CFL Week 15 Breakdown
What is going on #FamVice! This is going to be an exciting series of articles that I’ll be producing throughout the rest of the CFL season to get everyone up to speed for each week for the North of the Border football! These articles and my accompanying podcast will be more in-depth than my previous Slack Chat thoughts now that I am on a more stable platform. Through these two media channels, I will be able to give a much clearer picture of guys that I like and don’t like in a given week and most importantly, why I like or dislike those players. For the articles, I will be utilizing a position by position format and for the podcasts I will utilize a game by game approach. So without further ado, let’s get into the good stuff!
Ricky Ray – TOR vs HAM – $10,300
Just like last week, Ricky Ray finds himiself at the top of my QB list again this week. The most consistent quarterback in the CFL gets another beautiful matchup against a Hamilton defense that continues to rank worst in the league against the pass and is giving up an average of 347.2 yards per game through the air. These two teams met on Labor Day weekend in Hamilton and in that game Ricky Ray was 34 of 47 for 325 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. Despite the Toronto Argonauts lossing that game, Ricky Ray still had a solid day so we know he is capable of producing in this spot.
Don’t be fooled by Ricky Ray’s fantasy production in recent weeks. Over the last two weeks, the Argonauts haven’t needed to throw the ball much thanks in large part to back-to-back stellar performances by their running back James Wilder jr. Take last week, for example, Ray only threw for 182 yards and a TD in a convincing 33-19 win against the Montreal Alouettes. I’m going back to Ray as he finds himself in a very safe matchup that makes me 100% confident using him in both cash games and tournaments this week.
Mike Reilly – EDM vs WPG – $10,700
After having a bye week last week, people might be ignoring the firepower that this Edmonton Eskimos offense contains, especially in the passing game. The combination of Edmonton’s powerful receiving targets and no running game to speak of, it’s impossible not to love Mike Reilly in this spot. Last time these two teams met, they combined for over 1,000 yards of offense. Mike Reilly threw for 356 yards and two touchdowns while adding 6 rushes for 14 yards and another touchdown. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have done nothing since their Week 9 matchup to improve their pass defense and outside of one bad start against Saskatchewan a month ago, Reilly has been nothing but consistently dominant. In his last three games, two starts against Calgary and one against Toronto, Mike Reilly has thrown for an average of 368 yards against two of the best defenses in this league.
While his price might be somewhat difficult to justify in a cash game, there’s no reason not to roll with him in tournaments. Several other quarterback matchups on the week will dilute his ownership which is what we look for in players with massive daily fantasy upside on a weekly basis.
Kevin Glenn – SSK vs OTT – $9,600
For those of you looking for a cheaper quarterback, Kevin Glenn will be your guy this week. Yes, I understand that he got benched during last week’s game verse Calgary but it is important to understand why he was benched. Saskatchewan was not able to defend the pass rush of Calgary so they were forced to bench Kevin Glenn, due to his lack of mobility, and put in their mobile quarterback, Brandon Bridge. For those of you that are worried about whether or not Kevin Glenn will start on Friday, the head coach has already announced that Glenn is the starter for this week.
If any of you watched last week as Winnipeg destroyed the heart and souls of Ottawa Redblacks fans across the world you know that the Redblacks defense was horrific last week. I believe this was due to fatigue because the offense couldn’t stay on the field long enough to give the defense a break. That should be the case again this week as I expect the Saskatchewan defense to be able to handle themselves against the struggling Ryan Lindley. Glenn should be working against a fatigued defense for most of this game and while he is not the safest play for a cash game, I’m very much okay with the idea of using Kevin Glenn in tournaments where he could free up salary cap to put other high-usage high-priced players into your lineups.
James Wilder jr. – TOR vs. HAM – $7,300
For the first time, I have to cave in and use a Toronto Argonauts running back. For a good portion of the season, the Toronto Argonauts were extremely against running the ball for whatever reason. That has changed over the last two weeks, as they have allowed James Wilder to run the ball a combined 21 times for 330 yards. While those two games were against two of the worst rush defenses in the league, the matchup against Hamilton isn’t that much worse, as they are allowing 93.8 yards per game making them the fourth worst run defense in the CFL.
