Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Bad Boy Off Road 300 at New Hampshire (Post Qualifying)
Maybe you have a multiple TV setup, but it’s more likely that you’re flipping back and forth between football and NASCAR. That type of behavior means that you’ve skipped this opening paragraph, and skimmed right to the Daily Fantasy NASCAR picks. If you’re reading this sentence, and you’re not the editor, then add me on Twitter because you seem like a cool guy.
Dig into the statistics and find the best plays for this weekend’s NASCAR event with the Fantasy NASCAR Spreadsheet:
Top Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (plus $9,000)
The Daily Fantasy NASCAR circuit returns to a short track, so the lap total increases to 300 laps this weekend. That’s a significant amount of fast lap and laps led points. If you want to win the GPP, then you’ll need to pick the 2-3 drivers that hog these points. Qualifying position and practice speeds are solid numbers to follow when picking the top tier drivers at New Hampshire.
Kevin Harvick missed the setup in qualifying (his splitter was dragging resulting in a starting position of 19th), but he had an incredibly fast car during practice. His car was p3 in practice #1 and his crew chief is excited about this car (follow his crew chief @RodneyChilders4 for insider info). Harvick dominated this race last fall and this race was his in July, but his weekly pit-road problems prevented another big day.
Martin Truex, Jr.’s lowest score this month is 82 fantasy points. That’s across three unique race tracks. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Truex qualified 2nd and was fast in the first two practices on short runs and the fastest on long runs. Truex led 123 laps in the July New Hampshire race before he suffered a mechanical failure. He enters Loudon with a win and a ticket to the next round, so he’s racing for a wins not top 10s. Since his ticket has already been punched, his car could run on jet fuel and the NASCAR penalty wouldn’t matter.
Matt Kenseth wrecked in the two short track races leading up to New Hampshire. Richmond was crazy and Bristol is always crazy. Kenseth won the two short track races before Bristol. In fact, Kenseth has won 3 of the last 6 New Hampshire races. The JGR Toyotas have been the cream of the crop at the short tracks this season. There speed was on display in practice. Kenseth was 3rd fastest on single lap run and 2nd fastest on 10 lap runs in practice #2.
Middle Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($7,000-$9,000)
Austin Dillon struggled to find speed in practice #1, and he wrecked his car during the search. His team did not have time to prepare the backup car for qualifying, so Dillon will start 29th. Dillon’s average at New Hampshire is 14th and his average finish in 2016 is 15th. A 14th place finish for Dillon is 45 points. In practice #2, Dillon improved. He was 23rd fastest on the single lap run and 15th on the long run (22 cars made long runs). Check the Daily Fantasy NASCAR spreadsheet to analyse his practice #3 speed.
Greg Biffle is not a 32nd place car. In the last two New Hampshire races, Biffle experienced good fortune, but it’s not rare. There are just enough wrecks at New Hampshire. If a driver is inside the top 25, then they’ll finish on the lead lap. From there it’s in Biffle’s hands and the last two times he finished a 20th place car inside the top 5. Biffle posted the 10th fastest single lap run in practice #2 (the Roush cars did not make 10 lap runs in practice #2).
Alex Bowman’s first race in the 88 car was at New Hampshire in July. He meticulously climbed from 20th to 8th over the course of 270 laps, but then he cut a tire and hit the wall with 30 laps left. Bowman scored a top 10 last week and he’s looking to start a streak. In practice #2, he posted the 12th fastest single lap run and the 9th fastest 10 lap run. For comparison, Carl Edwards was the 11th fastest on his long runs.
Value Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($6,000-$7,000)
We’re looking for place differential and finishing position. If we can get them both, then awesome. Sometimes it’s foolish to chase both.
Aric Almirola has finished inside the top 20 in each of the last three short track races this season. He is a top 20 driver at New Hampshire. In 4 of the last 6, his average running position is inside the top 20. In the other two, he wrecked early in a race while running inside the top 15 and had an average running position of 23rd in the other. He hits value with a 20th place finish.
Danica Patrick was not fast in practice. She was not fast in practice in July, but she finished 14th and scored 45 fantasy points (10th best score). She’s fast enough and she’s starting in a position that will allow her to stay on the lead lap. This is her type of track. Theoretically, the heavy braking tracks are the closest to her indy car road course days. At these short, flat tracks the season, Danica has 4 top 20s in 5 races (average finish of 18th).
Punt Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (sub $6,000)
Punts are long shots at New Hampshire. Typically, short tracks are favorable to punt plays, but New Hampshire is on the calm side of the caution spectrum. Cars spread out and they turns laps. Wrecks happen, but they are usually single car wrecks. Only 6 punts have finished with a top 20 Daily Fantasy NASCAR score in the last 6 New Hampshire races (5%). Punts have fared a little better at short tracks in 2016. Given the chaos of other short tracks, it’s not much of a surprise that 16 of 160 top 20 DFS drivers were punt plays (10%).
Landon Cassill’s average finish at short tracks this season is 26th. If he replicates that finish then he’ll score 26 points. That will likely be just outside of the top 20 in fantasy points, but the salary flexibility will allow you to target 3 top tier drivers (2 fast lap and laps led point hogs and 1 place differential guy).
Track Cheat Sheet: New Hampshire
- This is race #2 of the three race opening round of the NASCAR playoffs. If a driver wins a race or finishes the opening round inside the top 12 in points, then they’ll advance to the next round. The heat turns up this week; drivers will be a little more aggressive.
- New Hampshire is a short, flat track (1 mile in length). It is shaped like a paperclip. Drivers are heavy on the the brakes in the turn, they roll through the center, and are heavy on the gas out of the turn down the straightway. They do this twice a lap for 300 laps. There is a rhythm to this track. Some drivers know the cadence of Loudon; others do not.
- This race will see its fair share of cautions. Some will be debris, but the majority will be wrecks. Don’t expect multi-car wrecks that create unexpected top 10s. The wrecks are the single car type (blown tires, hitting walls). We usually see seven cautions or so. The trick to New Hampshire is picking the drivers with the best pit strategy.