Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks: COCA-COLA 600 at Charlotte
Before we get to the Nascar goodness, we here at FanVice want to alert you to a special offer with one of our affiliate sites FantasyDraft where we are offering a special $500 freeroll this Friday for any gamers that have signed up through our link to create an account and make a deposit on FantasyDraft. This is something that we will be doing for our loyal FanViceSquad members going forward, so do not miss out on this opportunity!
In addition to the upcoming freerolls (yes multiple, so you will want to take action ASAP!) we are also giving away 30 free days of FanVice premium content to anyone who signs up to FantasyDraft through our links as part of our Cinco de Mayo weekend celebration. If you are already a FanVice subscriber, just reach out to email@example.com when you sign up and deposit on FantasyDraft and we will extend your current membership by an additional 30 days. Everyone wins!
Now back to the amazing racing content from Pearce!
At Kansas (last intermediate track race), starting positions 1-5 scored 125 hog points (fast laps and laps led – soapbox time: they can’t be “dominator” points, if four drivers split them up. Four drivers cannot dominate the race, and four drivers did not dominate the race at Kansas. These drivers hogged the fast lap and laps led points and left almost nothing for the other 35 drivers, and yes, I am still writing parenthetically). Four drivers controlled 77% of the hog points, and theses four drivers finished 1st through 4th on the DFS scoreboard.
Does this mean we should devote four picks towards “hogs?” No. You can’t afford it, unless you’re rostering Corey LaJoie. At Texas, four drivers scored over 20 hog points combing for 147 of the 229 hog points (64%). It looks like you should devote four picks towards hogs, but you can’t afford it.
At Las Vegas there were three hogs, and Atlanta had one hog.
Pick three hogs (2 lap leaders and 1 fast lapper). Pick a driver on the front row. Strongly consider a driver on the second row. Finally, don’t forget about Truex and Johnson.
Dig into the statistics and find the best plays for this weekend’s NASCAR event with the Daily Fantasy NASCAR Spreadsheet:
Top Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (plus $9,000)
The Daily Fantasy NASCAR circuit will make its fifth and most prestigious run at an intermediate track this season. There will be 400 laps on Sunday night, and you will absolutely need the two to three drivers that hog the laps led and fast lap points. These hogs do not come cheap.
Kevin Harvick is starting on the front row. Lock him in. Even when he disappointed at Texas from the pole, he still scored the second most hog points and had the best average running position. In the first intermediate track race of the season at Atlanta, Harvick abused the field (102 hog points). With the new repave at Texas, Atlanta may be more comparable to Charlotte. He looked fine in practice.
Kyle Larson did not fail inspection. His team failed to get the car loaded into inspection in time. He did not qualify, so he’ll start from the back. This is the second time that this has happened to the 42 car at an intermediate track. The last time at Texas, Larson went on to score the second most fantasy points (85 points). No one was smoking fast in practice, but Larson was the best. He was 3rd, 19th, and 1st on short runs and 3rd and 4th on long runs.
Martin Truex, Jr. has been too good to fade. His car is clearly the best car at intermediate tracks this year, and last year. He has three top 5s in the last 4 Charlotte races. Better yet, Truex has scored the most points in the last two Coca-Cola 600 races. In practice, he posted solid numbers, but practice speeds do not really matter all that much (day practice vs. night race). What does matter is that Truex’s team has been the best at taking information from day practices and building a great night race setup.
Middle Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($7,000-$9,000)
Kasey Kahne will finish with top 10 fantasy points, if he finishes 10th. A top 15, and he’ll score top 15 fantasy points. He’s earned a top 15 finish in 3 of the 4 intermediate track races this season. Charlotte has been his best track. He has 8 top 15s in the last 10 Charlotte races. He’s second in career wins at Charlotte. Even during his slump between 2014-2016, Kahne still raced well at Charlotte.
Austin Dillon is having the worst season of his career. It got real this week when his crew chief was fired. He finished 16th last week at Kansas. That’s typically where we expect Dillon to run, but he could sneak into the top 10 this week. Crew chief shakeups tend to have positive effects. The last time Dillon got a new crew chief mid season, he earned a top 5 out of nowhere at Michigan. Dillon was good enough in practice, and he’s finished 16th or better in his 3 Coca-Cola 600 runs. This feels like a race where Dillon just hangs around the top 20 the whole time, and then on lap 400, he finishes close to 5th.
Value Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks ($6,000-$7,000)
We’re looking for place differential and finishing position. If we can get them both, then awesome. Sometimes it’s foolish to chase both.
Chris Buescher’s worst finish at a 1.5 mile track this season is 24th. Now, 25 points from a $6,300 driver won’t work in a GPP, but that’s his floor. He’ll work well in cash lineups, but he’s fine in GPPs as well. If he finishes 20th, not unheard of, he scores 33 points and does his job – score 5x and provide salary relief.
Punt Tier Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks (sub $6,000)
Landon Cassill has 4 top 25s in the last 5 Charlotte races. If Cassill goes from 31st to 25th, that’s 24 fantasy points (4.7x). David Ragan is the pivot for lower ownership. In the end, it comes down to which driver has best restart at the end.
Track Cheat Sheet: Charlotte
- Charlotte is THE cookie-cutter 1.5 mile oval. The banking in the turns is fairly steep and cars will top 200 mph early in a run. Passing up front will be rare. It will happen on chaotic restarts and late in a long green flag run, if a driver has abused his tires.
- This is a night race and all of the practices are during the day. If a driver looks uncharacteristically bad in practice, then take note. If they look average, don’t worry about it. Day setups and night setups are different. You’re best bet is to look at past night races, and determine which drivers/team adjusted the best (last week at Kansas and last spring at Charlotte).
I am a promoter at FanVice and am also a user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of FanVice and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.