Just as the game script was favorable in the last two games, this week should be no different. Toronto should be leading wire-to-wire as long as they don’t turn the ball over 3 times like they did in the Labor Day game. If the game script plays out the way I expect, James Wilder should see double-digit carries in this game. While he might not see the insane yardage that he’s seen the last two weeks, it’s reasonable to expect at least 70 to 80 yards if he sees double-digit carries. I like the spot for him this week and he makes for a solid option for both cash games and tournaments.
Andrew Harris – WPG vs EDM – $8,400
Like I said before, this game between the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and the Edmonton Eskimos should be one of the highest if not the highest scoring game of the week. Andrew Harris gets a matchup against the second worst run defense in the league that is allowing 101.7 yards per game on the ground. In the last game against Edmonton, Andrew Harris went nuts, running the ball 11 times for 105 yards while catching 8 passes on nine targets for 120 yards. Anything remotely similar to this and we will see Andrew Harris in the winning lineup this week. If you read or listen to anything I’ve said about Andrew Harris over the course of this season, you already know why I love him as a fantasy option every single week. Harris an abundance of opportunities to accumulate fantasy points every week and there’s no reason why this week should be different. Roll him out across all formats if you want money this week.
Jerome Messam – CGY vs MTL – $7,700
Despite the fact that I believe Calgary is going to demolish the Montreal Alouettes this week, I don’t really like that many options in this game. Since I anticipate this to quickly become a blowout I do not expect many of the starters to play their normal allotment of minutes. The one fantasy option that I love in this game is Jerome Messam, who has proven that as long as the game script is favorable he will see his carries and accumulate his fantasy points. We saw this last week against the Saskatchewan Roughriders where, in a 15 – 9 win, he saw 23 carries for 127 yards. Again, there is no way that the Montreal Alouettes keep this game even remotely close so as long as the starters are on the field, Jerome messam should see his carries. This might not be the move to make for cash games, but certainly for tournaments if you’re willing to take on the risk of some of these starters playing into the fourth quarter.
S.J Green – TOR vs HAM – $9,100
If I’m going to like all other aspects of the Toronto Argonauts offense this week, then it seems reasonable enough to expect SJ Green will be the top receiver on the slate. Green leads the league in both targets and target market share on his team and it could be argued that Green is the top receiver in the CFL. In the previous game against Hamilton, Green caught nine passes for 103 yards. If this Hamilton pass defense is going to be playing as poorly as they have been throughout the season, then I have no reason to believe that SJ Green wouldn’t be a top 5 scoring receiver on the slate. His price tag might be high but it’s justified. The matchup alone makes him both a cash and tournament play this week.
Derel Walker – EDM vs WPG – $8,200
Pretty much every Edmonton Eskimo receiver is in play but Walker seems to be my favorite of the bunch. In two games with the team, he has seen 21 combined targets catching 6 of them for 185 yards. He even has a rushing touchdown. Being at home against one of the worst pass defenses in the league is an extreme plus for Walker, who in his 2 game sample size, just doesn’t seem to be able to be slowed down. I’m more than okay with rostering any Edmonton Eskimo receiver that you believe is going to get targets in this game. I believe that Walker is going to see the lion share of the targets see, and that’s makes for one of the best fantasy play this week.
Ryan Lankford – WPG vs EDM – $4,700
Lankford will most likely be the most chalky value option this week but this is for very good reason. In games this season where Weston Dressler has been out, Langford is seeing anywhere from 5 to 8 targets per game. Not only that but he also has upside in the kick and punt return game. As we already know, DraftKings rewards players for both their kick and punt return yardage as well as any touchdowns they might score in doing so. This gives him upside at a sub $5,000 price tag. While the value seems extremely enticing, I’m only planning to use him in tournaments. Edmonton eemains the second worst run defense in the league, they are the top pass defense in the CFL allowing only 266.3 yards per game through the air. Of course one can make the argument that because last game was extremely high scoring, this one has to be as well. And while I believe that is most likely to be the case, there is also the chance that Edmonton’s pass defense can step up at home and stop this Winnipeg offense entirely. So be careful out there folks!
If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, direct them to me on either the slack chat, or my Twitter @Echeney17. Good luck in your contests this week!