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Fresh pavement at night does not make for good racing. No problem, NASCAR can fix this easily: throw the caution flag and get some crazy restarts. The restarts will be fun, but everything else will be lap turning. Unless the combination of the tire dragon and running the Xfinity race Saturday afternoon creates multiple racing grooves. For once, I’m optimistic that this will happen. If it does, there will be battling in the turns and a bunch of wrecks, so a bunch of restarts. One way or another, we’re getting 10 restarts.
Dig into the statistics and find the best plays for this weekend’s NASCAR event with the Daily Fantasy NASCAR Spreadsheet: click here
Top Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (plus $9,000)
The Daily Fantasy NASCAR circuit is back an intermediate track for the first time in over a month. There will be 267 laps this weekend. Hog points matter, again.
Martin Truex, Jr. doesn’t need a write up. He’s been the man for the last two years. He’s been a god at the intermediate tracks. The last intermediate track race was Charlotte. It was at night. Truex scored the most fantasy points. Same story at Kansas. Last year at Kentucky, Truex scored 77 fantasy points (2nd). He should have been north of 90 points, but NASCAR tagged him with a questionable penalty. He’s starting on the front row and he had top 5 practice speeds. Those two data points correlate with hog points (fast lap and laps led).
Kyle Larson did not make it through inspection, again. He’ll start in the back. Good luck fading him. At Texas (a repaved track), he drove from 32nd to 2nd. He was the 3rd fastest in practice #1. In practice #2, he was the fastest on the short run and the long run. Kentucky Speedway has decided to run the tire dragon and create racing grooves on the bottom and the middle. This means eventually the high line will come in, and we all know who loves running up against the wall. Larson has wrecked in every one of his races at Kentucky, but we’re seeing a different Kyle Larson this season.
Kyle Busch might be the best driver at Kentucky. Brad Keselowski might have something to say about that, but he’s starting 10th and Rowdy is on the pole. The front row has been absolute money at the ovals this season. The last 1.5 mile track race should have been won by Kyle Busch. Remember the interview about not being surprised when he finished 2nd and scored 49 hog points? I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kyle Busch score over 80 points at Kentucky. There’s an extra boost for Rowdy this week, Adam Stevens (18 car crew chief) is back after a 4 race suspension.
Middle Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($7,000-$9,000)
Austin Dillon is starting 25th. He started 22nd in the last intermediate track race, and won. That was a fuel mileage win. Last year, Brad Keselowski won at Kentucky by stretching his fuel. If NASCAR decides to throw a bunch of cautions, then fuel mileage won’t matter, but it will create late race restarts. All Dillon has to do is hang around the lead lap, not wreck, and grab a couple spots at the end.
Ryan Newman had to change engines in practice. That meant he would have to start from the back regardless of his qualifying lap. He knew that, so his qualifying lap was a Sunday cruise. He’ll start 29th. Newman is not a 29th place car. At Michigan and Charlotte, Newman earned top 15 finishes. In the 6 Kentucky races, Newman has 3 top 5s.
Ricky Stenhouse is having the best season of his career. Las Vegas wasn’t a good week. He had trouble in practice, started in the back, roared into the top 20, then wrecked. The other five intermediate ovals have all been top 15s for Stenhouse. His practice speeds say that he’s an 11th place car. With an 11th place finish, Stenhouse scores 40 points and is around a top 10 DFS score.
Value Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($6,000-$7,000)
We’re looking for place differential and finishing position. If we can get them both, then awesome. Sometimes it’s foolish to chase both.
Ty Dillon has 11 finishes of 22nd or better at non-plate oval tracks. His 27th place starting position isn’t as deep as he was at Michigan, but it’s deep enough. Ty has a lot of experience at this track in the Trucks and the Xfinity series. At Texas (new repave), Ty finished 17th. He knows what he’s doing: be safe and hang around for most of the race, then at the end, try to finish 15th to 20th.
Punt Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (sub $6,000)
Landon Cassill has a top 30 at every intermediate track race this season. He has a top 30 in 4 of his 6 Kentucky races. A 30th place finish is only 19 points, but he provides the salary relief necessary to roster Kyle Larson and 3 other top tier drivers.
David Ragan has a top 30 at every 1.5 mile track race this season. If there was an award for best underfunded, small team driver, then Ragan would win easily. He was 20th quickest in practice #2. The 26th place starting position will scare some away and it should. There is more risk with Ragan than there is with his Front Row Motorsports teammate, Landon Cassill. In GPPs, Ragan is the play. His ownership should be low, but he has upside. In the last two Kentucky races, he’s finished 22nd and 18th. If Ragan finshes 22nd, that’s 26 points, almost 5x, and salary relief.
Track Cheat Sheet: Kentucky
- This is an intermediate track at night with a freshly paved track. Passing isn’t happening other than on restarts. The only way the leader is passed is on restart (very tough to accomplish because the leader gets to pick the preferred groove) or through pit strategy. This is subject to change. We have never seen the combination of a tire dragon and two races on a track all on the same day.
I am a promoter at FanVice and am also a user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of FanVice and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.