Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Axalta Pocono 400
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Now back to the amazing racing content from Pearce
The superfluous fantasy NASCAR intro is dead. It could be resurrected. If my picks washout, then I’ll need to camouflage them with racing accouterments. Fancy racing words and SEO tags will litter these articles with DFS jargon. Let’s hope I get the picks right.
Dig into the statistics and find the best plays for this weekend’s NASCAR event with the Daily Fantasy NASCAR Spreadsheet:
Top Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (plus $9,000)
The Daily Fantasy NASCAR circuit gets weird this week. There will be 160 laps on Sunday afternoon. That’s not a lot of hog points. Bump up place differential in your algorithm.
Brad Keselowski has been the best at Pocono in recent memory. His car is fast enough and his starting position puts him within striking distance. Pocono is a pit strategy race. Throw in the new stages, and this is Pocono on steroids. The best driver and the best car are plusses, but they’re not deciding factors this week. It’s all about making the right pit calls, and getting the car up front at the end. BK has finished 3rd or better in each of the last three Pocono races.
Chase Elliott can race anywhere, but he’s been the best at the long tracks (Fontana, Michigan, and Pocono). He almost won at each of these tracks last season. They didn’t have the car on Friday, but they fixed it on Saturday, Elliott was 4th in practice. Pocono favors place differential points, and Elliott is starting 26th.
Kyle Larson is reckless, but that’s the other way to win at Pocono. Pit strategy is the popular way to win a race at Pocono. The other way to win is by making passes that others can’t or won’t make on restarts. If you’ve watched any NASCAR this season, then you know Larson is a wild man on the first three laps of a restart. He’s been successful at Pocono going back to his first race at the Triangle in the ARCA series. That was just a warmup race to familiarize himself with downshifting in turn 1. He won that race.
Middle Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($7,000-$9,000)
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is very chalky, but I always make chalky plays. If you want deviation picks, then check out my lineup build videos. Junior’s numbers at Pocono are as good they get. His patient driving style pays off in a race that drivers have to let come to them. Junior fits perfectly into lineups with 3 top tier drivers, a punt, and a value pick.
Kasey Kahne and the Hendrick cars did not have a good Friday at Pocono. On Saturday, the whole crew was top 10. As mentioned in this week’s podcast, it appears Kahne will not be with Hendrick Motorsports next year. The remainder of this season will be an audition. He desperately needs a win to grab a sponsor and a spot with a quality team. Pocono can be that race. It will be tough starting 26th, but it’s not impossible. He was 9th fastest in practice #2. If Kahne plays the right strategy, he could be up front at the end. Be careful. His gamble could have the opposite result. The 5 car could run out of gas and finish 25th.
Value Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($6,000-$7,000)
We’re looking for place differential and finishing position. If we can get them both, then awesome. Sometimes it’s foolish to chase both.
A.J. Allmendinger has done it before. He’s fast enough to hang around, and squeeze his way up the leaderboard at the very end. He has a top 10 DFS score in 2 of the last 3 Pocono races. He finished 17th in scoring in the fog shortened race last fall because he started 14th and finished 13th (that was his average running position as well). If he finishes 13th this weekend, then he’ll score 39 points and he will be very close to a top 10 DFS score.
Punt Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (sub $6,000)
David Ragan and Landon Cassill drive for Front Row Motorsports. Sure, that team lucked their way into a win at Pocono last year. Don’t expect a win, but a top 25 finish is highly likely based on Front Row’s past Pocono finishes.
Track Cheat Sheet: Pocono
- It’s not not a short track, intermediate track, or a plate track. It’s Pocono, the Tricky Triangle. There are three flat banked turns and two long straight stretches. The track is 2.5 miles long. It’s hard to pass, and it’s hard to get lapped, but not impossible.
I am a promoter at FanVice and am also a user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of FanVice and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.