CFL Week 7
What is going on #FamVice! This is going to be an exciting series of articles that I’ll be producing throughout the rest of the CFL season to get everyone up to speed for each week for the North of the Border football. These articles and my accompanying podcast will be more in-depth than my previous Slack Chat thoughts now that I am on a more stable platform. Through these two media channels, I will be able to give a much clearer picture of guys that I like and don’t like in a given week and most importantly, why I like or dislike those players. For the articles, I will be utilizing a position by position format and for the podcasts I will utilize a game by game approach. So without further ado, let’s get into the good stuff!
Mike Reilly – HAM vs EDM – $11,000
Reilly lit it up last week against BC, scoring 40.6 DK points in the process, and he certainly has a path to do the same thing again this week against Hamilton. As many of you may have seen on Saturday night, Hamilton had their butts handed to them by the Calgary Stampeders, allowing 60 real life points in the process. While Hamilton will see Simoni Lawrence come back into the mix, I doubt that this will help them enough to overcome being on the road in Edmonton against one of the best QBs in this league. Over the course of the season, this Hamilton defense has allowed 396 yards on average per game through the air, and quite frankly, that’s a low number. This pass defense has gotten lucky by allowing a ton of points early on, to the point where teams are running the ball in the second half just to run out the clock. All of this makes Reilly a fine cash game play; tournaments become a different story.
If you read my write up last week on Bo Levi Mitchell, you may have seen that I was going to be lower on my exposure to him then the field was. I said this because I believed that the game script would not be in Mitchell’s favor. As the week prior, the Stampeders kept with the run game in the second half against the Rough Riders. This is exactly what played out with the Stampeders last week against Hamilton, with no Mitchell at all in the second half. I’m not saying that this has a 100% chance of happening- what I am saying is that there is a possibility that Mike Reilly does not do much in the second half of this football game, limiting his upside for fantasy purposes.
Trevor Harris – WPG vs OTT – $9,600
While I always have biases that favor the Ottawa Redblacks, this selection of Trevor Harris can be one that I make both objectively and subjectively, regardless of where my fanhood stands. After having lackluster games against Toronto and Edmonton followed with a bye week, many people are going to ignore a guy who could possibly be the best quarterback in the Canadian Football League (though that could change due to the game’s high Vegas total). Not only that, he is going up against the second worst pass defense in Winnipeg, who allow 358.2 yards per game passing. I’m unsure where his floor currently stands, as he might be a little rusty coming off the bye week, but the ceiling is very high in a game that can end in an offensive shootout. In tournaments this week, Trevor Harris will most likely be my highest exposure quarterback on the week because of the amazing match if he gets against Winnipeg. Don’t get too cute, just play the damn guy.
Kevin Glenn – SSK vs BC – $9,700
Quarterback is not an exciting position to pick this week for fantasy purposes if we’re being completely honest. A lot of these guys are just not in exciting matchups where I see a ton of upside for them. Kevin Glenn though is a player that has the potential go off against a slightly overrated British Columbia defense this week, and if there is one game this week that I expect Vegas to be completely wrong about, it’s this one between the Saskatchewan Roughriders and the British Columbia Lions. While Vegas projects BC to win this game by 6.5 points, I actually expect Saskatchewan to win this game. This underrated offense for Saskatchewan has the firepower to dominate this BC defense with the likes of Glenn, Carter, Roosevelt, and Grant. For tournaments, I would always stack Glenn with at least two of his receivers- he doesn’t have the upside to win you a tournament by himself like some quarterbacks do, but is great when paired with two of his receivers.
Andrew Harris – WPG vs OTT – $7,600
How Andrew Harris is not the top priced running back on DraftKings will always baffle me, though I can’t complain. His relatively inexpensive price allows for me to have maximum exposure to him and tournaments each and every week, which is what I intend to do with him again this week against the Ottawa Redblacks. Does rostering offensive players against the Ottawa Redblacks hurt my poor soul severely? Absolutely! But like many others, when money gets involved, my heart begins to think differently. While Harris does see a decent (for the CFL) 11.6 carries per game, it’s his high target numbers that make him such a great fantasy play in all formats each week; 8.4 targets per game to be more specific. Which, by itself, is the eighth highest number in the entire league. As far as his target share percentages are concerned, he is seeing 21.65% of all receiving targets for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. To put that into perspective, team leading receiver Darvin Adams is seeing 22.16% of the targets for the Blue Bombers. All of this combined playing against the third worst pass defense in Ottawa who is allowing 353.5 yards per game passing, should lead to an interesting outcome. Andrew Harris will most likely be the highest owned running back on DraftKings this week, and he is extremely difficult fade, though with the number of opportunities he gets to accumulate fantasy points every time he steps out onto the field. Fade him with caution!
