Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks: The Advance Auto Parts Clash at Daytona

The highway is congested, but that doesn’t affect your speed. You’re pushing it in the passing lane, then you get stuck behind a slower car. You’re running somewhere in the 70s, but not as fast as you want. The bumper of your car is almost locked onto the car in front of you. Sometimes in the midst of your road rage there is a moment of clarity. This is stupid. If the car in front of you suddenly slows – you die, and probably some other people die, too. This is stupid (some people don’t experience this moment, but they’re not reading this because they’re dead).

That’s Daytona. Running on someone’s bumper while someone runs on your bumper and someone is on there’s, and so on. This is stupid. It’s dangerous. It’s not supposed to be this way.

The draft at Daytona has been around for over 30 years, so we accept that this is the way it has always been. In fact, this is a side effect of NASCAR attempting to make Daytona safer. If this is the side effect, then I’d hate to know the disease.

How do you make picks this week? A lot of cars wreck at restrictor plate tracks. Disaster can strike for anyone. The Grim Reaper is more picky. The Clash is worse than a typical Daytona races. The winner gets around $200k. Second place receives half of that. Third place pays less than $50k. This week’s GPP winner might make more money than an actual driver! How do you think the drivers approach this race? Yeah, it’s the Ricky Bobby “if you’re not first, you’re last” mentality.

In an all-or-nothing race, how do you know who will wreck? You don’t. Let me repeat that. You don’t. It’s hard to predict wrecks at regular tracks. If you can predict wrecks at the Daytona Clash, then you should take your clairvoyance and use it for more useful means, like predicting the next M&M color (Ed. Note: that would be a cool party trick).

The good guys at FanVice have decided that DFS NASCAR is one sport that is hard enough to predict and they want to give everyone as many opportunities to make a little extra cash in order to get a leg up on the competition. So this will be a free article series this season and no offense but let’s be honest, it’s NASCAR. Look at the spreadsheet. Look at the free picks. Make some educated plays. This isn’t NFL, NBA, NFL or NHL. We only have 40 drivers and most of the stats in older generation cars are useless. You can do it on your own with a little bit of free assistance.

For additional information, please dig into the statistics provided which can go a long way in helping to find the best plays for this weekend’s NASCAR event with the Fantasy NASCAR Spreadsheet (lite):

 

Top Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (plus $9,000)

Brad Keselowski is a master when it comes to blocking the two drafting lanes from the lead position at Daytona. He led the second most laps last year until the very end when Carl Edwards took him out. No one is safe at The Clash. That being said, BK still finished 12th in DFS points. Up front isn’t 100% safe, but it’s safer and you’ll get lead lap points. You’ll need lead lap points, if you want to win the $15,000 at DraftKings this weekend.

Matt Kenseth is starting 15th. Here are his last 5 clash scores: 33, 66, 40, 53, and 25 pts. It’s a good, experienced car starting in the back.

Joey Logano’s last four Clash finishes are 2nd, 6th, 4th, and 3rd. He’s won 3 of last 8 official plate track races (most in NASCAR). He’s starting 9th and he looked good running with his teammate, Keselowski, in practice.

 

Middle Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($7,000-$9,000)

Denny Hamlin is your man, if you’re fading Brad Keselowski. Hamlin has won 2 of the last 4 Clash races. The JGR Toyotas have won 4 of the last 5 Clash races. Hamlin is pretty good at plate tracks as well. He has 8 top 10 finishes in the last 12 offical plate races. He gets it.

Kyle Busch is starting 13th out of 17 cars. During practice, Darrell Waltrip explained this race by saying, “It’s all for the glory.” Jeff Gordon responded by saying, “You’d think there’s a million dollars on the line the way they get after it.” Who races like that? Rowdy Busch. By the way, Busch is coming off of his best season at the plate tracks with finishes of 11th, 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd.

Kyle Larson is a rising 4th year Monster Energy Cup Series driver. He struggled at times during his first two seasons, but he also displayed signs of brilliance. In his third year, Larson showed remarkable growth. He won a race, and almost advanced to the second round of the playoffs. In previous years, the driver struggled at restrictor plate tracks. However, with proper interventions and aids, the driver secured 3 top 10s at restrictor plate tracks in his 4th year. It is our recommendation that the driver is to be trusted as DFS NASCAR pick at plate tracks in 2017. (that’s for my friends in education)

 

Value Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($5,000-$7,000)

Chris Buescher is guaranteed 27 points. He can’t score any less. In fact, he’ll probably grab a couple of random fast lap points. He can wreck on lap 1 and still finish 17th. Almost half of the field wrecks at the Clash. That means they will all score negative place differential points. Over the last 5 years, the driver starting last has a median score of 38.5 points. That a top 10 DFS score.

Daniel Suarez is in the same situation as Buescher with a small exception. His car is a tad bit better and he has teammates that will block for him and push him. That is, until the last lap, but if Suarez is still running on the last lap after starting from 16th, then you’re good.

 

Track Cheat Sheet: Daytona

  • This is an exhibition race. It does not affect the season standings. Drivers want to win because winning is cool and stuff. They also want to win money. They will be reckless.
  • Daytona is one of the two restrictor plate tracks. What’s a restrictor plate? A piece of metal with four holes that is sandwiched between the carburetor and the engine. It limits the amount of air that can mix with the fuel. This means less speed. More importantly, less speed for everyone. The stock cars can not pull away from each other. However, when they run together down the long straightaways and high banked turns, they’re able to tuck under the car in front of them. The car in the front absorbs the friction of a wall of air molecules. The trailing cars cruise through empty space. By doing so, the trailing cars easily top the 200 mph mark and push the lead car.
  • It’s Daytona. It’s crazy. It’s Saturday night. Enjoy yourself. Sorry, I picked half of the field.

I am a promoter at FanVice and am also a user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of FanVice and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.