Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Camping World 500 at Phoenix
Three hundred and twelve laps. That is 312 times braking for Turn One and rolling the center and then accelerating out Turn Two. It is also 312 times slowing and rolling into Turn Three, then accelerating through the apex, but easing of an rolling into Turn Four, but then as soon as you can, but not too soon, rolling back into the throttle and down a the narrow front stretch. It’s hard enough to type that, let alone do it in an overpowered stock without any down force surrounded by 39 other cars on a one mile track.
By the way, turns one and two are nothing like turns three and four. You can have a good car this weekend, but in the end, it is going to come down to the driver more than what we have seen through the first month of NASCAR racing!
Dig into the statistics and find the best plays for this weekend’s NASCAR event with the Daily Fantasy NASCAR Spreadsheet: click here
Top Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (plus $9,000)
The Daily Fantasy NASCAR circuit will run 324 laps at a one mile short track for the first time this season. There will be a lot of fast lap and laps led points on the line. If you want to win the GPP, then you’ll need to pick the 2-4 drivers that hog these points.
Joey Logano is starting first and is fast; you know the drill. Penske has clearly had the best cars this season and Phoenix is a track they understand intimately. This is especially true of Joey Logano. If not for the fuel man not squeezing enough gas into his engine last Spring, Logano would currently be sitting with a sevne race top 10 streak at Phoenix.
Denny Hamlin will start from the back because he had a hole in his tire. As a result, he failed his inspection after qualifying. Hamlin is one of the best short track drivers in NASCAR. He was phenomenal when at the short tracks last year and has top 10s in the last three Phoenix races. Locks really do not exist in NASCAR because of wrecks, but Hamlin is as close as you get as a sure thing.
Kevin Harvick starting 23rd is another lock. I know, I know, I just said that there are no locks in NASCAR. Last week, Harvick started 19th and seemed to be cruising his way to a top DFS score, then he wrecked his car and his backer’s hopes and dreams of glory. Harvick has started from around this spot and dominated the Phoenix race in the past. Just look at the spreadsheet and revel in the fact that Harvick has over 100 fantasy points in 6 of the last 7 races at Phoenix.
Middle Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($7,000-$9,000)
Matt Kenseth nearly won this race last fall after showing nothing in practice. This go around in practice #2, Kenseth was second fastest on the short run and third fastest on the long run. Kenseth has not been the most dominant driver at Phoenix, but his driver rating has been above 90 over the last five races. With him checking in at a sub $9,000 price, and starting 12th, it will be hard to pass on Kenseth, unless you want to spend up a little more for Jimmie Johnson.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. drives for the 88 car team. I don’t think the DraftKing’s algorithm understands setups and crew chiefs. Alex Bowman took this car to over 100 fantasy points last fall, but the algorithm doesn’t associate separate drivers in the same car. Earnhardt is starting up front, he was fast in practice, and he has a top 5 finish in 5 of the last 7 races at Phoenix.
Value Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($6,000-$7,000)
We’re looking for place differential and finishing position. If we can get them both, then awesome. Sometimes it’s foolish to chase both.
Aric Almirola didn’t look like great pick on paper last week, but it worked out. Here we are again. Almirola is starting in a similar spot with pedestrian practice speeds. In his ten Phoenix races as a full time driver, he has 9 top 20s. He knows what he is doing and we can trust him as much as we can “trust” anyone in this variant heavy sport.
Daniel Suarez hasn’t shown us much, but he is starting deep in the field with a JGR Toyota. Suarez had top 20 speed in practice #2 and #3 on short runs and long runs. This gives him some very solid place differential upside which is very helpful in all formats.
Punt Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (sub $6,000)
Punts are long shots everywhere. At Phoenix,over the last half dozen races, 15 punts have finished with a top 20 Daily Fantasy NASCAR. That checks in at nearly 13% and is something we HAVE to take into consideration.
Track Cheat Sheet: Phoenix
- This is a short track, but almost all of the short tracks are different. Phoenix is flat in the turns like New Hampshire and Martinsville, but the dimensions are unique. It’s the opposite of the typical tri-oval race track because the straight stretch is at start-finish line.
- Sometimes this race is a wreck fest, and sometimes it’s a lap turner. It is a short track with less places to hide and the limited banking in the turns is daring the drivers to push too hard. Err on the side of caution.
I am a promoter at FanVice and am also a user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of FanVice and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.