Jerome Messam – CAL vs TOR – $7,600
While not an exciting matchup this week, he does get a Toronto run defense that allows 80.8 yards on the ground per game. The great thing about Messam is that he also gets a good chunk of opportunities per game to accrue fantasy points as well. He is averaging 14.5 carries per game and three targets per game to boot; not a ton of action on the receiving game, but the Stampeders have shown time and time again that they trust the guy in the redzone. Allowing him to score three touchdowns all from within the Redzone. If the game script allows for this to happen, Messam could be in for a solid outing against the Toronto Argonauts. I am fine with the play in all formats, but prefer him in cash alongside Harris.
Anthony Coombs – CAL vs TOR – $6,400
Running back is a very weak position this week, so we might have to go slightly off the radar. While Anthony Coombs does not fit the bill completely, he still is a guy that could go under owned and be a part of the winning tournament lineup this week, given the right scenarios playing out. Over the course of the season, Coombs has been an underrated contributor to the Toronto Argonauts offense, who has been seeing 7.5 targets per game, or 16.92 % of all the targets for the Toronto Argonauts. For the first time this season, he could go from someone who is vulturing touchdowns and fantasy points away from me to a guy who is accumulating those fantasy points in this matchup. This week, ignore the price and have at least some exposure to Coombs on a week where running back is an otherwise weak position. And, it also doesn’t hurt that Armanti Edwards has been ruled out this week, sweetening this play even more.
Marken Michel – CAL vs TOR – $5,300
With Kamar Jorden placed on the six-game injured list, Marken Michel will be filling in for the time being. The man dominated last week catching six passes for 190 yards and a touchdown, something that he may or may not be able to replicate this week. In cash games, I absolutely love the play even in a somewhat difficult matchup against Toronto simply because of his price and number of targets that I expect him to see throughout this game. Thankfully for Michel, this game will stay much closer than last week’s game against Hamilton did. There is absolutely no chance that he gets pulled from this one early (note: he was not pulled at all during the Hamilton game), though you’ll probably see him in most other cash game lineups that you go up against this week, including all of mine that I will be rolling out this week, so be aware of that (especially if you want to take my money in H2Hs). This makes him a solid tournament fade, factoring in the high ownership that I expect him to see. Generally I will say that about any receiver that I expect to be at least 25% owned in tournaments, which is certainly a reasonable number that I expect for Michel this week.
Greg Ellingson – WPG vs OTT – $9,000
If I’m going to be using Trevor Harris in a large portion of my tournament lineups this week, I might as well stack him with a receiver whom I rank third best in the CFL. Ellingson is seeing some of the highest target numbers in the league both through targets per game and target share percentage on the Ottawa Redblacks, seeing 9.33 targets per game as well as 24.89% of all targets on the Redblacks. The former stat is third in the CFL, and the latter is second amongst players who have played in at least 50% of their team’s games this season. As far as ownership is concerned, I do believe that Ellingson has a path to be lower owned for two reasons- his disappointing outing in the last matchup versus Toronto, combined with the bye last week. As a bonus, players may rather pay the extra $300 this week and go up to Zylstra, which I believe to be a -EV move this week.
T.J Thorpe – WPG vs OTT – $4,900
Thorpe is going to go under owned this week simply because of the popularity of Michel for the Stampeders. With the possibility of no Weston Dressler this week, this could be a breakout game for Thorpe, who in his first two games has seen 17 targets catching 15 of them for 129 yards, an insanely high target rate as well as a high catch rate of 88.2%. Seeing how poorly Ottawa’s defenses played this season, it’s no surprise that a 6-foot 200-pound receiver could dominate against them this week. In those two games, he has also seen three red zone targets, which already puts him fourth on the team in that stat. Like I said before, this is all through just two games- with more opportunities coming his way due to injuries on the Blue Bombers. Like I did last week, I’m going all in on the guy in tournaments due to the lower ownership and similar upside that he has compared to Michel.
If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, direct them to me on either the slack chat, or my Twitter @Echeney17. Good luck in your contests this week!