Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Overton’s 301 at New Hampshire
The opening is usually filler or a rant, and this is the week to go on daily fantasy NASCAR rant. I’ll take the high road, and skip to the picks.
Dig into the statistics and find the best plays for this weekend’s NASCAR event with the Daily Fantasy NASCAR Spreadsheet
Top Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (plus $9,000)
This the fourth different track this month. There will be 301 laps this weekend. Hog points matter, again.
Martin Truex, Jr. is on the pole, check. He was top 5 in practice, check. He finished with a top 3 DFS score in both 2016 New Hampshire races, check. What’s left to say? I can ramble about his practice speeds being really good.
Kyle Larson won the pole, but it was taken away from him. He’ll start and be scored from last for the bazillionth time this year. It’s starting to feel like a racing video game when you are too lazy to run a qualifying lap, and just decide to start in the back. Larson missed half of the final practice and was pretty upset with his car. He was only the 9th fastest on the long run, but his team will figure it out, or they’ll just cheat again. He doesn’t have to win or lead laps. He’s fastest enough to run fast laps, but that doesn’t matter. If Larson finishes 10th, then that’s 34 finishing position points and 29 place differential points.
Kyle Busch rounds out the same top tier picks that I make every week. You can complain about it being chalky and obvious. Hey, I said the same exact thing last week when someone accused me of giving away all of the daily fantasy NASCAR secrets. Kyle Busch is great at New Hampshire. Throw out the 37th place finish in the fall 2015 race, and his average finish is 4th over the last 7 races. He was top 5 in practice. Best of all, Rowdy has ripped up the short, flat tracks this season (103 points at Phoenix and 164 points at Martinsville).
Middle Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($7,000-$9,000)
Ryan Newman won at Phoenix and finished 8th at Martinsville. He had a fast car in practice at Martinsville, but his best speed at Phoneix was 15th. He’ll need to implement that same short, flat track strategy again this week. Last fall at New Hampshire, Newman wasn’t fast in practice, but his average running position was 11th. In the spring 2016 New Hampshire race, he wasn’t fast in race trim, ran around 20th during the race, then snuck away with a 7th place finish. Same thing in the fall 2015 race. His best single lap run ranked 16th, and that’s about where he raced. Wouldn’t you know it, he walked away with a 10th place finish. Another thing that Newman has going for him, is that he’s considered the hardest driver to pass in NASCAR. Combine that with the fact that it’s nearly impossible to pass at New Hampshire, and Newman should be on the lead lap at the end and in position sneak away with a top 10 finish.
Daniel Suarez finished 5th at New Hampshire in his rookie Xfinity season (behind Hamlin, Austin Dillon, Keselowski, and Kyle Busch). In 2016, he finished 4th (behind Kyle Busch, Erik Jones, and Keselowski). In the final practice (closest to racing conditions), he was the 7th fastest on the short run and the 6th fastest on a 10 lap run. Carl Edwards won 3 of the last 4 poles with the #19 car. They’ve got the setup down. In his first short, flat track race at the Cup level, Suarez ran around 19th for most of the race, but skipped a pit stop at the end and finished 7th. That’s the gameplan this weekend. GPPs only.
Value Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($6,000-$7,000)
We’re looking for place differential and finishing position. If we can get them both, then awesome. Sometimes it’s foolish to chase both.
Danica Patrick has two wrecks at New Hampshire and in the other 6 races her average finish is 21st. If she finishes 21st, and that’s not far off from her final practice speed (24th on the short run, 20th on the long run), she’ll score 32 fantasy points. It conceivable that she can crack the top 20, but that will come down to late race cautions and restarts. Last July, Danica’s average running position was 23rd at New Hampshire, but she finished 14th and was in the optimal DFS NASCAR lineup.
Paul Menard fits the profile. He’s starting 29th and his speed suggests that he’s a 20th to 25th place car. That’s not very good, but it’s on the edge of good enough. He should be able to hang on to the lead lap and work some magic at the end when the late race restart monster rears its ugly head. In every race with RCR at New Hampshire, Menard has finished 25th or better (12 races).
Punt Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (sub $6,000)
David Ragan wasn’t very good at New Hampshire last year, but he was with BK Racing and the cars weren’t very good. Throughout his career in good cars, bad cars, and okay cars, his average finish at New Hampshire is 27th. We’ll take that (23 fantasy points). Ragan has been one of the best small team drivers this season, and he should earn a top 30. One last thing for my fellow tin foil hat club members, Ragan’s car is sponsored by Overton’s, the same company that is sponsoring the race.
Reed Sorenson is the GPP punt. He provides the salary relief to go after top tier drivers. He’s not good, but the #15 car finishes races. The good thing about being in the back the whole race is that he’s not likely to get into the restart battles for position. Sorenson finished 37th last fall, but only one car wrecked out. In the spring race, he finished 36th, but again, only one car wrecked out. It looks like he’s a bad pick. He can only benefit from cars wrecking out, and the wrecks at this slow short track aren’t that crazy. Cars get back on the track. Here’s where the GPP magic comes in. Last year, there wasn’t a 5 minute repair clock. Last year, NASCAR didn’t lay down VHT on the track to encourage side-by-side racing in the corners, near the wall. It’s a longshot, but in GPPs, he’s worth a flier.
Track Cheat Sheet: New Hampshire
This is a short track. It is a one mile long, paperclip shaped flat track. Imagine a bigger version of Martinsville, and just like Martinsville it’s very hard to pass. To counter this, like they do every week now, NASCAR smothered the track in VHT (sticky stuff that creates multiple racing grooves).
Everywhere other than Bristol (short track), the VHT hasn’t worked. Early reports are that the track has two grooves early in a run, then just one on long runs. That’s basically every track every week. If a driver wants to make a pass, then they have to do it early in a run, or what we like to call – restarts. Expect the weekly dose of restart wrecks indiscriminately ruining daily fantasy NASCAR lineups.
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