Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks: GO BOWLING 400 at Kansas
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Now back to the amazing racing content from Pearce!
Let’s try an experiment. What if we ignore practice? Brad Keselowski is great at Richmond, but he looked mediocre in practice. He scored the most fantasy points at Richmond, and was egregiously faded because of practice. This week, I’m fading practice. Partially because I will be at a music festival in Atlanta this weekend and won’t be able to watch practice, but this is as good of a weekend as any to bust out the beakers. It’s not being lazy or too busy; this is something that we’ve always talked about – does practice matter? Would DFS NASCAR players be more successful focusing only on current form and track history? This week, we find out the answer!!! Actually, we would probably have to do this a bunch of times to get a real scientific result, and I know people would get mad if I did that, so we’ll do it once and see what happens.
Dig into the statistics and find the best plays for this weekend’s NASCAR event with the Daily Fantasy NASCAR Spreadsheet:
Top Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (plus $9,000)
The Daily Fantasy NASCAR circuit will make its fourth run at an intermediate track this season. There will be 267 laps on Saturday night, you will absolutely need the two to three drivers that hog the laps led and fast lap points. These hogs do not come cheap.
First problem. I should use qualifying position, but if I look at qualifying, then I’m going to look at practice. The only way to honestly carry out this experiment is to ignore qualifying.
Kyle Larson has been amazing, and some people will fade him because he hasn’t finished 2nd in every race over the last month. Talladega is Talladega. At Richmond, Larson gambled by not taking tires and lost 10 spots on the last restart. At Martinsville, he qualified on the pole, but his crew chief bluntly stated that they didn’t have the car that day. The rest of his races have been exceptional performances. He’s on a tear, and it will continue. The Kansas track surface has aged enough, that the high groove is in play, and Larson lives on the wall. Also, Kansas has progressive banking, so give even more of an edge to the drivers running near the wall. Finally, practice is during the day, the race will be at night. That’s a world of difference. Setting your car up to be fast on a hot, slick track around the bottom may amount to nothing once the green flag drops.
The Front Row is where hog points (fast laps and laps led points) come from. It’s not fast practice laps, it’s not track history, and the stork doesn’t drop them off. Let’s look at the first three intermediate track races. Kevin Harvick won the pole in the Atlanta race, and he scored 102.5 hog points. That’s 4 times the driver with the second most hog points. In the Las Vegas race, Truex and Keselowski started on the front row. They combined to score 123.25 hog points. The third race was at Texas. Harvick’s 30 hog points were disappointing (not bad by any means), but also on the front row was Ryan Blaney. He scored 62.5 hog points. Pick a driver on the front row. Pick them both.
Middle Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($7,000-$9,000)
Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Kurt Busch are priced similarly. Arguments can be made for or against all of these drivers. It’s best to make a decision, today. On Friday, the best driver will not become the most owned of the lot. It will be the driver starting the furthest back. It makes sense, if you have similar batters and one is in Coor’s Field, then you accept the external factors and select the batter at Coor’s Field. What if they’re not equal? What if you glanced over their stats, considered them equal to save time, and let Coors be the deciding factor? It might work out, and maybe one of these drivers starts near the back. I’ll take a mediocre, overpriced bat against a gas can in Coor’s Field. In terms of current from, Junior and Busch are tied. In terms of track history, Kenseth and Busch are tied (each have a top 10 average running position in 3 of the last 4 at Kansas). That means Kurt wins, no so fast. Kenseth has been extremely good at Kansas. He’s led over 100 laps in 2 of the last 3, and he’s been really good at Kansas throughout his entire career. He finishes inside the top 10 at Kansas 64% of the time (2nd best behind Jimmie Johnson).
Trevor Bayne and Ricky Stenhouse have nearly identical stats. Stenhouse has a little more upside (4 top 10s not counting plate races), but historically, Stenhouse is more likely to wreck. This weekend, the high groove will be in play, and Stenhouse likes to run the wall or run into the wall. He’s more likely to earn a top 5 or wreck than Bayne. If you look at their current form and their recent runs at Kansas, it’s all top 20s and top 10s. From the 7K range, 35 points will do. You’ll need a little bit more for GPPs, but depending on qualifying, it’s possible that these drivers score the mid-40s.
Value Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($6,000-$7,000)
We’re looking for place differential and finishing position. If we can get them both, then awesome. Sometimes it’s foolish to chase both.
A.J. Allmendinger has good track history. Typically, I lean more towards current form, and Allmendinger’s current form is less than desirable. However, Allmendinger’s price and track history make him an appealing pick. His 4 top 15s in the last 5 Kansas races are better than his average running position in those races, but you have to give yourself a chance throughout the race to steal spots at the end of the race. Allmendinger is more than capable of staying on the lead lap and benefiting at the end. In a May 2017 paddocktalk.com article, Allmendinger seemed confident at this track and explained that the team had good setups at Kansas in the past. Even if Allmendinger qualifies near 10th, finishing position points alone, will lead to a top 15 DFS score and one of the best point per dollar plays.
Punt Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (sub $6,000)
Landon Cassill is not priced correctly. It’s hard to pick a punt without looking at qualifying, but this price is too low. If he hits 25 points, he will hit 5x value and give DFS players ample salary flexibility. If Cassill starts 30th or worse, then he’s an auto play. If he’s between 25th and 30th, he’s still as close to a lock as you can get. Even starting around 20th to 25th, he can be considered, if you’re looking to punt. In the past, successful punts have finished around 20th to 24th at Kansas.
Track Cheat Sheet: Kansas
- Kansas is a cookie-cutter intermediate track. It’s a variable banked 1.5 mile oval. The upper groove has more banking to allow slightly more speed on the high line, and two wide racing. Also helping create two-wide racing is the fact that the track has worn since being repaved several years ago.
- Since 2014, the Kansas spring race has been a night race. Day races (hot tracks) are slippery, and lead to more passing in the turns. Night races provide maximum grip, and when cars are glued to the track in the turns, it becomes hard to pass. Track position is key this weekend.
I am a promoter at FanVice and am also a user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of FanVice and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.