Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol

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Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond

Here are some quick tips to help with your picks this week.

Quick Tips

  • NASCAR changed the splitter rule in early July, and the JGR Toyotas have been dominant ever since. I hate using the word dominant in NASCAR, so that should tell you how dominant they have been.
  • Richmond was a punt race before Almirola was mispriced.
  • Best practice rank is a good indicator of average running position. Top 10 long run speeds correlate with top 10 DFS scores.

Dig into the statistics and find the best plays for this weekend’s NASCAR event with the Daily Fantasy NASCAR Spreadsheet: click here

 

Top Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (plus $9,000)

The Daily Fantasy NASCAR circuit closes out the regular season at short track. There will be 400 laps this weekend. We could see four drivers split up the hog points (fast laps and laps led points).

Martin Truex, Jr. is the best driver in the best car. Fading Truex doesn’t work often. In the spring race, Truex spent all of stage #1 in second place. He couldn’t runt down Kenseth, and never led a lap. Truex acknowledged that his team struggled with the Richmond day race setup, but they have excelled in the night race setup. He scored the most fantasy points in the last Richmond night race, but that’s only time that has happened for Truex. It would be nice to see a historical trend, but Truex’s stats in a superfast Toyota only go back to 2016. Truex has short run speed and he was the fastest on the long run in practice #2.

Matt Kenseth’s long run speed is a concern. I have gone back and forth about Kenseth. He has short run speed. He has clean air. He’s good at this track. In the past, we’ve seen cars with exceptional short run speed make up for poor long run speed. Kenseth was terrific in the spring race. In the middle of stage 2, the track rubbered up, and he was passed after leading the first 160 laps. A flat tire and a penalty sabotaged his day. If that were a night race, the track doesn’t rubber up that way, and Kenseth may have never been passed. Another thing about Kenseth losing the lead, stage #2 was caution free. That’s rare. Clean air, the premium pit stall, and the need for a win add up to more than long run speed. In the 2015 night race, Kenseth almost scored 200 fantasy points.

Brad Keselowski is good at Richmond. It’s a rhythm track. In the spring race, Keselowski did not look good in practice, but he smoked the competition during the race. It is likely that the Penske cars were cheating during that race (Logano failed post race inspection). Since Richmond, the Penske car have been noticeably slower, or the JGR cars have been elite. Either way, it looks like Pensek needs to go back to cheating. NASCAR didn’t catch Keselowski the first time, so why not roll that car out again. BK won the Xfinity race on Friday night and then performed and odd burnout. That was not a celebration. This is what drivers do when they know that their car won’t pass the post race inspection. If he cheated last night, why won’t he cheat in the Cup race? Hamlin won both races by cheating last week. From the 15th starting position, you don’t need BK to lead laps. In the September 2016 Richmond night race. Keselowski scored the third most fantasy points without leading a lap. He drove from 17th to 4th and picked up 10 fast lap points along the way.

 

Middle Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($7,000-$9,000)

Ryan Newman has raced at Richmond 31 times. He has 28 top 20s. That makes him safe and popular, but his poor qualifying run will likely multiply his ownership. Newman is starting 27th because all of the RCR cars are lacking short run speed, but they believe their long run speed is fine. The confidence is supported by his recent results (three consecutive top 10 finishes). There is upside, too. Newman has 17 top 10s at Richmond. Finally, his salary is wrong. Last week, Newman was priced above $8,000 for the maybe the first time ever, so no one rostered him. The DraftKings algorithm dropped his salary, but it fell too far. He’ll be over $8,000 again next week, and no one will roster him. You can figure out where this is going.

Austin Dillon doesn’t have the bulletproof track history of Ryan Newman. His Richmond history doesn’t look that great. In the last 6 Richmond races, he has a 13th place finish, three 20th place finishes, and two 27th place finishes. That’s okay for cash games because he’s starting 31st. It’s possible that those Richmond races will shake some players off of Dillon. That could be a mistake. A closer look at those Richmond races, and Dillon’s average running position was inside the top 20 for all but one of those races. Dillon finished 4th last week, and it appears he’s getting ready for the playoffs.

 

Value Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($6,000-$7,000)

We’re looking for place differential and finishing position.

Ty Dillon always finishes around 20th. He’s finished 22nd or better in 19 of the 25 races this season. A 22nd place finish is 32 points. That’s his floor. Ty is safe in cash games. Typically, he’s not a great GPP play because he lacks upside. His average finish in those 19 races in 18th. A strong argument can be made that 40 points from Ty Dillon will work in GPPs. The only concern is that a punt or a driver in the $7,000 tier might have a better point per dollar return. In Ty’s defense, this might be a race where he breaks through his ceiling. Ty looked good in the spring Richmond race. His average running position was 16th. His practice speeds were not great this weekend, but they weren’t good in the spring either. Ty Dillon’s practice speeds are never good.

 

Punt Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (sub $6,000)

Aric Almirola is priced as punt. That’s just his price tag. He’s not a punt. He’s not supposed to start in the 30s. He qualified 23rd. That seems about right for Aric Almirola. He’s earned 3 top 10s in his last 6 races at Richmond. The last time he finished worse than 21st at Richmond was 2012 (his rookie season). The floor is 21st. That’s 25 points from a $5,000 driver. That’s just the floor. A top 10 is possible. In the spring race, Almirola was hit with a pass through penalty in the last quarter of the race and still earned a top 10. With a 10th place finish, Almirola earns 7.5x value. Almirola is going to be a popular guy in all formats.

David Ragan finished 19th and Landon Cassill finished 21st in the spring Richmond race. The teammates posted identical impressive speeds in practice on Friday. The clones are starting 29th and 30th. They started 28th and 30th in the spring.

 

Track Cheat Sheet: Richmond

  • This a 3/4 mile short, flat track. It races like a short track, but about 10 laps into a run, it races more like an intermediate track.

I am a promoter at FanVice and am also a user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of FanVice and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.