at 17th in DVOA against the run on the year. With Ben Roethelsberger out for this contest, it could be a game that gets out of hand early, but there’s no reason to believe the Patriots will take their foot off the gas.
Devontae Booker – DEN vs HOU – $3,700
Let the speculation begin. Often, it’s difficult to target running backs in time shares or back up roles, but Devontae Booker’s price tag and increasing workload week over week gets him some time here. Booker has seen limited targets and attempts, but has shown signs of potential in his limited work. CJ Anderson clearly has the contract and years on his side, but Booker should see more opportunities. Houston has struggled against the run on the year and yielded over 100 yards rushing to Frank Gore last week. If given the chance, Booker could provide great salary relief in week seven.
Wide Receiver – below $5,000
Cameron Meredith – CHI at GB – $4,700
Cameron Meredith has become a target monster for the Chicago Bears. In week five he saw 12 targets and in week six garnered 15 looks from quarterback Brian Hoyer. This week, Meredith has the Thursday night matchup with the Green Bay Packers. The Packers defense has struggled against the pass this year and has injuries to three of their top cornerbacks. While typically fading the Thursday night game is the move, it seems having some exposure to Meredith and a wide receiver still to come may make a lot of sense.
Kenny Britt – LA vs NYG (London) – $4,300
Lets chase some points, shall we? Kenny Britt is coming off a breakthrough performance against the Detroit Lions last week. Britt had seen a steady dose of single digit targets and conversions on those targets but had yet to get into the endzone. Last week, he found the endzone twice. This week he gets a matchup with the Giants secondary that is 19th in pass DVOA according to Football Outsiders. If we take that a step further, the Giants are 29th in WR2 pass DVOA. Britt most likely won’t meet last week’s output, but he should have the opportunity to put up points again.
Torrey Smith – SF vs TB – $3,800
The return of Colin Kaepernick quickly buoyed the value of San Francisco wideout Torrey Smith. Smith saw seven targets. He did only haul in three of those passes, but that was good for 76 yards and a score. This week Smith and the 49ers get a matchup with a Tampa Bay secondary that runs middle of the pack in most passing statistics. The real appeal here is a possible heavy target load for a wideout below 4k.
Pierre Garçon – WAS at DET – $3,700
Picking between Washington Redskins receivers this week may be difficult. Desean Jackson and Jamison Crowder are both viable assets to target at very favorable price points, but we’re going to focus on Pierre Garçon. Garçon has mainly served as Washington’s possession receiver, but that has led to 18 targets over the past two weeks. With a price tag at 3.7k and a matchup against the awful Lions secondary, taking the savings seems like a fine play here.
Marquise Lee – JAX vs OAK – $3,200
Marquise Lee has solidified himself as the third wideout for Jacksonville behind Allens Hurns and Robinson. Lee has seen a steady dose of targets this year, though none have come in the red zone. This week though, the Jaguars take on the Oakland Raiders, who give up 313 yards per game to opposing passing games on the year. While Robinson and Hurns are fine plays, Lee may be an interesting pivot at a very cheap price tag.
Tight End – below $4,000
Hunter Henry – SD at ATL – $3,800
Even with the return of Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry has remained a key cog in the Chargers pass game. He played in 68% of San Diego’s total snaps in week six. He grabbed six receptions with one touchdown. This week, he gets a plus matchup with a Falcons defense that has struggled against pass catching tight ends on the year. There is always a possibility Gates could vulture some red zone looks from Henry, but he will see plenty of chances to put up big numbers this week.
Vernon Davis – WAS at DET – $2,900
*This is dependent on Jordan Reed being out again this week*
Vernon Davis gets a prime matchup with the Detroit Lions. In discussing Pierre Garçon, we already saw the numbers for the Lions against the pass. If Reed is out, Davis should see similar opportunities as last week, just with a batter matchup. Davis was in on 97% of the offensive snaps for Washington. Detroit shows no signs of slowing down their offense or trying to stop their opponent’s, so Davis should see plenty of chances.
Defense/Special Teams – below $3,400
Ravens – BAL at NYJ – $2,800
The Baltimore Ravens travel to New Jersey for the second week in a row, but this week’s results should be much different. The Jets offense is in shambles. It is so in shambles that they are apparently going to start Geno Smith at quarterback. While Ryan Fitzpatrick has been terrible, there looks to be very little upside to Smith under center. The Ravens sub 3k price tags makes them a relative steal and most likely a fairly chalky play this week.