DraftKings NFL Bargain Plays: Week 4
Lots of value plays worked out well in this edition of DraftKings NFL Bargain Plays: Week 4 – let’s take a look at some bargains for this week that have a good shot to reach value.
Quarterback – Below $6,500
Joe Flacco – BAL vs OAK – $5,900
Joe Flacco has seen his price drop from $6,100 to $5,900 after a mediocre week against Jacksonville in week three. Flacco finished 13.76 DraftKings points in what was seen as a plus matchup. Now, he walks into an even better situation against the Oakland Raiders. Even after a solid performance against Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans, the Raiders defense still ranks 28th in DVOA ranking on FootballOutsiders.com. Flacco has seemed comfortable running Marc Trestman’s offense and should continue to get opportunities to throw. Look for the Raiders to more closely resemble the defense from weeks one and two rather than last week’s
Ryan Tannehill – MIA at CIN – $5,800
The chalk of week three didn’t look too bad when all the dust settled. Tannehill finished the week as QB6 and saw his price drop 400 dollars. Cincinnati checks in as 19th in DVOA and has yielded nine touchdowns through the air so far this year, good for a tie for second most in the league. Tannehill has his full complement of wide receivers and a ground game that has only managed 250 yards through three games. Tannehill should have similar luck against the Bengals defense as our next quarterback up.
Trevor Siemian – DEN at TB – $5,400
A day late, a dollar short. Trevor Siemian took the Bengals defense out behind the woodshed, gave ‘em wedgies, and then hung them from the highest flag pole he could find. The Broncos young quarterback finished the week as QB1 and now finds his place here going up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Asking lighting to strike twice is always a fool’s errand, but there is still plenty of value in his $5,400 price tag. Tampa Bay ranks 25th against the pass according to DVOA and has given up seven touchdowns through the air already this year. You don’t need Siemian to put up QB1 numbers to justify playing him at $5,400.
Brian Hoyer – CHI vs DET – $5,000
In taking over for Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer doesn’t have to do too much to woo fantasy football owners into believing in him more than they ever believed in Cutler. Last week, he finished as a top 10 quarterback on the week, posting 22.38 DraftKings points while finding tight end Zach Miller again and again. As of publishing this article, Cutler is day-to-day with his thumb injury so he could, potentially, get the nod for the Bears. The Lions lead the league in passer rating allowed to date at 120.2 and are coming off a thumping from Aaron Rodgers. At minimum salary, Hoyer doesn’t have to do a lot against a struggle defense to meet and exceed value.
Running Back – Below $5,000
Isaiah Crowell – CLE at WAS – $4,400
Isaiah Crowell continues to see his price tag stay below $5,000, dropping back to 300 dollars off his price in week three to $4,400 against Washington. The Redskins boast one of the worst defense against the run by a few measures, including yielding the most touchdowns on the ground to date as well as ranking 32nd in DVOA against the rush. They also rank in the top ten in rush yards per game allowed and yards per attempt. Crowell has averaged over five yards per carry over his first three games and should see ample opportunity to continue that trend this weekend.
Carlos Hyde – SF v DAL – $4,200
Carlos Hyde is one of the few, indisputable, lead backs left in the National Football League. Though he hasn’t seen insane numbers through three weeks, he has found the end zone four times and gets a matchup with a middle of the road Dallas rush defense. Dallas on the year sits middle of the pack in DVOA against the rush but has allowed the fifth highest yards per carry at 4.8. Hyde may not have the highest ceiling, but at $4,200 he doesn’t need much to prove worthy of some lineup consideration.
Jordan Howard – CHI vs DET – $3,700
Fantasy football continues to be about opportunity first and foremost. Jordan Howard saw an increase in snaps during week three, even before Jeremy Langford went down with an ankle injury. The rookie running back now stands as possibly the lone healthy running back for the Bears heading into their contest with Detroit. While we documented the Lions struggles against the pass earlier, they rank just 27th against the run in DVOA so far this year, as well. Howard has shown himself to be good enough in the pass game, catching six of his eight targets. He’ll most likely be a highly owned play on DraftKings and should see every opportunity to succeed.
