CFL Week 13 Breakdown
What is going on #FamVice! This is going to be an exciting series of articles that I’ll be producing throughout the rest of the CFL season to get everyone up to speed for each week for the North of the Border football! These articles and my accompanying podcast will be more in-depth than my previous Slack Chat thoughts now that I am on a more stable platform. Through these two media channels, I will be able to give a much clearer picture of guys that I like and don’t like in a given week and most importantly, why I like or dislike those players. For the articles, I will be utilizing a position by position format and for the podcasts I will utilize a game by game approach. So without further ado, let’s get into the good stuff!
Drew Tate – OTT vs MTL – $8,900
A lot has happened this week with the Montreal Alouettes this week as the Alouettes fired both their head coach and defensive coordinattor. Nothing about MTL situation leads me to feel confident about their readiness to play this week so all offensive players for the Ottawa Redblacks are in play. That includes the interim starting quarterback for the Redblacks, Drew Tate. After suffering a shoulder sprain in last week’s game, the Ottawa Redblacks put Trevor Harris on the six-game injury list, which has thrusted Drew Tate into the starting QB role. During last weeks game, Tate threw for 114 yards and a touchdown and completed 8 of 13 passing attempts.
The Montreal Alouettes defense has not shown an ability to pressure opposing QBs this season and with all the changes to the team staff this week, I don’t see that changing.
Drew Tate is not going to be a top GPP play for me this week, but I am all in for cash.
Jeremiah Masoli – HAM vs SSK – $8,100
Am I really going down the path again of suggesting a Hamilton quarterback? Absolutely! After not winning a game until the beginning of September, Hamilton is now on a two-game winning streak and are in the position to steal a playoff spot in the CFL East Division. Jeremiah Masoli is one of the key pieces that can bring them to the promised land.
Masoli this week is going up against a Saskatchewan Roughriders defense. While the Roughriders have looked great at times they have put up some poor performances this year. They are generating some of the highest amounts of pressure on opposing quarterbacks in the entire CFL, however, they are giving up 295.8 passing yards as well as 92.1 rushing yards per game. That is the fourth most passing yards and third most rushing yards per game in the CFL. Masoli is a duel threat QB in this matchup as we know he can beat teams with his arm as well as his legs. Last week, he showed us that rushing upside as he carried the ball seven times for 73 yards. I’m all in for the Jeremiah Masoli in cash games and tournaments.
Mike Reilly – EDM vs TOR – $10,700
It’s been quite some time since I’ve been excited to use Mike Reilly in my lineups. This week his price and matchup have aligned to make him an intriguing QB option for me. It might seem crazy to suggest such a thing when Reilly’s matchup involves him going up against the top pass defense in the league but if we dig into the per game numbers of the Toronto Argonaut’s pass defense, I see some glaring holes. When the Toronto Argonauts went up against Bo Levi Mitchell and the Calgary Stampeders, they gave up 384 yards and two touchdowns through the air. Don’t forget, Toronto is coming off that game against Hamilton, right before their bye week, in which the defense looked atrocious.
Even as the road team this week, I have absolute confidence in Mike Riley can succeed in this matchup. I’ll be over weight on him and tournaments this week.
C.J Gable – HAM vs SSK – $6,100
For those who want a pivot off of Jeremiah Masoli at QB this week, C.J Gable is the perfect running back for you. During the current 2 game winning streak that Hamilton is on, Gable’s carries have been on the incline as he saw six carries against Toronto and 11 against Ottawa last week. In addition to the increase in carries, Gable has seen four targets come his way in each game. That might not sound like a large workload but for a running back at less than $7,000 in the CFL, this is just fine. Don’t forget, Gable also gets a plus running matchup against the Saskatchewan defense that is the third worst rush defense in the CFL.
Game script should favor the run game for Hamilton, especially if Kevin Glenn is out this week for Saskatchewan. I’ll be overly invested in this Hamilton offense this week in all formats. May God have mercy on my soul.
