Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks: AAA 400 Drive for Autism at Dover

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You don’t want an intro, just picks and research. You’re awfully picky for someone getting free fantasy NASCAR advice. I’m with you. I don’t want to write some stupid blurb about Dover and it’s stupid monster statue, and I don’t want to read one either.

I have been analyzing practice and starting position compulsively this week, and I’ve got a good feeling about Dover. I’m going to attempt to stay within a framework:

 

Inevitably, I will stray from this framework at times, but I will definitely build lineups that dogmatically follow the above rules. I wrote that before qualifying. I’m leaning toward a double punt this week.

Dig into the statistics and find the best plays for this weekend’s NASCAR event with the Daily Fantasy NASCAR Spreadsheet: click here

Top Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (plus $9,000)

The Daily Fantasy NASCAR circuit will make its fifth run at a short track this season. There will be 400 laps on Sunday afternoon, and you will absolutely need the two to three drivers that hog the laps led and fast lap points. These hogs do not come cheap.

Kyle Busch is starting from the pole, and he was fast in practice. According to the drivers, the final practice was the money practice (sun soaked track and full of rubber from a.m. practice and qualifying). Busch was 3rd on the short run and 2nd on the 10 lap run. Admittedly, there is some fear in rostering Busch or JGR, but their struggles have been over exaggerated by media members that have to pump out weekly blurbs about the same drivers at the same tracks. Busch scored the second most fantasy points at Charlotte, the 3rd most the week before that at Kansas. He was a contender at Richmond, but his day was ruined by a dubious commitment cone violation. He was fast at Bristol before cutting a tire. He’s been fast for awhile.

Martin Truex, Jr. is Martin Truex, Jr. He just barely missed winning the pole. If he won the pole, then most player would consider him a lock, but he’s second. Now, players will scrutinize this pick and question it (e.g. average long run practice speeds). That’s silly. He’s fast. Do you know how many poles Truex has won this year? Zero. Do you know how many races he’s finished with a top 2 DFS score? Five times in 10 non-plate races. He was fast in practice, has great track history, and this is his home track.

Kyle Larson loves the concrete tracks. He was fast in practice and he will be rolling off inside the top 5. Don’t worry about last week. Larson admitted he made some stupid mistakes that cost him. He may not be perfect this week, but he’ll be fast, and he’ll score points. Personally, I’m throwing out the last two races. They’re night races at intermediate tracks. That’s maximum grip and one preferred line. A sun drenched Dover will be slick and the preferred groove will be all over the place. This is setting up to be a repeat of Bristol, and Larson scored the most points at Bristol.

Jimmie Johnson spent practice time getting on and off pit road. That’s confidence. When you have 10 wins at a track, you probably don’t need much practice. It makes you wonder if Babe Ruth ever took BP. Johnson did his usual thing of sucking in qualifying. The first thought that enters your mind is, “I want the 10k drivers that will score hog points (fast laps and laps led points) from up front.” Don’t worry, Johnson will be up front. He’ll score fast laps (nothing but top 5 speeds in practice 2 and 3 – those are the race trim practices), and he’ll score place differential points. The question isn’t whether Johnson will score points, it’s how do you build a lineup with Johnson and the lap leaders? Punts.

 

Middle Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($7,000-$9,000)

Jamie McMurray looks like a great cash play. He’s an interesting GPP play as well. He qualified 19th, but looked like a top 10 car in practice. The problem in GPPs is his price tag. It’s hard to fit him into your lineup with other hogs or a Logano or Johnson. This means his ownership will be low. If he finishes with a top 5, he will be close to a top 5 on the DFS scoreboard with 53-60 fantasy NASCAR points and he will be one of the best point per dollar plays. That’s a stretch, but not a giant leap. McMurray always has a solid floor, but this is the rare week where he has upside.

 

Value Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($6,000-$7,000)

We’re looking for place differential and finishing position. If we can get them both, then awesome. Sometimes it’s foolish to chase both.

I’m fading this tier. Let’s say Chris Buescher finishes 18th (his ceiling), he returns 5.9x. Regan Smith finshes 20th, and that’s 5.6x I’d rather go down to the 5k or even 4k range. I would gladly take 4x and the extra $1,000 or more of salary to help squeeze in another hog or expensive place differential driver.

 

Punt Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (sub $6,000)

David Ragan does not provide the extreme savings of a 4k driver, but he’s a lot better than a 4k driver (he’s better than a 5k driver, too). Ragan has a top 25 finish in each of his last 4 races. He has 8 top 30s in the 10 non-plate races this season. You’re looking at the most popular punt this weekend. You’re looking at very popular pick period. A 25th place finish is 27 points, 5x, and salary relief.

Danica Patrick has not raced well this season, and she didn’t look good in practice, but when she’s less than 6k, then you have to consider her, especially when she starts 31st. If she doesn’t wreck (has it really come to this?), then she’s at the least a 25th place car. She has a top 25 in 5 of the last 6 Dover races.

Cole Whitt has great track history, but he is too expensive. He needs to finish 22nd to return 6x, and he limits your roster options.

Ryan Sieg is dirt cheap. It’s his first Cup race, but 4,300 is a little low. He’s driving the BK Racing 83 car this weekend. This car finished 24th at Bristol and 28th at Martinsville. If he can stay out of trouble, and not be a car that wrecks, then 29th is possible. With the so many expensive drivers in great spots, 20 points from Sieg is great.

Ross Chastain is making his Cup debut in the Premium Motorsports 15 car. Sorenson finished 28th at Bristol and 25th at Kansas. This car may have enough to move forward, but it’s all about not wrecking. We’ll take a 30th from Chastain. What do we need for this to happen? He has to out race Earnhardt, Ware, Gaulding, and Hill (easy enough), and hope some cars DNF.

Track Cheat Sheet: Dover

  • It’s a short track, one mile in length and highly banked in the turns. It’s a bigger Bristol. The straight aways can be claustrophobic, but it’s not as cramped or chaotic as Bristol.
  • All short tracks are not the same, but they are. Watch my YouTube video on this topic, then argue with me. Most DFS NASCAR players will tell you that current form is the most accurate statistic for predictions. If you’re looking at current form, then you’re going to throw out the plate tracks. That leaves you with intermediate tracks and short tracks. Which of the two best relate to Dover? It’s the short tracks (Bristol is the closest in track setup).

I am a promoter at FanVice and am also a user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of FanVice and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.