Wide Receiver – Below $5,000
Allen Hurns – JAX vs IND – $4,800
Allen Hurns has seen his price steadily decline over the first four weeks of the season; settling here at $4,800 and in our value section. Hurns true value was via touchdowns last year, something many believed would regress here in 2016. While regression was due, the pendulum rarely swings completely in the opposite direction. Hurns gets a top end matchup with the Colts secondary that has given up over 300 yards per game so far this year. The targets have been there the past two weeks, so if we can see a higher percentage of completions and one trip to the end zone, Hurns will be more than worth his price tag.
Tyrell Williams – SD vs NO – $4,4000
Tyrell Williams recorded a big second half last week and will look to carry it over into a plus matchup with the New Orleans Saints. Williams caught six balls on nine targets last week and has shown himself as the Chargers possession receiver with Travis Benjamin serving as the deep and homerun threat. The Saints defense ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass and Williams will have plenty of room to wander this coming Sunday.
Jamison Crowder – WAS vs CLE – $4,200
Jamison Crowder helped push Washington to their week three victory over the Giants. He’s firmly inserted himself as the number three receiver with a strong intention of pushing Pierre Garcon for WR2 status on the team. Cleveland checks in as 18th against the pass according to DVOA. On the year, he’s seen 25 targets but sits tied for third in red zone targets at 7. He’s made the most of his opportunity and we should expect more of the same this coming weekend.
Tavon Austin – LA at ARI – $4,000
Tavon Austin currently sits 20th in targets on the season. Let the sink in. Forget his absurd contract extension and see that the Rams are making sure to get Austin involved in their offense whatever way possible. An uptick in completion percentage would see a nice bump in productivity and could give Austin a good deal of upside each week at such a cheap price. Arizona has been extremely stingy against the pass, but it doesn’t mean a heavily targeted Austin couldn’t provide some upside in tournaments.
Tight End – Below $4,000
Note: We’ve lowered our “value” moniker for tight end as so many players fell below our price point of $4,500 each week.
Dennis Pitta – Bal vs OAK – $3,900
Dennis Pitta didn’t put up the gigantic numbers some many have hoped for in week three but that’s no reason to ignore his matchup here in week four. We didn’t get to target the Oakland Raiders with Delanie Walker last week, but Pitta should give us a good sense of what could have happened. Pitta has clearly been a favorite target of Joe Flacco to start the year and there is no indication this game should be expected to be any different.
Coby Fleener – NO at SD – $3,200
Coby Fleener finally had the breakout performance we’d been waiting for with the Saints. The New Orleans tight end posting seven receptions on 11 targets with 109 yards and a score. Up next is a matchup with San Diego who has been middle of the pack against the pass to start the year. This game has a 53.5 over-under as of the publishing of this article and Fleener should be a big part of the Saints offense. If Willie Snead is back in the fold, it may diminish Fleener’s role slightly, but shouldn’t be enough to scare you off at this price point.
Zach Miller – CHI vs DET – $2,700
Zach Miller is coming off a breakout performance against the Cowboys last week. Miller was targeted nine times by Brian Hoyer and converted eight into receptions with two touchdowns. Up next, he gets a juicy matchup with the Detroit Lions. The Lions are a week removed from Delanie Walker toasting them for six receptions, 83 yards, and a score. Miller’s value could be tied closely to who is in at quarterback for the Bears, so monitor that situation closely.
Defense/Special Teams – Below $3,300
Texans – HOU vs TENN – $3,200
The big news for the Houston Texans is that JJ Watt has been placed on Injured Reserve with a back injury. Typically, that might translate into thinking the Texans should be faded, but it looks like the opportune time to roster them. Tennessee comes in as a bit of a one-dimensional offense with Mariota unable to really establish himself early on this year. The over/under currently sits at just 40.5 and should Houston should be able to hold this Titans offense in check.
Jets – NYJ vs SEA – $2,800
Russell Wilson is nursing a few different injuries and may not suit up for the Seahawks this week. As poorly as the Jets secondary has looked, the defense played well enough to win last week and should have a fairly easy time containing a Trevone Boykin led offense. Even if Wilson does suit up, this may be worth the flier as his injuries will take a toll on his performance.