Jerome Messam – CGY vs BC – $7,600
This week there are very few good matchups on paper at the running back position however, if certain game scripts play out the way I expect, then someone like Jerome Messam could succeed in this matchup against the best run defense in the league. Yes, the BC Lions are only allowing a league-low 73.9 rushing yards per game but that doesn’t mean someone like Messam should be ruled out entirely. Last week was the only game the entire season where Messam saw less than 10 carries in a game that he did not exit with an injury. Messam has a ton of upside week in and week out at the RB position because of all of the opportunities that he gets to touch the ball.
Jerome Messam will likely be under owned in tournaments this week because of the perceived poor matchup. Don’t let that scare you- he has a healthy workload and plenty of goal-line opportunities. Buy him here, especially on a week as bad as this at the running back position.
Jeremiah Johnson – BC vs CAL – $7,500
Jeremiah Johnson is the textbook definition of a game-script dependent player. Last week, he had a dominant game against a terrible Montreal Alouettes defense, running the ball 19 times for 91 yards and two touchdowns. To be fair, that was in large part due to the fact that BC was dominating the game against Montreal wire-to-wire. In games that BC is trailing Jeremiah Johnson Is not as involved in the BC offense, which can be seen during BC’s three-game losing streak in which he only saw 5, 5, and 7 carries.
Playing Jeremiah Johnson this week definitely carries risk given how dependent his production is on gamescript. While it may seem more unlikely than not that this will be a game which BC can keep close, I still believe there is a chance that BC is able to succeed. I plan to have exposure to Jeremiah Johnson in tournaments only this week. Use at your own risk.
Greg Ellingson – OTT vs MTL – $9,400
I personally cringe anytime I think about playing a receiver that’s priced up in the $9,000 range. Nevertheless, I find myself interested in Greg Ellingson this week. Last week, there was some concern about the chemistry between Drew Tate and Greg Ellingson, due to the lack of target that Ellingson recieved but I am not reading too much into it. Tate has had over a week to adjust to being the starting QB for the Ottawa Redblacks and has had additional first-team reps in practice. Regardless of who is throwing Ellingson the ball, it’s impossible to ignore a guy who is top five in every single receiving statistic in CFL.
So, if we’re going to stack Drew Tate with anyone on this Ottawa team, why not have it be the guy who is targeted most heavily in this offense. The price makes me hesitant to play him in cash but for tournaments, I’m all about paying for high-upside, high-priced receivers this week.
Luke Tasker – HAM vs SSK – $6,500
To complete the Hamilton trifecta, I have Luke Tasker as one of my top wide receivers on the slate. It doesn’t matter who’s playing quarterback for Hamilton since Tasker is consistently their highest targeted receiver. Even though Tasker is clearly Hamilton’s best receiver, I believe people will be extremely underweight on him because of his lack of production over the last 2 weeks. I believe the passing game will need to be alive for this Hamilton offense if they are going to win their third game in a row against Saskatchewan. As much as I love the run game this week, it can’t be the only thing they have going for them if they hope to win.
All things considered, I believe that Tasker is a tournament only play due to the volatility that he shows from week to week. You could play in cash if you truly wanted to, but I wouldn’t go there personally.
Caleb Holley – SSK vs HAM – $5,000
You didn’t think I was going to ignore Saskatchewan completely, did you? With or without Kevin Glenn, there is still quite a bit of upside with this offense as a whole. I have faith in some of the receiving options for the Saskatchewan and of course you can go with the offensive staples in Naaman Roosevelt and Duron Carter, but if you really need value at WR, then Caleb Holley is the receiver you probably want to roster. Holley is still an inconsistent piece of this offense but he seems to average about 5.5 targets per game and he is somewhat of a deep threat in this offense. Overall, I think he’ll be one of the lower own value plays with so many other options to go. He has the potential to be one of the best WR options in a matchup against a Hamilton defense that is still allowing 359 yards per game through the air. The highest in the league. Let’s not forget that.
If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, direct them to me on either the slack chat, or my Twitter @Echeney17. Good luck in your contests this week!