DraftKings NFL Bargain Plays – Week 16
Quarterback – below $6,500
Matt Barkley – CHI vs WAS – $5,000
While it is certainly a week to roster Jordan Howard, you may want to look at some of his teammates as well for good, cheap options on DraftKings. Matt Barkley has had two 20-plus DK point outings in his last four and the Redskins can struggle against the pass. The Bears coaching staff has shown they trust Barkley to throw the ball a ton and Washington is a middle tier defense against the pass. While Josh Norman is impressive, he can’t cover everyone.
Blake Bortles – JAC vs TEN – $5,000
So here we are. Week 16 has thrust some of the worst disappointments of the year firmly into play in daily fantasy. It is easy to dismiss Blake Bortles due to his inconsistency this year, but it is worth the further research. Tennessee ranks 23rd against the pass in Football Outsiders DVOA metric and has strung together some poor perfomances. At minimum salary, Bortles doesn’t even have to be that great to give us a 15 point performance that could vault teams into contenders. If Bortles can keep the turnovers down, his 16 interceptions ties for third most on the year, he could have a very positive day against the Titans.
Tom Savage – HOU v CIN – $5,000
Fun fact: Tom Savage started his collegiate career at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey. Even better fact: Deandre Hopkins is, in fact, alive. Savage helped pulled Houston’s seasons back from the brink of disaster with a come from behind win last week. Now, he’s being trust with the Texans offense against a subpart Bengals D. Lamar Miller is banged up. Savage may just target Hopkins 20 times in this game. If he does, it will be glorious. The Bengals are the 18th rank pass defense in DVOA. They don’t generate a ton of pressure and are bottom half team in takeaways.
Running Back – below $5,000
Dion Lewis – NE vs NYJ – $4,800
Running back value is hard to come by this week, but Dion Lewis presents an intriguing option. The New York Jets defense has been very solid against the run but awful against the pass on the year. While LaGarette Blount will surely get touches here, it would be all that surprising to see Tom Brady lead this attack through the air. Enter, Dion Lewis. Lewis saw 18 carries and three targets last week. If you are going to attack the Jets defense with a running back, it would seem Lewis is your best bet.
Charles Sims – TB at NO – $3,800
So this is what the bottom of the barrel looks like? Funny, I thought it’d be colder. The New Orleans & Tampa Bay game sits at a 52 over/under. There will be points, oh yes, there will be points. Charles Sims has slid back into his typical pass catching work out of the Buccaneers backfield. The Saints rank 32nd (that’s out of 32 teams in case you were wondering) in DVOA against pass catching running backs. Last week, he saw five targets and should see at least the same number this week.
Wide Receiver – below $5,000
Cameron Meredith – CHI vs WAS – $4,900
Yes, Jordan Howard is in a great spot this week. Cameron Meredith is also in a great spot. It wouldn’t surprise me if a Barkley/Meredith pairing was a very good starting point to your lineup construction this week. As stated above, the Redskins defense isn’t great against the pass and allows for big plays. If Josh Norman shadows Alshon Jeffrey, Meredith should have prime matchups across the field.
Marqise Lee – JAC vs TEN – $4,300
Hello, old friend. We talked up Marqise Lee earlier in the season. He has become an extremely solid number three receiver for Jacksonville. Though coming off a no-catch week, Lee gets a great matchup against the Titans and should see plenty of targets from Bortles. Allen Robinson is also sub 5k on DraftKings this week, and obviously holds a ton of upside, but for our purposes here, Lee presents a higher floor though infiitely lower ceiling.
Chris Hogan – NE vs NYJ – $4,200
Malcolm Mitchell’s has risen to 5.2k on DraftKings, taking him out of our self-ascribed $5,000 value threshold. Chris Hogan, come on down. Hogan only saw 2 targets last week, but that was against a Denver defense that can lock down any offense. The Jets secondary leaves the door and the window open. Hogan has big play potential and should have a good chance at his upside ceiling in this matchup.
Tight End – below $4,000
Cameron Brate – TB at NO – $3,900
The tight end position leave a little bit to be desired on the main slate of games on Saturday. Cameron Brate presents your best sub-4k upside play of the day with a matchup with New Orleans. Brate has seen 27 targets over the past four weeks. New Orleans sits 25th against the tight end position in DVOA and this game has one of the highest totals of the day. As teams continue to double, and even triple, team Mike Evans, Brate should be the beneficiary.
Ryan Griffin – HOU vs CIN – $3,300
With a new quarterback in place, Griffin should be fine as a check down target. While evidence shows there isn’t a ton of correlation in increased targets for tight ends and rookie or new quarterbacks, Griffin did see eight targets last week and hauled all of them in. He has some touchdown upside against the Bengals.
Defense/Special Teams – below $3,400
Browns – CLE vs SD – $2,200
To be up front, the Cleveland Browns defense has scored double digit fantasy points just one this season. The positives: This game sits at a 43.5 over/under with the Browns only a plus-4.5 underdog. The San Diego Chargers turn the ball over more than anyone on the season. The negatives: Well, it’s still the Cleveland Browns. If you are in search of savings this week, the upside is there for the Browns to give you just enough to get by.