Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks: TOYOTA OWNERS 400 at Richmond
We can just focus on drivers this week. In the last two races, the biggest questions were about the track (Texas and Bristol). Richmond is the same Richmond with one minor change: the high groove is working. This isn’t new, the high groove has become en vogue over the last two years.
Dig into the statistics and find the best plays for this weekend’s NASCAR event with the Daily Fantasy NASCAR Spreadsheet: click here
Top Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (plus $9,000)
The Daily Fantasy NASCAR circuit is at a short track, again. There will be 400 laps on Sunday, you will absolutely need the two to four drivers that hog the laps led and fast lap points. These hogs do not come cheap.
Denny Hamlin looked good and sounded confident in practice. When a driver says their car is “pretty close,” take heed. You know what’s funny? Take heed means to pay attention or to be cautious. This should be a popular phrase in daily fantasy NASCAR. Hamlin is starting 16th, but during practice, the other drivers and the broadcasters explained that only Hamlin was entering the turn and hugging the yellow line in the apex. It’s pushing it to ask for hog points from a driver starting in the teens, but Hamlin was fast in every practice (top 10 on short runs and long runs), he’s finished 6th or better in his last three Richmond races (his hometown track), and he’s been very strong at short tracks this season and throughout his career.
Kyle Busch has been fast at short tracks tracks this year. It hasn’t worked out for him, but that should drive down his ownership. Busch is the Vegas favorite to win. He looks just as good as ever, the JGR Toyotas are the class of the field this weekend, and he has top 10 finishes in 11 of his last 15 Richmond races. He led 78 laps last spring and was one turn away from a win. You know that old hockey betting strategy? Bet a team every night on a three game road trip and double down until they win because they will always be the moneyline dog. Bristol didn’t work, double down on Busch at Richmond.
Middle Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($7,000-$9,000)
Austin Dillon is starting dead last. I’m not going to spend much time writing this up. In the last practice Dillon was the 4th fastest on a 30 lap run. His average running position at Richmond is 19th. We’ll be glad to have that this weekend.
Erik Jones and the rest of the Toyota gang were fast in practice. Jones may have been the fastest. At his elevated price tag, his ownership will drop in GPPs. If Jones can finish where he runs, he’ll finish with a top 10 DFS score starting 20th.
Matt Kenseth did not forget how to race. His car did not transform into a pumpkin. He’s simply had bad luck this year. The JGR Toyotas have been a step behind the rest, as well. This weekend, the Toyotas are leading the way and Kenseth will lead the field from the pole with a sub $9K price tag. Kenseth was fast in practice, he has the track history, but more importantly, he’s starting up front and that’s where the hog points (fast lap points and laps led points) come from every week.
Value Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($6,000-$7,000)
We’re looking for place differential and finishing position. If we can get them both, then awesome. Sometimes it’s foolish to chase both.
Trevor Bayne is having the best season of his career. He had top 20 speed in all practices, but the real numbers to focus on are the practice #3 speeds. This practice was the closest to race conditions and Bayne ran the 15th fastest 10 lap average. Bayne’s average running positions were 13th and 16th at Richmond last season. A very conservative estimate puts Bayne at 20th. That’s 33 points, a top 15 fantasy score, and 5x value.
Punt Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (sub $6,000)
Corey Lajoie finished 28th at Martinsville and 24th at Bristol. He’s looked better over his last 4 races. It’s probably because he’s realized that he doesn’t have a top 20 car. Turn circles and try to bring it home inside the top 30, and you might earn a top 25. It’s purely a savings plays, and you must hit with your big money picks. Lajoie will likely only return 4x-5x value.
Track Cheat Sheet: Bristol
- This is a 3/4 mile long, flat track.
- The spring race is a day race (less grip) and the fall race is a night race (more grip). Be careful comparing stats.
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