CFL Week 12 Breakdown
What is going on #FamVice! This is going to be an exciting series of articles that I’ll be producing throughout the rest of the CFL season to get everyone up to speed for each week for the North of the Border football! These articles and my accompanying podcast will be more in-depth than my previous Slack Chat thoughts now that I am on a more stable platform. Through these two media channels, I will be able to give a much clearer picture of guys that I like and don’t like in a given week and most importantly, why I like or dislike those players. For the articles, I will be utilizing a position by position format and for the podcasts I will utilize a game by game approach. So without further ado, let’s get into the good stuff!
Trevor Harris – OTT vs HAM – $10,500
Another week and another chance to attack our favorite defense in the league. No better place to start than with Trevor Harris as he gets a home matchup against Hamilton, who is fresh off their first win of the season last week. Ottawa Redblacks are currently a 12 point favorite but I personally don’t believe that the game is going to be quite the extreme blowout like vegas is predicting. Regardless, OTT is the home favorite against a still broken defense in Hamilton- the same Hamilton Tiger-Cats team that is allowing 364.8 yards per game through the air to opposing offenses.
Over Trevor Harris last three games he has thrown for six touchdowns and averaged 353 yards passing per game and these are the numbers that we want to see on a consistent basis from a quarterback, especially if we are rostering him in CFL contests. I will be all over Trevor Harris in this spot against Hamilton and I’m very much okay with using him in both cash and tournaments this week.
Travis Lulay – BC vs MTL – $9,400
I am anticipating that the BC Lions will start Travis Lulay at quarterback this week. Last week Lulay nearly helped the Lions overcome a three-touchdown deficit in the fourth quarter. He threw 202 yards and two touchdowns in the second half alone. I expect similar results this week against the Montreal Alouettes.
One of the narratives that I’ve been harping on for the past few weeks is the fact that the Montreal Alouettes do not generate a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. I expect that Lulay should have plenty of time to make decisions in the pocket which will be beneficial to the BC offense, but not the Montreal defense.
Travis Lulay has one of the lower price points of any quarterback on DraftKings this week but I do not think he will garner much ownership. Vegas has been pretty innacurate at predicting CFL lines this season so it makes sense to ignore Vegas here and get Lulay at a reduced price and ownrship. Like Trevor Harris before him, I am also okay with playing Lulay in both cash and tournament formats this week.
Jeremiah Masoli – HAM vs OTT – $7,700
I might be the only person in the fantasy CFL industry to suggest using the Hamilton quarterbacks not once, but twice this season. I see some merit in using Jeremiah Masoli in tournament lineups this week. He looked halfway decent in last week’s game against Toronto Argonauts, especially considering that he was working against strong winds throughout the first half. Overall, he put up 219 yards and a touchdown in the game and while that doesn’t really sound all that exciting when you dig into last week’s game it gets a little better. Unlike last week, Masoli wont have to face the tough Toronto Argonauts defense, that is allowing only 264.9 yd passing per game. Instead, he will face Ottawa who has been third worst in the CFL giving up 324.6 yards per game through the air. That’s a massive difference.
If you decide to use Jeremiah Masoli this week you will get a low owned quarterback with a decent amount of upside and it will also allow you to roster multiple stud wide receivers. Needless to say, this is strictly a tournament only.
Jerome Messam – CGY v EDM – $7,700
A lot about what I wrote up for Messam last week applies again this week since these two teams just played last week in Calgary. In last week’s tilt, Messam again saw a ton of rushing attempts relative to CFL averages, with 13 carries in the game running for 61 yards and two touchdowns. I don’t see that changing here as I believe the game script will be very similar in this week’s game. Edmonton still is missing a lot of talent on the defensive end of the ball and that is not going to help their case this week. The only bit of analysis that I would change from last week is that the targets that Messam saw in the game against Toronto were likely just a fluke but other than that, everything stays the same. Jerome Messam still is a great play for cash games and tournaments on DraftKings this week.
