CFL Week 10 Breakdown
What is going on #FamVice! This is going to be an exciting series of articles that I’ll be producing throughout the rest of the CFL season to get everyone up to speed for each week for the North of the Border football! These articles and my accompanying podcast will be more in-depth than my previous Slack Chat thoughts now that I am on a more stable platform. Through these two media channels, I will be able to give a much clearer picture of guys that I like and don’t like in a given week and most importantly, why I like or dislike those players. For the articles, I will be utilizing a position by position format and for the podcasts I will utilize a game by game approach. So without further ado, let’s get into the good stuff!
Trevor Harris – OTT v BC – $10,500
Not having the Hamilton Ti-Cats on the schedule this week, we have to find other places to get our free square quarterback plays of the week, and BC might provide us with the best possible spot for this. The team has looked horrid in their past two games against opposing QBs, and it doesn’t look as if that can improve too much in an away tilt against the Ottawa Redblacks. Harris looked sharp last week against Hamilton, especially once the second half came around. Which is a positive sign for a player who had been struggling in the weeks prior.
While BC has been the definition of average against the pass this season (5th in the CFL allowing 309.9 yards per game through the air) they have had their struggles this season at being able to generate pressure on opposing QBs, which is something that favors Harris and a poor Ottawa offensive line in this spot. Being at home against a struggling defense is what makes Trevor Harris one of my favorite QB plays this week. I am comfortable rolling him out in both cash and GPP.
Mike Reilly – EDM v SAS – $11,400
If we are being honest here, I am not truly in love with the matchup that Reilly finds himself in this week. He is going up against a Saskatchewan Roughriders team that is generating some of the highest amounts of pressure on opposing QBs that we are seeing in the CFL this season- they also made themselves out to look like the greatest show on turf in their last time out against BC just before their bye week. The Roughriders did this by generating five interceptions, two lost fumbles, and four sacks over the course of the game. All of this in mind, what makes Reilly a good QB play this week? Simple, he’s the best QB in the league (statistically) and this might be one of the worst weeks for QB we will see all year.
Again, not having Hamilton on the schedule this week hurts us as fantasy players because it gives us one less option at QB for a position that sees only eight viable options per week. Luckily for Reilly, he is at home this week, where he has normally played better. I like the play in cash though believe that Harris is a better option there. For GPPs, Reilly makes for a fine option, though make sure that you have less than 45% exposure on him, which is where I believe his ownership will be in tournaments this week.
Matt Nichols – WPG v MTL – $10,200
Last week, I was in Mexico on vacation. On that vacation, there was one day when my dad and I went on a snorkeling excursion near the coral reef in Cancun. We got to see some of the underwater artwork that was hidden in the ocean, on top of swimming with the fish. I must’ve become one with them because I have the top three priced (and owned) QBs on this list. Aside from some silly anecdote about underwater big doings, there is a method to my madness.
In three of his last four games played, he has thrown for over 315 yards, which given this level of consistency, can provide him with a very solid floor. In this three games, he has also maintained a completion percentage above 70%. Again, something we would want to see from a QB that we are going to roster in cash games.
As far as the Montreal defense is concerned, they have been one of the worst in this league all season. They have generated the least amount of pressure in the CFL according to my own tracking, and it shows. The Alouettes have only generated nine sacks this season, by far the lowest in the CFL. Following that same narrative, they have also generated the fewest interceptions in the league having only two up to this point. With all of this in mind, it is easy to say that Montreal might be the defense to pick on this week. Feel free to roll out Nichols in both cash and GPP contests this week. Especially in GPPs because I believe of the three QBs written up, Nichols will be the lowest owned.
Andrew Harris – WPG v MTL – $7,900
Harris could be the most expensive player on the slate and I would still use him over the top play in any other position. Harris is just a lock and load in all formats this week. Everything I said in the Nichols write up remains true for Harris. This Alouettes defense is bad, though not as bad against the run as they are the pass. But with Harris, it doesn’t matter. After having a few weeks where his target numbers were trending downwards, he saw them go back up again seeing nine targets last week against Edmonton. And while he only saw 11 carries, he was still able to scrape 105 yards out of them. I would expect that the number of carries goes up a bit this week because I expect Winnipeg to be up in this game throughout. Just play Harris, don’t fade, just play!
