DraftKings NFL Bargain Plays – Week 17
Quarterback – below $6,500
Matthew Stafford – DET vs GB – $6,000
Matthew Stafford has seen a steady decline in his price tag over the past several weeks. In a must win, primetime game on Sunday night, Stafford faces a Green Bay defense that has given up 300-plus yards each of the last two weeks and on the year sits 20th in pass DVOA over on FootballOutsiders.com. While more expensive quarterbacks are in good spots, Stafford can make for a good pivot in a game with a 49.5 over/under and three point spread.
Tom Savage – HOU vs TEN – $5,400
Tom Savage took a bit of a beating last week against the Bengals. He was unable to produce double digit DK points. This week though, he gets a prime matchup with the Tennessee Titans defense that has struggled all season against the pass. They sit 26th in DVOA and has given up the second most passing yards per game on the season. The hope here is that Savage locks in and can connect with DeAndre Hopkins throughout a contest that has an admittedly low total.
Running Back – below $5,000
Jacquizz Rodgers – TB vs CAR – $4,800
With Doug Martin(suspension) & Charles Sims(injury) out for Sunday’s game, Jacquizz Rodgers enters back into our 2016 fantasy consciousness. Back in weeks five and seven of the season, Rodgers saw lead back attempts and put up more than efficient numbers for the Buccaneers. This week he gets a Panthers team that has seemingly folded up the tents already on their 2017 season. Luke Keuchly remains out for Carolina which leaves a gaping hole in the linebacking corps. Carolina has, in fact, been one of the better rush defenses on the year, but this is a volume play for Rodgers and the Bucs.
Isaiah Crowell – CLE vs PIT – $4,400
Let us close out the season the same way we began it, by recommending Isaiah Crowell at running back. Crowell gets a matchup with a Steelers defense that ranks fairly, if not very, well in most rushing defensive metrics. The issue here though is Pittsburgh is already discussing taking this game lightly. The Browns have a legitimate chance to be leading in this one which would allow Crowell to bleed some clock in the second half. The Browns back should see at least 15 to 20 carries in this one with potential for some targets as well.
Fitzgerald Touissant – PIT vs CLE – $4,300
On the other side of the Cleveland-Pittsburgh tilt is the potential for DeAngelo Williams and Fitzgerald Touissant to get some run. Le’Veon Bell will be inactive which leaves D-Will and Touissant as the most likely benefactors. While most will lean towards Williams here, the savings to Touissant and potential second half focus make Touissant the stronger play at value here. While the Browns do stand a chance here, the Steelers are still favored by six in this contest. Someone will have to score points and it may as well be Touissant.
Wide Receiver – Below $5,000
Steve Smith Sr – BAL at CIN – $4,900
Let the narratives wash over you. Steve Smith Sr. confirmed that Sunday would be his last game in the NFL. While Smith has shown some upside this season, it’s always great to see a great player go out on his own terms. Smith gets a matchup with the Bengals for his last rodeo. Cincinnati ranks 17th in DVOA and has been middle of the pack in receiving yards and touchdowns on the year. It wouldn’t be too surprising to see Joe Flacco try to get Smith into the end zone this weekend.
JJ Nelson – ARI at LA – $4,600
JJ Nelson has seen 18 targets over the past two weeks. This weekend, he gets a matchup with the LA Rams, who currently rank 21st against the pass according to Football Outsiders. On the year, the Rams are tied for third in receiving touchdowns allowed (29). The Cardinals wide receiving corps has been a tough one to peg on the year, but Nelson should be in a good spot at a lower price point. This makes him at least viable heading into Sunday’s contests.
Marvin Jones – DET vs GB – $4,200
🎵Meeeeeeeeeeeeee aannnd Marvin Jones, Marvin Jones.🎵 Now, how many actually got that reference? Marvin Jones was one of the top targets to start this year for the Detroit Lions but fell on hards times as the season continued. His price tag sits at its second lowest point of the season. Over the past four weeks, Jones has seen 28 targets and should have opportunities against the Green Bay Packers defense. As mentioned earlier, this game sits at a 49.5 over/under and should provide plenty of fantasy goodness. Yes, Jones has some major risks here, but his upside in a pairing with Stafford may be too good to pass up.
Tight End – below $4,000
Eric Ebron – DET at GB – $3,600
While Golden Tate is definitely worth while, Eric Ebron’s price tag makes him worth a look as well. Ebron is coming off a great game against the Cowboys and should be in line for at least a similar target share this week.
Coby Fleener – NO at ATL – $3,100
It’s never a good thing to write up Coby Fleener, but here we are. The game total is pushing 57 and we should see the Saints trying to play catch up all day. Atlanta has struggled against the pass all season and have been a middle of the pack team against tight ends. While Fleener is way down the pecking order here, the high total and potential for points makes him an interesting punt at tight end.
Jared Cook – GB at DET – $3,100
Detroit ranks 29th in passing DVOA against tight ends on the year. This game has been mentioned a few times here from the Detroit side, but obviously Green Bay is going to put up a ton of points as well. Jared Cook has seen 19 targets over the last four weeks and should be in line for at least a few on Sunday. This game has the potential to be a major shoot out and getting cheap exposure to it makes some sense.
Defense/Special Teams – below $3,400
Jets – NYJ vs BUF – $2,300
There is plenty to point to in this contest to believe both of these teams will not show up. The Bills had their head coach fired and their franchise quarterback benched. The Jets have had a wretched season with their quarterback and defensive secondary both suffering awful setbacks. Here we are though. EJ Manuel is not a good quarterback. The Jets still have a very solid rush defense that should help to mitigate a gimpy LeSean McCoy. Buffalo has yielded 43 sacks on the year.
Browns – CLE vs SD – $2,100
What better way to close out to close out the season of writing up DK value plays than to focus on the Cleveland Browns. The game total has dropped to 42.5 and -6 in favor of Pittsburgh with the news of all the probable inactives for the Steelers. Cleveland made a decent showing last week and should face off against Landry Jones here. For such a small cost, a six point return wouldn’t be the worst thing.