Kienan Lafrance – SSK vs WPG – $4,400
The cheap chalk running back play of the week goes to Kienan LaFrance of Saskatchewan. LaFrance will get the bulk of the carries in place of Cameron Marshall, who is out for at least 2 to 3 weeks. Last week after Marshall got hurt, Lafrance saw 8 carries for 23 yards as well as catching one of two targets for 15 yards. While none of these numbers seem spectacular, keep in mind that he didn not get into the game until the second half.
Whether it be another running back, such as Andrew Harris (who I still like a lot this week despite not mentioning him), or Jerome Messam playing LaFrance this week will free up a lot of cap space to fit other great players into your lineup. He is a solid salary relief play who could provide you with plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points throughout this game. It is worth mentioning that his low price point combined with the increase in his workload, LaFrance ownershiip may be high.
Jeremiah Johnson – BC vs MTL – $7,400
If for some reason you’re not going to roster Travis Lulay, then I highly suggest rostering Jeremiah Johnson. Don’t forget, the Montreal Alouettes not only have a poor pass defense but they also have a poor rush defense, third worst in the CFL in fact, and they are allowing 91.9 yards per game rushing. This is a great spot for Jeremiah Johnson to have a rebound after a string of poor fantasy performances, mainly due to the game scripts the BC Lions have been forced into. Look for Jeremiah Johnson to be a lower owned high price stud running back that could have the up side to win a tournament for you this week on DraftKings.
Emmanuel Arceneaux – BC vs MTL – $8,100
DraftKings always has this strange desire to constantly price Chris Williams above Emmanuel Arceneaux which is something that I’m not going to fight against. Emmanuel Arceneaux sees every opportunity to score fantasy points week in and week so the odd pricing isn’t due to recent performance or opportunities. So far this season he has not seen less than six targets per game and in his last three games, he has seen 8, 12, and 8 targets respectively. Arceneaux is not only dominating the target market share outside of the Red Zone, but he also leads the team in Red Zone targets. If I’m going to be pairing any receiver with Travis Lulay this week, it’s going to be his number one target in Emmanuel Arceneaux who continues to show us why he is one of the best, if not the best receiver in the CFL.
Weston Dressler – WPG vs SSK – $7,100
In his first game back from injury with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, Weston Dressler caught 6 of his 9 targets for 64 yards. A pretty solid outing for his first game back. The main number to focus on is the 9 targets that he saw. If he can consistently see this many targets in a game, there’s definitely a good chunk of upside fantasy-wise for Dressler. Even though Saskatchewan Roughriders defense is one of the best in the CFL at putting pressure on opposing quarterback each game, there seems to be a soft spot in that defense for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. In their two previous meetings this season, WPG has put up 392 yards and 400 total yards respectively. Darvin Adams and Andrew Harris are by far the two most popular offensive options to use for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers so the contrarian move here is to roster Weston Dressler. He could potentially see the same, if not more, opportunities to score fantasy points than either Adams or Harris individually. I wouldn’t go with Weston Dressler in a cash game due to the risk involved, but I don’t see an issue with the move in tournaments where you need at least one contrarian play to take it down.
Kenny Stafford – EDM vs CAL – $3,600
It was only a matter of time before something had to give in the Calgary Stampeders defense, and I believe we saw that in last weeks matchup with the Edmonton Eskimos. In the second half of last week’s game, Edmonton was able to get some kind of a passing rhythm going to the point where Brandon Zylstra was able to catch 9 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown and Kenny Stafford was about to haul in 8 Balls for 62 yards in a touchdown as well. Kenny Stafford is certainly a receiver that is trending extremely upward for Edmonton. In the five games that he is started this season, he has seen 7, 8, 3, 5, and 12 targets respectively. My best guess is that Calgary will adjust in an effort to put more effort into defending Bowman and Brandon Zylstra rather than focusing on Stafford. If this is the case, Kenny Stafford could be in line for another heck of a game this week. I am okay with the play in both cash and tournaments this week as this will allow you to free up a lot of cap space to roster other notable players.
If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, direct them to me on either the slack chat, or my Twitter @Echeney17. Good luck in your contests this week!