LaDarius Perkins – EDM v SSK – $6,700
Perkins is a talented RB, and while he is no longer a minimum priced stud play with guaranteed insane value, he is still a guy that is going to get the opportunity to score fantasy points all throughout the game against this Saskatuan defense. I would project somewhere between 13-18 carries and 2-4 targets in the game, about average for what he has done in his three starts this season. Earlier, I stated about how talented this defensive has been in recent week, however, none of this has masked the fact that they still have the second worst rush defense in the CFL. They are allowing a relatively insane 96.9 yards on the ground per game. With this stat, combine with the Vegas line on this game that I actually agree with (Edmonton favored by 5.5 as of this writing), I think this is a spot where Perkins can bounce back after a lackluster game against Winnipeg last week.
Jerome Messam – CAL vs TOR – $7,500
Messam has seen a very steady workload throughout the season, and while the targets are not there, the rushing attempts are. Which is all he might need in a game that could very well turn into a blowout in favor of Calgary. Even in games where Calgary has won by double digits, Messam has always found a way to see at least 10 carries. Which might not sound like a lot to people who are accustomed to the NFL game, but this is a pretty good amount in a league that sees even more passing plays ran then in the NFL. In lineups where you are fading Harris or going with two RBs, then Messam is the way to go simply through the number of rushing attempts that I am projecting for him this week.
Emmanuel Arceneaux – BC v OTT – $7,900
I absolutely despise the QB situation in BC, none of the QB options are very consistent right now, and that concerns me a bit. I think though that this offense can do a least a bit of damage to the second worst pass defense in the league. While most people would be looking to Chris Williams as the receiver that is trending most upward (and he is trending up no doubt), I still am a firm believer in Arceneaux being the better option overly Williams. Simply put, you are getting more opportunities to accrue fantasy points with Arceneaux then you are with Williams. And you are doing so at a lower price point. As long as Arceneaux is seeing a larger market share of targets both in and outside of the red zone, then I love the play over Williams. I am fully comfortable rolling Arceneaux out as both a cash and tournament play this week. Considering that both his floor and ceiling stays very solid with the market share of targets that he sees per game.
Darvin Adams – WPG v MTL – $8,000
If Matt Nichols is going to be one of favorite QBs to use this week, then Darvin Adams has to be one of my favorite receivers by default. He has a slight lead over Harris are the target market share leader on this team, seeing no less than seven targets in each game this season both with and without Weston Dressler on the field. And the best news, the Nichols, Adams, Harris pairing is one that been a strong positive correlation on the season. Which means you are free to roll out the three man stack in tournaments in juicy matchups such as this one against the Alouettes. The targets should stay as is for this game unless something drastic happens, so roster Adams with max comfort in this one.
Kenny Shaw – OTT v BC – $6,100
As I stated before, Trevor Harris is one of my favorite QBs on the slate. In cash games, correlations might not matter as much, but in tournaments, they are downright essential to have in order to hit the big score. You look at Harris’s top targeted receivers on the season in Ellingson and Sinopoli. Of course they are both top options on a weekly basis if Harris is. But then you look at the prices. When it comes to constructing tournament lineups, I usually like to pair two receivers with my QB. If you are paying $10,500 to roster Harris, it’s going to be very hard to squeeze in a $10,100 Ellingson and a $8,300 Sinopoli, which is when Kenny Shaw enters the mix.
Shaw has only appeared in one game for the Redblacks this season which was last week against Hamilton. In that one game though, he saw seven targets. If he is going to be seeing opportunities again like that to score fantasy points, then I have no issue with him being apart of Ottawa stacks, or even by himself in tournament lineups. Just make sure that you are only using him in tournaments, as he makes for an overly risky cash game option.
If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, direct them to me on either the slack chat, or my Twitter @Echeney17. Good luck in your contests this week!